Raphael Guerreiro Ready to Be Portugal's Next Big Star
Lorient's Portuguese left-winger/left-back Raphael Guerreiro, 21, should strive to increase his reputation at the UEFA European Under-21 Championship.
While diminutive in size—5'7" and 138lbs—Guerreiro is a big talent and could be a future star for the Portuguese national team.
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Guerreiro used to run around in a Caen shirt.
Caen are not an illustrious club, but they have had rough diamonds in the past such as Bernard Mendy, M'Baye Niang, Romain Hamouma, Yoan Gouffran and Youssef El-Arabi.
"My father is a Benfica fan, and I'd love to play for them," Guerreiro said, per Eurosport (h/t Andrew Gibney at FourFourTwo). "But my dream is to play for Real Madrid."
Taking into account Benfica's expansive scouting network and French-born Guerreiro being of Portuguese ethnicity, maybe he wasn't rated by his father's favourite club.
Not being flagged by Benfica or another top club enabled Lorient to buy Guerreiro from Caen for €2.5 million/£2.1 million in 2013 as a 19-year-old.
Guerreiro's projected value has risen to €7.5 million/£5.4 million, per Transfermarkt.
Like two former Lorient players, Guerreiro's transfer stock is blooming.
Laurent Koscielny | Tours → Lorient: €1.5 million/£1.3 million (2009; 23 years old).
Laurent Koscielny | Lorient → Arsenal: €12.5 million/£10.4 million (2010; 24 years old).
€11 million/£9.1 million profit.
Kevin Gameiro | Strasbourg → Lorient: €3 million/£2.4 million (2008; 21 years old).
Kevin Gameiro | Lorient → Paris Saint-Germain: €11 million/£10 million (2011; 24 years old).
€8 million/£7.6 million profit.
Exponential Growth
Guerreiro always possessed that quick first step and willingness to run.
Experiencing a quantum leap in development this past season, Guerreiro has complemented his athleticism with proficiency in the attacking half.
- Serge Aurier is jockeying Jordan Ayew.
- Marquinhos doesn't cover Aurier.
- Yohan Cabaye makes the crucial mistake to ignore Guerreiro and press Ayew.
This sequence of play leaves Guerreiro as the free man.
He latches on to Ayew's pass and drives the ball past Salvatore Sirigu to score in Lorient's 2-1 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain.
It is a career-changing moment for Guerreiro because, from there, his game started clicking.
Why didn't Cabaye follow Guerreiro?
Lorient manager Sylvain Ripoll played Guerreiro in front of left-back Vincent Le Goff to neutralise Lucas Moura.
Guerreiro was goalless during the 2013/14 Ligue 1 season, averaging 0.7 shots per game, so his surging run and emphatic finish caught Cabaye off guard.
Forced to make an instant decision, Cabaye wrongly judged Guerreiro as a decoy for Ayew.
Cabaye made the percentage play because he underestimated Guerreiro and so did most of Ligue 1.
The goal against Paris Saint-Germain foreshadowed Guerreiro's scoring prowess.
"I do feel I've made a breakthrough because I never used to score before," Guerreiro said, per beIN Sports (h/t Ligue 1's website). "Things changed overnight so it's been a bit of a shock for me and also for my mates—they can't believe my shots are suddenly flying in."
Guerreiro's attacking statistics were curbed by interchanging to left-back 33.3 per cent of the time he started a Ligue 1 game.
He prefers playing in an advanced role because he is not a natural defender.
He completed 1.1 tackles per 90 minutes and only succeeded 63.5 per cent of the time he challenged for the ball.
"You have to defend more at left-back," Guerreiro said, per beIN Sports (h/t Ligue 1's website). "I'm enjoying myself more in midfield [playing as a left-winger]."
Ripoll has thought about permanently moving Guerreiro into midfield.
"We needed more going forward, more speed on the flanks," Ripoll said, per beIN Sports (h/t Ligue 1's website). "I quickly decided [Guerreiro] could give us that."
Scoring wise, Guerreiro matched the output of Lucas.
Despite not being valued at €40 million/£32.6 million and playing for 16th-placed Lorient, Guerreiro's scoring and creating is comparable to Lucas.
This is why Guerreiro is a must-watch prospect.
To illustrate Guerreiro's growth, here are snippets of two scouting reports, per the Scouting Network (h/t Wyscout):
"[Rennes 1-0 Lorient, November 7, 2014] ... a small, lean build, left-footed, left-sided midfielder, [Guerreiro] showed good mobility and acceleration but lacked intelligent movement to find space.
[Lille 1-0 Lorient, August 10, 2013] ... average height and build, [Guerreiro is a] left-footed left-back. He competed well throughout the game, he was quick to get tight to his man and didn't allow him to turn.
"
Entering the 2014/15 season, Guerreiro was a gritty left-sided player with speed but had no end product.
Now Guerreiro is a scoring threat from the wings.
Hands on knees in defeat, Facundo Roncaglia's reaction was "Oops...my bad."
Roncaglia allowed "[Portugal's] shortest player," per O Jogo (h/t Andy Brassell at WhoScored), to score a game-winning, stoppage-time, diving header.
Leading into the play, Roncaglia shrugged his shoulders as if Guerreiro was insignificant.
Zipping into the box unmarked, Guerreiro nodded Ricardo Quaresma's cross past Nahuel Guzman as Roncaglia watched on.
Roncaglia's inattentiveness was Otto Porter-bad, but it again illustrated how underrated Guerreiro is.
"It's with enormous pride that I wear the Portugal shirt, and I hope to wear it for many years," Guerreiro said, per the Portuguese Football Federation's website (h/t Tom Kundert at PortuGoal). "I know that to return to the Selecao I have to keep working very hard, starting from tomorrow."
In Portugal's 1-0 win over Argentina, Guerreiro achieved what Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi failed to do—score.
Yet Guerreiro talked about getting back to training to prove he wasn't a one-hit wonder.
It is a Ronaldo-esque approach: "Hard work beats talent when talent fails to work hard."
"I have a huge amount of admiration for Ronaldo. It's amazing to spend time with him," Guerreiro said, per beIN Sports (h/t Ligue 1's website). "He asked me a few basic questions like where's Lorient, where am I from, how many brothers have I got."
If Guerreiro continues his career trajectory, in five years' time he will be a star on the Portuguese national team answering questions from impressionable newcomers.
Thriving at the UEFA European Under-21 Championship will continue to enhance Guerreiro's burgeoning transfer stock.
When not specified, statistics via WhoScored.
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