Stock Up, Stock Down on MLB's Top 2015 Trade Targets, Week 12
Five weeks. That's how much time each of MLB's 30 franchises have to figure out whether they're going to be buyers or sellers at this year's non-waiver trade deadline, which arrives on July 31.
While that might seem like plenty of time, it's really not, especially when you consider that two-and-a-half months into the regular season, only two teams—the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies—are more than 10 games out in both their division races and for a wild-card berth.
That's one of the reasons you'll find a handful of players from both clubs included on our weekly look at the top trade targets, a list that will grow as more teams fall out of contention.
How has the past week, which for our purposes ran from June 16 to June 22, impacted the trade value of top targets like Carlos Gomez and Cole Hamels? Let's take a look.
Stock Up: CL Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
1 of 10
Weekly Stats
3 GP, 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 9 K, 2-for-2 SV
Overview
While Jon Morosi of Fox Sports has linked Aroldis Chapman to the Washington Nationals, most scouts don't believe that Cincinnati is going to trade its electric closer, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
That doesn't mean that teams aren't going to call and ask about his availability, of course, and his performance last week, when he struck out the side in each of his three appearances, stands as a perfect example of why that's the case.
Currently on paternity leave, the 27-year-old's 16.09 K/9 rate leads all relievers with at least 10 saves on the season.
2015 Stats
32 GP, 3-3, 2.01 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 31.1 IP, 22 H, 19 BB, 56 K, 15-for-16 SV
Stock Down: SP Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds
2 of 10
Weekly Stats
1 GS, 0-0, 5.06 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 5.1 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
Overview
Johnny Cueto's stock falling has little to do with his mediocre performance last week and everything to do with Cincinnati's decision to push his next start back from Tuesday to Friday, as reported by MLB.com's Mark Sheldon.
Rather than start Cueto against the Pittsburgh Pirates, a team he has dominated over the course of his career (18-4, 2.13 ERA, 0.98 WHIP), the Reds will instead have him make his next start against the New York Mets on Friday, a team he hasn't been nearly as successful against (3-3, 4.12 ERA, 1.42 WHIP).
It's a puzzling move, one that makes you wonder whether the stiff elbow that forced Cincinnati's ace to miss a start earlier this season is acting up once again. Because of that, teams are surely going to want to see Cueto deliver a string of strong performances before attempting to make a move for him.
Cincinnati hasn't committed to trading Cueto despite the fact that he could possibly leave the team as a free agent after the season. While he's only a rental, a healthy Cueto is still one of the most valuable trade chips that any team has to play, and the Reds would be wise to play that chip sooner rather than later.
2015 Stats
13 GS, 4-4, 2.98 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 90.2 IP, 70 H, 16 BB, 86 K
Stock Down: CF Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee Brewers
3 of 10
Weekly Stats
4 PA, .500/.500/.750 (2-for-4), 1 2B
Overview
It's been a rough season for Carlos Gomez, who missed nearly half of April with a hamstring injury, was hit in the head by a fastball in mid-May and has missed eight of Milwaukee's last 11 games due to an injured hip.
All signs point to the Brewers hanging onto Gomez, one of the best all-around players in the game when healthy, but Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel made a compelling case for Milwaukee to part ways with Gomez this season in response to a question from one of his readers:
"Trade him now, get the most for him in theory. Trade him in the offseason, still do well but probably not get as much for him. Trade him next season, the return is drastically reduced. No way he re-signs with the Brewers as things currently stand. Scott Boras will be shooting for the moon with him in free agency.
"
Of course, Gomez will have to show that he can stay healthy—and productive—between now and the trade deadline for the Brewers to bring back a package that's commensurate with his talent.
2015 Stats
44 GP, .275/.313/.440, 19 XBH (5 HR), 24 RBI, 7 BB, 44 K, 6-for-10 SB
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Stock Down: SP Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
4 of 10
Weekly Stats
Did not pitch
Overview
You can bet that Philadelphia's front office is breathing a sigh of relief that Cole Hamels' strained right hamstring, which forced him to skip last week's start, appears to have been little more than a bump in the road.
According to MLB.com's Todd Zolecki, Hamels emerged from a bullpen session this past Sunday feeling fine and on track to make his next start Wednesday in New York.
While Hamels is unquestionably one of the game's elite starters, nothing kills a player's trade value like an injury. Many believe the Phillies are taking an unnecessary risk by continuing to hold onto their ace and potentially failing to prevent that exact scenario.
Much has been made of Hamels' contract as a major sticking point for interested teams, but in reality, it's not quite as burdensome as we've been led to believe.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe touched on this recently, noting that the $94.5 million that Hamels is owed between 2016 and 2020 is substantially less than the top free-agent starters—Cueto, David Price and Jordan Zimmermann—will wind up getting on the open market.
2015 Stats
14 GS, 5-5, 2.96 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 94.1 IP, 74 H, 31 BB, 103 K
SP Scott Kazmir, Oakland Athletics
5 of 10
Weekly Stats
2 GS, 1-0, 2.19 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 12.1 IP, 11 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 12 K
Overview
While he's not on the level of Johnny Cueto or Cole Hamels, Scott Kazmir continues to prove to teams that he's a legitimate front-line starter who can help a contender down the stretch.
A stomach issue forced him from his start against San Diego on June 16 after only 81 pitches and five innings of work, but the southpaw rebounded with his first career win over his former team, the Los Angeles Angels, pitching into the eighth inning and allowing only one earned run on June 21.
