Ranking NFL's Most Likely Cinderella Teams in 2025

This week is all about March Madness in college basketball. And one of the most popular parts of the NCAA tournaments are the Cinderella teams; the lowly-seeded squads that go on an unlikely run and end up in the Final Four.

The NFL had a Cinderella team of its own last year. Entering the offseason, the Washington Commanders were coming off a four-win debacle of a season and had the second overall pick in the 2024 draft.

Fast-forward through one excellent rookie season from quarterback Jayden Daniels, and the Commanders were one of the last four teams standing before losing to the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game.

Many of the potential Cinderella teams listed here don't have the mountain to climb that the Commanders scaled last year. And frankly, there likely isn't a quarterback in this year’s draft who will make the sort of impact Daniels did in 2024.

However, all of these teams had losing seasons in 2024, and none of them have had much in the way of playoff success in recent years. But they are in position to stop turning into a pumpkin when the clock strikes midnight in the coming campaign.

What do you mean that's not how the story goes?

6. Jacksonville Jaguars

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Trevor Lawrence

2024 Record: 4-13

Not that long ago, the Jacksonville Jaguars appeared to be an ascending young team. In 2022, they won the AFC South and a postseason game. As recently as two years ago, they had a winning record.

However, the bottom fell out in 2024. Injuries took down key players on both sides of the ball, including quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The team flatlined, and head coach Doug Pederson was shown the door after the final game of the season.

The Jaguars have hired Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen to be the new head coach, and offensive lineman Robert Hainsey (who followed Coen from Tampa to Jacksonville) believes hiring the 39-year-old could mean a quick turnaround in 2025.

"Honestly, Liam had a lot to do with it, because I know him, and I trust him," he said. "I believe in him deeply that he's going to do everything he can to make this organization as best as it can be. So, obviously, that's the main factor (in joining the Jaguars)."

Coen's arrival won't magically fix an offensive line ranked 22nd in the league last year, per Ben Rolfe of Pro Football Network. Or a pass defense that allowed 257.4 yards per game last season—most in the NFL.

But the Jaguars aren't without young talent on both sides of the ball, whether it's wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. on offense or edge-rusher Travon Walker on defense.

If Lawrence can put together a rebound season this year, the Jags could be a surprise factor in a weak AFC South.

5. Las Vegas Raiders

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Maxx Crosby

2024 Record: 4-13

It's been a while since the Las Vegas Raiders received an invitation to the playoff ball. They have made one postseason appearance since 2017 and haven't won a playoff game since their Super Bowl run in 2002.

However, there’s renewed enthusiasm in Sin City this spring. The team hired a Super Bowl-winning head coach in Pete Carroll and has traded traded for quarterback Geno Smith, who won 28 of 52 starts while resurrecting his career with the Seattle Seahawks.

Jacob Robinson and Dianna Russini of The Athletic said no team has improved more since the offseason began than the Silver and Black:

"They added Geno Smith, who is a better quarterback than most think, and culture-setting coach Pete Carroll, but lost several key defensive pieces. Still, imposing pass rushers DE Maxx Crosby, DT Christian Wilkins and DE Malcolm Koonce will help Carroll’s Raiders compete immediately. This offseason, no other team improved as dramatically."

Those losses at linebacker and in the secondary cannot be ignored, and neither can the fact that the Raiders play in a division that placed three teams in the playoffs last year.

However, free agency isn't over yet, and the Raiders are still sitting on over $44 million in cap space. And there's still the NFL draft where the Raiders could get an immediate impact player at No. 6 overall.

Las Vegas isn't going to win Super Bowl LX, and it's unlikely to dethrone the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West. But the Raiders could be one of the NFL's most surprising stories in 2025.

4. Indianapolis Colts

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Anthony Richardson

2024 Record: 8-9

Just about every team on this list has one thing in common: They appear to have a stable quarterback situation.

Every team except the Indianapolis Colts, that is.

After a second straight disappointing season from Anthony Richardson, the Colts brought in competition for the starting job in Daniel Jones, whose own six-year tenure with the New York Giants ended in disappointment and his in-season release a year ago.

However, the 27-year-old told reporters he's looking forward to having the opportunity to compete for a starting job in 2025.

"[It's] an opportunity to come in and compete, and I'm looking forward to that. A lot of respect for Anthony, watching him. I think he's certainly a talented young player, and I think the competition aspect of it brings out the best in everybody. And I think we're both interested in helping this team win games and whatever we can do to help that happen. I'm excited to be here in Indianapolis."

