Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Top 10 MLB Players Most Likely to be Traded in 2025
Now that spring training games are underway, it's safe to shut the door on the 2024-25 MLB offseason. Welcome to baseball season, everyone. We made it.
Huh? What's that? The trade market is still open, you say? And will remain open until the deadline comes and goes in July?
Oh, right. That is true, so we'd better arrange a list of the 10 best players who have some likelihood of getting dealt during the 2025 season.
To be clear, we're not talking about players with the highest likelihood to move. With all respect to the Martín Pérezes and Mike Tauchmans of the MLB world, that particular list is frankly a boring one.
It's more fun to discuss actual good players who could get traded. And for 2025, it's possible to make a star-studded list even if the pool is narrowed to players on teams that are unlikely (i.e., less than a 40 percent chance) to make the playoffs.
Not included are spring training salary-dump candidates on likely contenders, such as Marcus Stroman, Jordan Montgomery, Robert Suarez and Starling Marte. And as fun as it is to imagine Rafael Devers trades, him getting dealt is a long shot.
As for which players did make the cut, let's count 'em down after first glancing at some honorable mentions.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 11
Athletics: RHP José Leclerc, 3B Gio Urshela, OF Miguel Andujar
Chicago White Sox: LHP Martín Pérez, 1B Andrew Vaughn, OF Mike Tauchman, OF Michael A. Taylor, OF Austin Slater
Cincinnati Reds: RHP Nick Martinez, LHP Taylor Rogers
Cleveland Guardians: 1B Carlos Santana, OF Lane Thomas, RHP Paul Sewald
Colorado Rockies: RHP Germán Márquez, LHP Austin Gomber
Los Angeles Angels: LF Taylor Ward, RHP Kenley Jansen, LHP Tyler Anderson, 2B Luis Rengifo, 3B Yoán Moncada, RHP Kyle Hendricks
Miami Marlins: RHP Cal Quantrill
Milwaukee Brewers: 1B Rhys Hoskins, RHP Brandon Woodruff, RHP Aaron Civale, LHP Nestor Cortes
Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP David Bednar, OF Tommy Pham, INF Isiah Kiner-Falefa, LHP Caleb Ferguson
San Diego Padres: C Elias Díaz, OF Jason Heyward
San Francisco Giants: RHP Justin Verlander, RHP Jordan Hicks, DH Wilmer Flores, RHP Camilo Doval, OF Mike Yastrzemski, 1B LaMonte Wade Jr., RHP Tyler Rogers
St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Miles Mikolas, LHP Steven Matz, RHP Erick Fedde
Tampa Bay Rays: 2B Brandon Lowe, RHP Pete Fairbanks, C Danny Jansen, RHP Zack Littell
Toronto Blue Jays: RHP Max Scherzer, RHP Chris Bassitt, RHP Chad Green
Washington Nationals: RHP Michael Soroka, 1B Josh Bell, RHP Jorge López, RHP Lucas Sims
10. 3B Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals
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Age: 33
2024 Stats: 152 G, 635 PA, 16 HR, 2 SB, .272 AVG, .325 OBP, .394 SLG
Contract Status: Year 7 of 9-year, $275M deal
Honestly? I waffled about including Nolan Arenado.
There is a non-zero possibility that he'll be traded before Opening Day. And besides, his status as a star is on the fritz. Since posting 7.7 rWAR in 2022, he's mustered just 4.9 rWAR across the last two seasons.
But if nothing else, Arenado has continued to post and play slick defense.
He's played in 94.6 percent of all possible games since 2014. He's also second in Defensive Runs Saved since 2013, and third in Outs Above Average since 2016.
It's the bat that has deteriorated over the last two seasons, but Arenado still has two marketable abilities: A still-excellent bat-to-ball skill and a penchant for pulled fly balls.
After labeling it a priority in January, the Cardinals are now taking a more chill approach to trading Arenado. But as a reminder, whatever suitor they find that works for them will also have to work for the veteran, who has a no-trade clause.
Potential Landing Spots: New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies
9. RHP Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals
3 of 11
Age: 30
2024 Stats: 65 G, 66.1 IP, 50 H (3 HR), 79 K, 23 BB, 2.04 ERA
Contract Status: $8.2M in 2025, then a free agent
Ryan Helsley was the other notable Cardinal who was popular in trade rumors during the winter, but only to a point.
“It’s something we will always remain open-minded to, but our plan is to have him be part of our organization,” Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic in December.
It was an odd position to take, given Helsley's impending free agency after what will be a transitional year for the Cardinals. But unless the team makes a surprise playoff run, Helsley is bound to end up back on the trading block.
If so, he would stand to be the top reliever on the summer market.
Helsley has a 1.83 ERA across 152 appearances dating back to 2022. Armed with a 100 mph fastball and a devastating slider, he was in the 97th percentile with his whiff rate in 2024.
