Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: MLB DraftKings Studs and Duds for June 29
There's only one word to accurately describe Monday's crop of starting pitchers: yikes.
No ace takes the mound during a nine-game slate in which C.J. Wilson tops the pricing chart. Making matters worse, two of the evening's best choices—Clay Buchholz and Lance McCullers—each face difficult adversaries. Can anyone really trust Buchholz against the Toronto Blue Jays or McCullers versus the strikeout-allergic Kansas City Royals?
Like it or not, everyone will have plenty of his or her budget left for hitting. As a result, DraftKings has inflated costs for most position players. There's no need to go dumpster-diving for any offensive firepower.
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Pitching Studs
Lance McCullers, Houston Astros ($7,700) vs. Kansas City
The notoriously pesky Royals rank last in strikeouts and are one of a dozen teams with a weighted runs created plus (wRC+) of 100 or better, the baseline for an above-average offense.
Yet an affordable, rolling McCullers still looks better than the alternatives. Through eight starts, the rookie has registered a 2.33 ERA, 2.44 fielding independent pitching (FIP) and 10.10 strikeouts per nine innings.
On a normal day, this matchup would come with a caution label. He has lasted five or fewer innings in half of his outings and has issued 10 walks over his past three, a fear upon his rapid promotion. But when Mike Leake and Jimmy Nelson are the "safe" alternatives, McCullers' upside justifies the risk.
Mike Bolsinger, Los Angeles Dodgers ($6,700) at Arizona
Mike Bolsinger doesn't seem like a terrible play, which is good enough to make him one of Monday's top choices.
He has cooled down considerably, issuing a 5.06 ERA over his last five starts. Yet he still sports a 3.07 FIP with 55 strikeouts through 58 innings. During a dreadful June, he has offered a consolatory 10.12 K/9 rate.
This matchup doesn't jump off the page, especially since Bolsinger has fared better at home. Despite having to fight off yawns to finish this segment, he beats rolling with R.A. Dickey.
Joe Blanton, Kansas City Royals ($4,800) at Houston
Can you smell the desperation? Joe Blanton, who retired last year, is facing the top pick in McCullers and a dangerous Houston Astros lineup that can take him deep. He also, however, has a 1.73 ERA, 24 strikeouts and three walks through 26 innings.
| June 17 | MIL | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| June 22 | @ SEA | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
He also costs less than most star hitters against a strikeout-prone lineup. The pitching catalog is ugly enough to play McCullers and Blanton, hoping one claims the victory in a low-scoring affair.
Pitching Duds
C.J. Wilson, Los Angeles Angels vs. NY Yankees ($8,400)
Help us all, DraftKings has marked a pitcher with a 3.92 ERA and 3.80 FIP as the marquee draw. In its defense, Wilson has registered 48 strikeouts over his last 43.1 frames. Oh yeah, he has also surrendered five runs or more three times during that stretch.
The New York Yankees wield a top-five offense against lefties, which showed when they torched the Los Angeles Angels southpaw for six runs on June 7. In a slate with no choice but to punt pitching, gamers might as well fully commit.
Mike Pelfrey, Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati ($4,600)
After reading all this grim pitching analysis, you notice Mike Pelfrey's 3.06 ERA and $4,600 price tag. The 6'7", contact-inducing veteran can also work deep into games. Don't do it.
His 4.32 K/9 rate is simply unusable. Not only will he not rack up extra points for punchouts, opponents are bound to scatter hits into open terrain eventually.
Hitting Studs
OF Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles ($4,800) vs. Texas
After missing five games with right shoulder soreness, Adam Jones returned to the Baltimore Orioles lineup on Sunday. While it's usually best to let a player dust off the cobwebs, the matchup makes him an exception.
A .361/.415/.617 hitter against lefties, Jones gets southpaw Wandy Rodriguez. Nobody would blame you for going with Ryan Braun and/or Carlos Gomez at an identical $4,800 instead, but it's not an either/or with so little money allotted to pitching.
2B/3B Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers ($4,400) at Arizona
Justin Turner for life! Or until he finally cools off. The cruising third baseman is only getting better with more playing time, boasting a .320/.392/.584 slash line with 11 homers. Allen Webster has surrendered 13 runs through three starts, collecting nine strikeouts while walking 10. Why not turn to Turner again?
C Stephen Vogt, Oakland Athletics ($4,300) vs. Colorado
No need to punt catcher tonight, so pony up for Stephen Vogt against righty David Hale. The Oakland Athletics aren't facing the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field, but David Hale and his .935 OPS against lefties still holds up as an exploitable opponent.
1B Adam Lind, Milwaukee Brewers ($4,300) at Philadelphia
Adam Lind, a .300/.373/.517 hitter against righties this season, will tee off against Sean O'Sullivan. Opposing lefties have clobbered the Philadelphia Phillies starter with a .343/.409/.718 slash line and 10 homers. Throw in Citizens Bank Park, and Lind is an essential play at first base.
OF Chris Young, New York Yankees ($3,500) at LA Angels
As long as he's facing a lefty, continue to ride the red-hot Chris Young. The 31-year-old is hitting a blistering .388/.453/.731 with five homers against southpaws this season. Even if nobody needs such a cost-conscious bargain, he's too valuable to pass up.
Hitting Dud
C Brian McCann, New York Yankees ($4,500) at LA Angels
Brian McCann has a .720 OPS against lefties and a .601 OPS away from Yankee Stadium. With the highest-priced catcher facing Wilson at Angel Stadium, play Vogt or Yasmani Grandal instead.
Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.
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