Quarterback is easily the biggest question facing the Colts, although a defense that allowed the fourth-most yards per game in the league also needs to be beefed up.

However, even with a shaky signal-caller situation a year ago, the Colts were 13th in total offense and came within a game of .500.

If additions such as cornerback Charvarius Ward and safety Camryn Bynum make an impact and either Jones or Richardson can be even a league-average quarterback, the Colts could contend in an AFC South where 10 wins won the division in 2024.

3. Arizona Cardinals

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Kyler Murray

2024 Record: 8-9

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has been named to a pair of Pro Bowls in his six seasons in Arizona, and he has received a massive extension from the team.

In those six seasons, though, the 27-year-old is nine games below .500 as a starter and has made just one postseason appearance.

However, Murray told KSB World Radio English (h/t Kevin Patra of NFL.com) he is confident the Redbirds will be an improved team in 2025:

"At the end of the day, I've had some success, but as a unit, in totality, I think the ultimate goal for us is to win the Super Bowl, and we haven't done that yet, and I haven't done enough. I'm looking forward to this next season. I think, as an organization, we're on the up and up, and I'm looking forward to it."

Murray added: "I've only been in the playoffs once. That, in itself, is disappointing to me and frustrating. Got to turn that around. I'm only getting older. But I'm only 27, I'm still young, so we've got time, and I know we're headed in the right direction."

The Oklahoma product has passing-game weapons in tight end Trey McBride and second-year wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. The team also added one of this year's top free-agent edge-rushers in Josh Sweat.

The Cardinals still have flaws, but their $65.7 million in cap space is the most in the NFC. They also have three picks in the top 80, including No. 16 overall.

This also isn't a team that needs massive improvement to get to 10-11 wins and into the postseason conversation.

2. Chicago Bears

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Caleb Williams

2024 Record: 5-12

Given the Chicago Bears managed just five wins total in 2024, it might seem a bit odd to see them so high on this list, especially since they play in a division where they were the only team that didn't make the postseason last year.

However, there's buzz around the Bears in 2025 for a couple of reasons.

The biggest is the arrival of new head coach Ben Johnson, who turned the Detroit offense into a juggernaut last season.

While addressing the media, the 38-year-old was brutally honest about the task that faces Chicago this year:

"It shouldn't be easy. The spring should be hard. Training camp should be hard. Anything worth doing is hard. So, it's going to take a lot of work, it's going to take a lot of effort. In particular, Year 1, we should not be comfortable as we're coming into the springtime. We're going to load these guys up. We're going to see what they can handle. We're going to fail. And that's OK. That's part of how you learn, how you grow, and you get better. And so, we're going to encourage that as a coaching staff. Nothing about this is about making it easier. It's going to be fun."

The cupboard is hardly bare in the Windy City, especially on offense. The Bears have the 2024 No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams and a solid duo of wide receivers in D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze. Chicago also overhauled its defensive front and has a better secondary than many realize.

If Johnson is half the coach many believe him to be and can unlock Williams in the quarterback's second year, the Bears could be one of the NFL's most improved teams.

1. Atlanta Falcons

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Bijan Robinson

2024 Record: 8-9

It's been an interesting offseason for the Atlanta Falcons. To the contrary of just about everyone's expectation, veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins has not been released or traded—at least not yet.

However, head coach Raheem Morris is adamant second-year pro Michael Penix Jr. will be the guy under center in 2025:

"The organization has a quarterback that is certainly bright, that is certainly our future, that certainly can go out and make any single play and play in any single game that you can play in. Those are the things we'll talk about I'm sure moving forward. We'll figure out ways to fix what we need to fix. We'll figure out ways to fix the things we got to get done. But Michael Penix is certainly outstanding. He's certainly one of the guys that's going to play in this league and absolutely dominate for as long as we allow him."

The Falcons are quietly well-positioned to put Penix in a position to succeed next year. They have an elite running back and wide receiver in Bijan Robinson and Drake London, respectively, a top-five overall pick in a contract year in Kyle Pitts and a top-10 offensive line.

Admittedly, the defense is a question mark, specifically a pass rush that ranked 30th or worse in sacks in two of the past three seasons.

However, if that defense improves in 2025 and Penix is half the player Morris is convinced he is, then winning the NFC South and making some noise in the postseason is well within the Falcons' reach.