Scott Miller's Starting 9: Yankees Face Critical July Decisions

1. Hot Times, Summer in New York City

The trend lines are going in the wrong direction if you’re wearing pinstripes. The Yankees started this week in third place for the first time since April 20.

They owned at least a share of first place in the AL East for 20 consecutive days, from May 26 through June 14. They held at least a share of first place for 48 of 66 days this season, and owned sole possession of first place for 39 of 66 days.

Now here come the Orioles, and here comes July, and you wonder how many more rabbits manager Joe Girardi is capable of pulling out of his NY cap.

You wonder how many more magic tricks pitching coach Larry Rothschild can perform.

Yes, here comes July. And how the Yankees front office performs over the next few weeks may become every bit as important as how Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia play.

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While ultracompetitive, the AL East is the weakest it’s been in years. It is eminently winnable, there for the taking by any of four clubs (discounting Boston, where word has it Pablo Sandoval just clicked “like” on the Yanks, O’s, Blue Jays and Rays).

One of baseball’s best prospects, right-hander Luis Severino, 21, currently is 3-0 with a 1.73 ERA in six starts at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre after being promoted from Double-A Trenton earlier this summer.

Might a man who hasn’t even debuted with the Yankees help push them down the stretch?

“He’ll tap us on the shoulder when he’s ready,” Billy Eppler, the Yankees’ assistant general manager, said during a conversation with Bleacher Report in Anaheim on Monday. “Every start, it seems like he’s better and better.”

If that tap on the shoulder comes quickly, maybe it will change some of the Yankees’ direction in July.

Because the answer is, yes, a man who hasn’t even debuted with the Yankees is going to be called upon as they look for reinforcements in the Bronx for August and September.

But will it be Severino or another prospect, Bryan Mitchell? Because of innings limits, both would likely be used to help strengthen the bullpen, rather than the rotation.

Might that man currently be pitching in Cincinnati: Johnny Cueto or Mike Leake?

While Eppler is watching the Yankees right now, general manager Brian Cashman is home, working the cellphone, texts, Instagram, Snapchat and presumably every other form of communication available to today’s modern GMs.

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“There are scenarios at Triple-A,” Eppler says. “We have some choices internally if the external doesn’t present itself with some reasonableness.”

In a still-developing trade market, clubs are jockeying for position. Prices are still being set. The Phillies, with Cole Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon. The Brewers, with Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza. The Reds.

In New York, Sabathia’s ERA isn’t that far under 6.00, and Girardi reiterated the same sad, old mantra Monday: “You see during the course of the game, he has really good innings, and then he [doesn’t]. It comes down to location. That’s the bottom line, location. He has to locate.”

Masahiro Tanaka’s elbow remains more fragile than a carton of eggs. Michael Pineda looks like an ace for two or three starts and then looks like an imposter. Ivan Nova returned from Tommy John ligament transfer surgery last Wednesday and, while he was sensational in throwing six and two-thirds scoreless innings, it’s just one start.

“Not quite yet,” Nova told me when I asked whether he felt like he was back to his old self. “I still have a long way to go, but I’m feeling better and better.

“It was a good day. My fastball command, my changeup; I threw some good curves.”

His average fastball velocity was 93.2 mph against the Phillies on Wednesday, according to FanGraphs.

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“The last thing you get when you come back is velocity,” said Nova, who next starts Tuesday night in Anaheim. “I think that’s a really good sign of what can be if I keep working hard.”

With Adam Warren contributing and Tanaka needing extra rest, Girardi and Rothschild currently have cobbled together a six-man rotation: those two, Sabathia, Nova, Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi.

And uncertain as that is, it’s not as if that’s the only area in need of upgrade in July. The Yankees’ second baseman in Monday’s series opener in Anaheim was Jose Pirela, he of the .224/.250/.328 slash line. The other option is Stephen Drew.

And in the outfield, Carlos Beltran, 38, with one more year left on his contract after this season, is hitting .258/.309/.432 with seven homers and 30 RBI. And there are foul poles that move quicker.

Still, the Yankees ranked second in the majors with 363 runs scored as the week began. And Jacoby Ellsbury (knee sprain) has started an injury rehab assignment in Tampa.

“Early on, we felt that the last 14 days or so of the season would decide things, and that’s the script that’s playing out right now,” Eppler says. “Sitting here at the midpoint, I think it’s depth that’s going to decide it.”

As far as July blueprints, there are far worse clues to follow than that one.

2. Fourth of July, and St. Louis-Style Barbecue

Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

Midseason, and the Cardinals continue to dry-rub the rest of the National League in one of the most surprising runaway stories in years.

They lost ace Adam Wainwright to a ruptured Achilles tendon in April. First baseman Matt Adams underwent surgery on his right quadriceps in late May and is on the 60-day disabled list. Slugger Matt Holliday is out with a strained right quad.