With concerns over a sore shoulder that forced him to miss a start earlier this month behind him, Kazmir will be a terrific consolation prize for teams that either miss out on or can't afford to swing a deal for Cueto or Hamels.
2015 Stats
14 GS, 4-4, 2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 83.1 IP, 68 H, 32 BB, 79 K
Stock Up: SP Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds
6 of 10
Weekly Stats
1 GS, 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 7 IP, 2 H, 3 BB, 7 K
Overview
Mike Leake isn't on the same level as Johnny Cueto, Cole Hamels or Scott Kazmir, and because of that, he figures to be far less expensive for a team to acquire once Cincinnati decides to officially put him on the trading block.
That, along with performances like the one he delivered against Miami last week, are among the reasons why there figure to be multiple suitors for the 27-year-old, whom CBS Sports' Jon Heyman says has "outperformed his rep as a mid-rotation starter."
Unlike teammate Johnny Cueto, who is going to command a high asking price regardless of how he's throwing the ball, Leake's value to the Reds as a trade chip will be dictated by how well he performs. If he's able to build off of his last start and continue to outperform his rep, he may bring back more in a trade than originally anticipated.
2015 Stats
14 GS, 4-4, 4.01 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 89.2 IP, 83 H, 26 BB, 55 K
Stock Down: CL Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
7 of 10
Weekly Stats
3 G, 0-0, 9.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 3 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 K, 1-for-1 SV
Overview
It was a forgettable week for Jonathan Papelbon, who gave up meaningless runs in non-save situations against St. Louis and New York (AL) and saw his ERA rise by nearly a full run, from 1.05 to 1.88. While it's a temporary setback, it's not going to have any long-term impact on his trade value.
Papelbon's $13 million vesting option for 2016 and occasionally polarizing personality are always going to be issues, but they don't seem to bother the Chicago Cubs, the latest team to show interest, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post:
"That the Cubs are interested in Papelbon could mitigate some of the concerns about Papelbon’s behavior, since they are run by team president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer, who were top executives with the Red Sox when they drafted Papelbon and used him as their championship closer. In other words, people who know him well are fine with reacquiring him.
"
One of the game's most consistent and reliable closers for the better part of a decade, it's no secret that Papelbon wants out of Philadelphia and the Phillies want to move him. As long as he doesn't make a habit out of having weeks like the one he just had, both sides should be able to get what they want.
2015 Stats
28 GP, 1-1, 1.88 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 28.2 IP, 23 H, 7 BB, 32 K, 13-for-13 SV
Stock Down: SS Jean Segura, Milwaukee Brewers
8 of 10
Weekly Stats
24 PA, .167/.167/.167 (4-for-24), 1 RBI, 1 R, 4 K, 1-for-1 SB
Overview
After hitting safely in 10 of his first 12 June games (15-for-48, .313 BA), Jean Segura's bat has gone cold. The four hits he collected last week are the only four that he has since June 14, and they came at the expense of a putrid Colorado pitching staff in hitter-friendly Coors Field.
Even with that hot start to the month, Segura has been one of June's least productive players. His .556 OPS ranks 19th out of 27 qualified shortstops and 165th out of 185 qualified players, regardless of position.
While his stock is down, the 25-year-old will still be one of the most sought-after shortstops on the market if Milwaukee makes him available, given his youth, past success and team control through the 2018 season.
2015 Stats
55 GP, .272/.301/.369, 12 XBH (3 HR), 18 RBI, 6 BB, 34 K, 9-for-10 SB
Stock Even: SS Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies
9 of 10
Weekly Stats
22 PA, .364/.364/.409 (8-for-22), 1 2B, 3 RBI, 7 K
Overview
While his customary power has decided to take some time off—last week's double is the only extra-base hit over his last 46 plate appearances—Troy Tulowitzki continues to swing a hot bat for Colorado.
He leads all qualified shortstops with a .368/.419/.529 June slash line and has quickly made people forget about a slow start (at least by his standards) that saw Tulowitzki hit .284 with a .759 OPS through the first two months of the regular season.
Whether or not Colorado will actually trade him remains one of baseball's great mysteries, but there's little doubt that a number of teams would have interest despite his shaky medical history and expensive contract, which still has more than $90 million remaining on it.
2015 Stats
62 GP, .309/.337/.478, 25 XBH (7 HR), 37 RBI, 11 BB, 52 K
Stock Up: IF/OF Ben Zobrist, Oakland Athletics
10 of 10
Weekly Stats
21 PA, .333/.364/.810 (7-for-21), 5 XBH (2 HR), 8 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Overview
Troy Tulowitzki's missing power might have relocated to Oakland and Ben Zobrist's bat, as the 34-year-old collected five extra-base hits last week, falling a home run short of the cycle against San Diego on June 17.
Zobrist has already begun to attract attention from contenders including the Washington Nationals. Talks between the two sides didn't go far, according to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, but the A's expressed interest in Nationals outfielder Michael Taylor as part of a potential deal.
Due the balance of his $7.5 million salary, which is more than reasonable for a player with his track record of success, his ability to get on base consistently and his versatility in the field, the Nationals won't be alone in their pursuit for long.
2015 Stats
39 GP, .243/.325/.434, 17 XBH (4 HR), 24 RBI, 17 BB, 13 K
Unless otherwise linked/noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs and are current through June 22. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts.
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR
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