US Open Golf Tournament 2015: Top Odds, Predictions and Storylines for Thursday
The opening round of the 2015 U.S. Open at Chambers Bay is finally upon us, and it shouldn't disappoint.
Not only will the links-style course offer a refreshing backdrop for the year's second major, but playing conditions should also make for a fascinating weekend.
The 7,600-yard, par-70 beast in the Pacific Northwest is an unknown commodity, and some lengthy par fours and difficult putting conditions figure to shake things up as the tournament gets underway.
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According to CBS Sports's Kyle Porter, Chambers Bay touts the three longest par fours in U.S. Open history. The 14th hole measures 546 yards, the 11th clocks in at 537 yards and the 13th sits at 534 yards. That's one way to generate intrigue on the back nine.
As favorites such as Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson get ready to tee off, here's a rundown of what to expect when play begins, with the following odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
| Rory McIlroy | 7/1 |
| Jordan Spieth | 8/1 |
| Phil Mickelson | 16/1 |
| Dustin Johnson | 18/1 |
| Justin Rose | 18/1 |
| Rickie Fowler | 25/1 |
| Henrik Stenson | 25/1 |
| Adam Scott | 28/1 |
| Bubba Watson | 28/1 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 28/1 |
| Jason Day | 33/1 |
| Jim Furyk | 33/1 |
| Jimmy Walker | 33/1 |
| Sergio Garcia | 33/1 |
| Martin Kaymer | 40/1 |
| Matt Kuchar | 40/1 |
| Patrick Reed | 40/1 |
| Billy Horschel | 50/1 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 50/1 |
| Brooks Koepka | 50/1 |
| Ryan Moore | 50/1 |
| Tiger Woods | 50/1 |
Storylines and Predictions
Tricky Course Conditions Favor Mickelson
The greens at Chambers Bay are seemingly never-ending, and it doesn't help that putting surfaces are projected to run extra fast in the days ahead.
Lee McCoy provided a look at just how hard and dry the course was on Tuesday afternoon:
"Walking across the chipping range and practice area felt like a stroll across a concrete parking lot, and it was hard to imagine how some of these balls will ever stop, especially with the slopes on the greens," SB Nation's Brendan Porath wrote.
That could spell trouble for some of the tour's less disciplined putters.
Conversely, fast greens could offer more polished putters a chance to separate themselves from the pack early on.
In that regard, keep an eye on Spieth (27.55), Matt Kuchar (27.86) and especially Mickelson (27.95), who rank first, fourth and seventh in putts per round respectively.
"Many believe Mickelson has the shots necessary to succeed on this course outside Seattle," PGATour.com's Sean Martin wrote. "The fairways offer some forgiveness off the tee—'You have a bigger margin for error,' he said—while the firm conditions and severe slopes should play into his imagination."
After achieving runner-up status in six previous U.S. Opens, Mickelson could have a golden opportunity to kick-start his pursuit of a career grand slam on Thursday.
Prediction: Mickelson shoots two-under (68) while a majority of the field struggles to play under par.
Tiger Surprises with a Steady Showing
Tiger Woods has been anything but consistent lately, but signs are pointing toward the 39-year-old finding some semblance of an equilibrium when he tees off at Chambers Bay.
Although his game is still getting tweaked all over, Woods told reporters he's beginning to feel a bit more confident.
"I had to make a commitment and I have," Woods said, according to ESPN's Bob Harig. "And things are starting to come together piece by piece. All the big change is already in and now it's just refining it and actually now playing more golf, playing more tournament golf."
For Woods' sake, he'll need to hope a rapid turnaround takes shape on Thursday if he wants to remain competitive.
At the Memorial, Woods finished last at 13-over par, including a third-round 85, which marked the worst 18-hole effort of his career. A month prior, Woods finished tied for 69th at the Players Championship, finishing three-over for the weekend.
But considering the mystery shrouding Chambers Bay may act as a great equalizer, Woods' apparent comfort with the course could pay dividends.
"I'm starting to get the feel for, more than anything, for this golf course and what I need to do off the tees and where to miss it around the greens to certain pins," Woods said, according to USA Today's Steve DiMeglio. "And playing some of the back boards. You can't play them all. Because if you use it too much, actually, it can roll off the greens and into the bunkers."
Prediction: Woods shoots two-over (72) and carries confidence into Friday.
Rory Continues Surging
The World No. 1 is back where he belongs and is primed and ready to thrive on a links course.
"I really like the golf course," Rory McIlroy said, according to Reuters' Mark Lamport-Stokes (via Yahoo Sports). "It sets up well for my game. You've got to hit driver. It's a course where you're going to see a lot of guys hit fairways and hit greens but when you hit greens, you can still be 50, 60 feet away from the pin."
With the links layout providing unimpeded and wider looks at fairways than most traditional U.S. Open courses, McIlroy should be able to prosper early and often behind a powerful driver. To date, he ranks eighth in average driving distance (305.5 yards) and No. 1 overall in total driving.
The key, then, will be remaining composed on approaches and in his short game as a way to facilitate one of the day's most complete rounds.
Given that McIlroy's greens-in-regulation percentage of 70.45 ranks seventh on the tour, attention will likely shift to his def touch around the flagstick.
Though he's done a steady job all season, ranking 13th in three-putt avoidance, he's struggled to crack the top 60 in terms of total putting.
There will be challenges galore for McIlroy and his peers, but his track record is strong enough to suggest he'll be among the strongest competitors on Day 1.
Prediction: McIlroy finishes Thursday inside the top 10.
All statistics courtesy of PGATour.com unless noted otherwise.
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