Health will be key for Helsley, who missed time because of knee surgery in 2021 and a forearm strain in 2023. But if he holds together, he's going to be a hot commodity.
Potential Landing Spots: Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies
8. 1B Luis Arraez, San Diego Padres
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Age: 27
2024 Stats: 150 G, 672 PA, 4 HR, 9 SB, .314 AVG, .346 OBP, .392 SLG
Contract Status: $14M in 2025, then a free agent
In 2024, the Padres won 93 games and dang near dispatched the Los Angeles Dodgers from the playoffs.
Yet before "What gives?" escapes anyone's mouth, FanGraphs only gives the Padres a 36.8 percent chance of playing in the 2025 playoffs. Which is fair, as they had a very bad offseason while the NL West got better around them.
If the Padres do fall out of the race, Luis Arraez won't be the only prominent player they'll have to offer.
Arraez has won three straight batting titles and his career average (.323) is equivalent to that of the second-leading hitter from last season. He has swung and missed 405 times since 2019, a number surpassed by eight hitters in 2024 alone.
There are caveats, of course. Arraez only hits singles and rarely walks. He's also deficient defensively at second base and first base.
All the same, this is a good guy to have at the top of a lineup and his market is likely to reflect that if he becomes available.
Potential Landing Spots: Seattle Mariners, Cincinnati Reds, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants
7. 1B Yandy Díaz, Tampa Bay Rays
5 of 11
Age: 33
2024 Stats: 145 G, 621 PA, 14 HR, 0 SB, .281 AVG, .341 OBP, .414 SLG
Contract Status: Year 3 of 3-year, $24M deal, with $12M club option for 2026
It's a bit of a shocker that Yandy Díaz hasn't been traded yet.
The Rays have their reasons, however. As outlined by Rosenthal in January, the team is currently in a comfortable spot with its payroll and not in a position to subtract bats. Only the Chicago White Sox scored fewer runs in 2024.
The Rays nonetheless face a hard road to the playoffs in 2025. And unless it gets easier—the AL East isn't likely to play along—they're likely to be sellers once again.
After winning the AL batting title with a .330 average in 2023, Díaz's performance slipped in 2024. And given his tremendous size, it's frustrating that he's not more of a slugger.
Still, last year's slip was mostly related to a slow start. After hitting just .211 through May 1, Díaz hit an even .300 the rest of the way. He was basically his usual self for five of the season's six months.
Though their profiles are similar, Díaz will be a better option than Arraez if they're both out there. Even if he doesn't have a lot of power, Díaz at least has some power.
Potential Landing Spots: Seattle Mariners, Cincinnati Reds, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants
6. RHP Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
6 of 11
Age: 29
2024 Stats: Did not pitch while recovering from Tommy John surgery
Contract Status: Year 4 of 5-year, $56M deal, with $21M club option for 2027
Sandy Alcantara's name briefly appeared in rumors in December, though it was via harmless comments by Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix.
"You said it: We never rule out anything. We listen to everything. Sandy is a really important piece for our organization. I'm really excited to see him pitch on Opening Day," Bendix told Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.
It is unsurprising that nothing came of those remarks, but this is a "give it time" situation. The Marlins aren't going anywhere in 2025, and Alcantara has plenty of trade value to reclaim.
Alcantara peaked as the NL Cy Young Award winner in 2022, pitching 228.2 innings with a 2.28 ERA. It's an outlier of sorts, yet this is a pitcher who's been 30 percent better than average for his whole career.
It's quite the pedigree to live up to, yet Alcantara should be up to it. He's more than a year removed from his surgery in October 2023. And while reiterating that he isn't looking to trade the righty, Bendix noted that Alcantara has touched 98 mph in a side session.
Even if Alcantara is merely the pitcher he was in 2023, when he had a 4.14 ERA, he'll stand to be a valuable trade chip. If he returns to ace form, that much more so.
Potential Landing Spots: New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves
5. CF Luis Robert Jr., Chicago White Sox
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Age: 27
2024 Stats: 100 G, 425 PA, 14 HR, 23 SB, .224 AVG, .278 OBP, .379 SLG
Contract Status: Year 6 of 6-year, $50M deal, with $20M club options for 2026, 2027
Contrary to Alcantara as a Marlin, it is surprising that Luis Robert Jr. is still a White Sox.
The White Sox got "a lot of interest" in Robert during the winter meetings in December, right around when they dealt Garrett Crochet to the Boston Red Sox. And per Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic, the Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants both had trade talks with Chicago.
Then again, the White Sox were said in November to have a "really high price" on Robert. He's worth it in the abstract, but not in reality after a down year in 2024.
As such, the question is whether Robert can reclaim value during the season.
Ideally, he will recapture the form that led to 38 homers, 20 steals and a .857 OPS in 2023. Projections for his season aren't quite that bullish, but a couple see him as having a 25-25 campaign in him.