And despite this: 

• The Cardinals became the first major league team to win 50 of their first 75 games since the 2005 world champion Chicago White Sox.
• Their 51-24 record is the franchise’s best start since 1944, when the team, the world champion Cardinals, started 51-21-2.
• They not only own baseball’s best record, but it’s not even close: At 51-24, the Cardinals own the game’s best record by six games over Kansas City (44-29).
• They do not lose at home: The Cardinals are 29-7 at Busch Stadium, 22-17 on the road. Their home record is the majors’ best, and it is the second-best home start in franchise history. According to STATS LLC, only the 1885 St. Louis Browns started better at home, at 31-4.
• Also, their home start is the best in baseball’s divisional era, starting in 1969, bettering the Montreal Expos’ 28-7 home start in 1979.
• The Cardinals’ run differential is +98, easily outdistancing the Blue Jays’ +86. And the next-closest NL team to St. Louis is the Dodgers, who are “only” at +62.
• If the Cardinals play just .500 baseball the rest of the way—well, that’s impossible because they have 87 games remaining, so let’s even say they go 43-44 the rest of the way—they will finish 94-68.
• As the St. Louis Post-Dispatch pointed out (per ESPN's Sunday night broadcast), entering the weekend’s Cubs series, since 1926, every Cardinals fan who has lived to 25 or older has seen the team win at least one World Series title.

And…

3. Goldy Locks In

Poised to start his second consecutive All-Star Game, Arizona first baseman Paul Goldschmidt remains one of the best players in the game seen by the fewest.

He toils away in desert obscurity. But, oh, does he leave an impression on those who see him.

Like, say, Diamondbacks president of baseball operations and Hall of Famer Tony La Russa.

“Everything about him reminds me of Albert Pujols,” La Russa told me the other day. “I never disrespect anybody, and I’m not comparing Goldy to anybody.

“But I will tell you there is nobody in this game better than Paul Goldschmidt. You can pick anybody in the game, and that player is not better than Paul Goldschmidt.”

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La Russa, of course, spent 11 summers managing Pujols, whose ticket to the Hall of Fame was punched long ago.

Goldschmidt, 27, is only in his fourth full season, so it’s way premature to project too far into the future. But as colleague Zachary Rymer wrote last week, there is no question Goldschmidt is one of the game’s best hitters.

And for now, La Russa considers himself very fortunate in Arizona to encounter another first baseman who can shoulder the responsibility of being an organizational foundation piece.

“He reminds me in every way of Albert,” La Russa says. “All of it. Work ethic. Preparation. He cares about his teammates. Productivity.

“Our goal here is to do what we did in St. Louis, and we’re on our way: to find a nice core of teammates who complement each other.”

To that degree, the Diamondbacks’ signing of Cuban star Yasmany Tomas last winter is beginning to pay off. After 31 games at third base, Tomas has played 16 in right field and is looking more and more comfortable at the plate and in the outfield. In fact, from the beginning of spring training until now, Tomas has advanced more in the outfield, manager Chip Hale says.

“We’re starting to see progress there,” Hale says. “We kind of stunted him by putting him at third base. He has the natural ability to play the outfield. And he’s hitting behind Goldy for a reason. He’s done a good job of protecting him.

“He’s progressed a lot better than a lot of us thought he would, quite honestly.”

The Diamondbacks envisioned Tomas hitting seventh or eighth in just his third month in the majors, for example. Not fourth. But he’s impressed Arizona with his attitude and with is ability to protect Goldschmidt.

Tomas is hitting .315/.356/.429 with three homers and 27 RBI in 58 games, which could help Goldschmidt in one other way…

4. Triple the Fun in the NL This Year?

One thing the injury to Miami slugger Giancarlo Stanton does this year….

5. Mets Set with Matz

So Mets uber-prospect Steven Matz did this on Sunday:

Maybe it shouldn’t be such a surprise: The kid not only led the Pacific Coast League with a 2.19 ERA at the time of his call-up, he also was hitting .304 for Triple-A Las Vegas.

Mets manager Terry Collins said he spoke with Vegas manager Wally Backman four times before the major league club summoned Matz.

“And four times, Wally said, ‘It’s time—this kid's bored here,’” Collins told reporters, via the New York Times.

6. Philly Phollies

As good as he’s been for so many years, and as young and vital as he still seems, it is really hard to soak in the reality that Hall of Famer Pat Gillick is 77.

He tried to step away after the Phillies won the 2008 World Series, retiring and turning the general manager job over to Ruben Amaro Jr. But that didn’t work, and Gillick’s consultant role with the club expanded more and more, and then when Phillies president David Montgomery took a medical leave, Gillick became acting president.

All of which led to Monday’s hiring of Andy MacPhail as Philadelphia’s new president and a fresh start for an organization in desperate need of one.

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In a rare public appearance, Phillies co-owner John Middleton introduced MacPhail as “a rare combination of both old-school experience and new-age thinking.”

Good description. MacPhail’s hiring is the best thing to happen to the Phillies in at least the past two years, perhaps longer. It was MacPhail who made several moves to help return the Orioles to relevance while running Baltimore as president of baseball operations from 2007 to 2011. He also was general manager of the Twins when they won the 1987 and 1991 World Series, and he was president of the Chicago Cubs from 1994 to 2006.

He will take over as president from Gillick after the season, taking these next three months to familiarize himself with the organization.

“I think my three main functions are going to be to read, to watch and to listen,” MacPhail said at the news conference. “And then hopefully within three months, I’ll have a clear idea of what I think is appropriate and needs to be done.”

8. Chatter

• Not that the idea of Jimmy Rollins as a place holder at shortstop before top prospect Corey Seager’s arrival needs much reinforcing, but one Dodgers source tells Bleacher Report that Seager is a better player than center fielder Joc Pederson. And Pederson started this week with 19 homers and a .383 on-base percentage so far as the Los Angeles center fielder.

• Seager, by the way, will not be playing in the Futures Game on July 12 at the All-Star break in Cincinnati. Prelude to a call-up?

Scott Halleran/Getty Images

• The Yankees’ Brett Gardner batted .489 with four homers and 11 RBI in a 10-game stretch beginning June 18. “I think he’s become a complete player, not just a leadoff hitter who plays defense,” Girardi says. “He drives in runs, he does a lot of things. He’s not just a singles hitter.”

• Loved Cubs manager Joe Maddon’s plea to reporters for tweaks to instant replay, calling for an “independent group there to really research the video. That’s what I think it screams for, as opposed to working umpires who are actually on the field. I think you should get a bunch of nerds back there [in New York] who know how to look at a videotape, and then come to a conclusion. I think it would be more interesting that way.”

• Everybody loves the cuddly rookies with whom the Cubs are stocked, and if there was any question, the club currently is in a stretch in which it is on national television nine times in 14 games.

• Zack Greinke earned the win Sunday for the Dodgers, which is notable because it was his first victory since May 5. Over his previous 10 starts going into Sunday, Greinke had surrendered zero or one earned run in eight of them.

• In his past 29 games going into Monday, the Angels’ Albert Pujols had 15 homers and 30 RBI. No coincidence that he is nearly two years removed from his last knee surgery, and last winter he was able to run through his normal offseason workout regimen for the first time in at least three offseasons.

• After going 20-7 in May, the Twins were 10-16 in June entering this week.

8. Weekly Power Rankings

1. St. Louis Cardinals: What the heck is their password for all of this success?

2. Andy MacPhail: Fixing that crack in the Liberty Bell would be easier than the Phillies’ job.

3. Kansas City Fans: After the All-Star Game, they are expected to meet with Hillary Clinton, Mike Huckabee, Jeb Bush and others to discuss voting strategies.

Jay Blakesberg/Associated Press

4. Grateful Dead: Hey, when did the “Core Four” suddenly morph from Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte and Jorge Posada to Mickey Hart, Bill Kreutzmann, Phil Lesh and Bob Weir? Quick, pass me a pint of Ben & Jerry’s Cherry Garcia so I can sit down with Bill Walton and discuss.

5. Fourth of July: Ah, hot dogs, ice cream and Bomb Pops. Remember those? I bet Terry Francona does. The Indians manager confided the other night that he ate 17 frozen grape fruit bars. Seventeen! “No, that’s not a lie,” he said. “They’re healthy, so if one’s good, 17’s gotta be real good.” I want Francona as my nutritionist.

9. Tim Flannery, Analyst: How Nuts Is He?

Eric Risberg/Associated Press

When Tim Flannery retired as the San Francisco Giants third base coach after their third World Series title in five seasons, baseball lost one of its last remaining true characters.

Good thing is, fans watching at home gained one.

Flannery, an accomplished musician who now takes his band, The Lunatic Fringe, on tour during the summer as well as the winter, is dabbling as an analyst on Giants broadcasts and on MLB Network.

Which is fabulous, because those listening at home now get inside information such as this, via the San Francisco Chronicle.

Discussing starter Jake Peavy, whom Flannery has known for years going back to when they both were in a San Diego Padres uniform, the former coach explained that legend Roger Clemens had taught Peavy some tricks of the trade, including strategic use of Icy Hot, the ice/heat balm designed to aid muscle pain.

“Clemens taught Peavy that, when your arm is hurting, you put the hot stuff on the places that you don’t want the hot stuff. It takes your mind off of the other pain,” Flannery explained recently on a Giants telecast, referring to Peavy’s, uh, private parts. “That’s what I told our guys when [Peavy] pitched against us.

“I’d tell the guys, ‘He’s going to be out there yelling and screaming, but he’s not mad at you. He’s got hot stuff on his nuts.’”

9a. Rock ‘n’ Roll Lyric of the Week

And a Happy Fourth of July to all…

“I'm a 45 spinning on an old Victrola

“I'm a two-strike swinger, I'm a Pepsi Cola

“I'm a blue jean quarterback saying 'I love you' to the prom queen

“In a Chevy

“I'm John Wayne, Superman, California

“I'm a Kris Kristofferson Sunday morning

“I'm a mom and daddy singing along to Don McLean

“At the levee

“And I'm a child of a backseat freedom, baptized by rock and roll

“Marilyn Monroe and the Garden of Eden, never grow up, never grow old

“Just another rebel in the great wide open on the boulevard of broken dreams

“And I learned everything I needed to know from John Cougar, John Deere, John 3:16”

—Keith Urban, "John Cougar, John Deere, John 3:16"

Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

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