Either way, durability is always the unknown with Robert. But if he stays healthy and the power and speed are there, he's bound to draw a crowd.
Potential Landing Spots: San Francisco Giants, Kansas City Royals, New York Mets
4. SS Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays
8 of 11
Age: 26
2024 Stats: 81 G, 336 PA, 4 HR, 5 SB, .225 AVG, .277 OBP, .322 SLG
Contract Status: Year 3 of 3-year, $33.6M deal
Even after an offseason in which they signed Anthony Santander, Max Scherzer and Jeff Hoffman and traded for Andrés Giménez, the Blue Jays are a playoff long shot.
FanGraphs has their playoff odds at just 38.2 percent, and that is next to a projection for a 82-80 record.
If so, they may be doomed to become a seller. And in that case, Bo Bichette will look like even more of a goner.
Whereas the Blue Jays at least tried with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bichette says he hasn't been approached about an extension. Which may be just fine by him, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported in January that Bichette has "no real interest" in staying in Toronto long-term.
His actual trade value will hinge on how well he bounces back from a lost 2024 season. He'll need to avoid injuries and get back to the player he was between 2021 and 2023, when he was a .300 hitter with 20-homer power.
Whether Bichette will stick at shortstop beyond 2025 will eventually be an interesting question. But as a rental candidate for the remainder of the season, teams are sure to see him as at least playable there.
Potential Landing Spots: Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers, Milwaukee Brewers
3. RHP Michael King, San Diego Padres
9 of 11
Age: 29
2024 Stats: 31 G, 30 GS, 173.2 IP, 144 H (17 HR), 201 K, 63 BB, 2.95 ERA
Contract Status: $7.8M for 2025, with $15M mutual option for 2026
There was recent buzz about the Padres trading Michael King before Opening Day, but that is unlikely to happen now.
According to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, San Diego is inclined to keep its current rotation together. Which makes sense, as it is the team's best hope of rising above its low odds for a playoff run.
But if such a run doesn't materialize, they won't need to sell teams too hard on King.
He was a breakout candidate going into 2024 and he more than lived up to the hype. He especially dominated with a 2.34 ERA in his last 21 starts, and was so hard to square up that he landed in the 99th percentile for exit velocity.
Factoring in King's relatively affordable salary, there's an argument for him as the best starter who could be available this summer.
As such, look for the Padres to try to rent him out for multiple controllable players if they do eventually shop him.
Potential Landing Spots: Baltimore Orioles, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves
2. RHP Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres
10 of 11
Age: 29
2024 Stats: 33 GS, 189.1 IP, 137 H (18 HR), 224 K, 65 BB, 3.47 ERA
Contract Status: $13.8M for 2025, then a free agent
After being at the center of rumors for basically the entire winter, it feels like a small miracle that Dylan Cease is still on the Padres.
This could still change, and perhaps soon enough to result in Cease being at the center of a spring training trade for the second time in as many years. But for now, he's another guy that the Padres are inclined to keep for Opening Day.
If the fates push the Padres into a selling position, it will be interesting whether teams value King or Cease more. But in the meantime, the edge goes to Cease.
Though he's almost twice as expensive as King, Cease's track record is just a wee bit more formidable. He boasts a 3.52 ERA over 716 innings dating back to 2021, with a league-high 891 strikeouts.
It's also possible that Cease hasn't peaked yet. Last year saw him set a career high for innings, and his stuff rated better than that of any National League hurler.
As with King, the price to acquire Cease will likely consist of multiple controllable players if the Padres end up putting him out there.
Potential Landing Spots: Baltimore Orioles, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves
1. 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
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Age: 25
2024 Stats: 159 G, 697 PA, 30 HR, 2 SB, .323 AVG, .396 OBP, .544 SLG
Contract Status: $28.5M for 2025, then a free agent
Though the Blue Jays tried to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr., it's hard to give them an "atta boy" considering that they were never close to success.
As for what comes next, ESPN's Jeff Passan wrote Tuesday that the Blue Jays are "more inclined to start the season with Guerrero in their lineup and reassess the possibility of a trade as the July deadline approaches."
It feels like a prelude to a blockbuster just in a vacuum, and that much more so in context of the club's 38.2 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Both as a trade candidate and as a free agent, Guerrero is destined to frustrate teams' valuation models. He has a history of inconsistency, and the broader history of bat-first, right-handed-hitting, right-handed-throwing first basemen is not great.
Then again, he's also in his mid-20s and his average output for the last four years consists of a .293 average, a .887 OPS and 34 home runs.
Regardless of what happens after 2025, Guerrero is the kind of guy who could entirely change a franchise's sight lines. Even a middling contender could put its eye on the World Series with him aboard for October.
Potential Landing Spots: New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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