Stock Up, Stock Down on 2015 Trade Values of MLB's Top Targets
It may be difficult to believe, but the 2015 MLB season is rapidly approaching its annual trade deadline on July 31.
With every deadline comes plenty of trade conversations and rumors between buyers and sellers. 2015 could have one of the busier summers to date, as there is a bevy of players with potential to be moved over the coming weeks.
Organizations across the league will be keeping tabs on those available players, making sure they receive the best possible value in a potential deal. With players like Cole Hamels, Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gomez beginning to play better, interested teams will have to pay up in order to acquire their services.
Let's take a look around the league at some of baseball's top trade targets and see how their latest performances have affected their value.
Stock Up: Jean Segura
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2015 Stats: .285/.317/.394, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 8 SB, 91 wRC+
For a team in need of a shortstop upgrade, Jean Segura's impressive month at the dish is bittersweet. While Segura is showcasing why he's a coveted asset, he's also improving his trade value and the return he'll command.
The 25-year-old is hitting .294 and has scored seven runs in June. After being reinstated from the 15-day disabled list on May 29, Segura has hits in 13 of 16 games.
The Brewers don't have to trade Segura, and according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, he's "close" to untouchable. He's 25 and under contract through the 2018 season, making him a valuable asset for Milwaukee going forward.
But with teams like the New York Mets, San Diego Padres and Baltimore Orioles needing a dependable shortstop, Milwaukee's resolve to keep Segura figures to be tested throughout the summer.
With Segura playing well, the price interested teams must pay isn't getting cheaper.
Stock Up: Jonathan Papelbon
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2015 Stats: 12-for-12 in save opportunities, 1.05 ERA, 2.44 FIP, 10.52 K/9 2.45 BB/9
Jonathan Papelbon seems to always find himself in trade discussions during the summertime, and 2015 is no different.
The problem—as it has been since he inked a four-year, $50 million deal in 2012—is his contract.
Papelbon is owed the remainder of his deal this season and is pegged to make $13 million in 2016 if he finishes 55 games in 2015 or 100 between 2014-15 (Papelbon has appeared in 24 games this season and 90 over the last two years). Pabelbon also has a lengthy no-trade list, making a potential move quite the hurdle.
While the money is certainly an issue, teams will continue to sniff around Papelbon as he continues to be one of the game's best relievers. He's perfect in save opportunities in 2015 and ranks in the top 10 in ERA.
Most of Papelbon's value is centered around his noose of a contract, but in terms of on-field quality, there aren't many more established options still producing in the present.
Stock Down: Aaron Harang
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2015 Stats: 4-7, 83 IP, 3.04 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 6.40 K/9, 2.39 BB/9
The Phillies will get value back for free-agent-to-be Aaron Harang this summer, but the right-hander has faltered as of late.
As Randy Miller of NJ.com said at the end of May, "as long as he stays healthy, Harang probably is a lock to be elsewhere in July. He could bring a nice return, too, because he's pitching like an ace and he's on a one-year, $5 million contract that won't scare anyone off."
But Harang has been roughed up in his last two starts. He's allowed 12 earned runs and 13 hits over those two contests, with more walks than strikeouts. For context, Harang had only allowed 16 earned runs in his first 11 outings.
With the 37-year-old's value hinging on every pitch, two consecutive subpar outings won't give the Phillies much negotiating power.
But Harang has reinvented himself over the past two seasons, proving to be a dependable innings-eater. Pitching-needy organizations litter the trade market, so Harang's services will remain a hot commodity. For the Phillies sake, a return to form for Harang would be well-timed before the deadline.
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Stock Up: Scott Kazmir
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2015 Stats: 3-4, 71 IP, 2.79 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 8.49 K/9, 3.55 BB/9
Of the available hurlers on the trade market, Scott Kazmir has developed into a cheap alternative to the likes of Cole Hamels and Johnny Cueto.
His 2015 campaign hasn't been without blemish, though, as the southpaw nursed a sore shoulder at the end of May.
After a pain-free 30-pitch bullpen session, Kazmir returned to the mound June 5 against the Boston Red Sox. Kazmir failed to make it out of the fifth inning against Boston, surrendering nine hits and three earned runs.
But the free-agent-to-be put any injury concerns to bed with his latest performance against the Texas Rangers. Kazmir twirled eight innings of one-hit, no-run ball to cement his status as one of the game's top trade targets.
Kazmir took a different approach against the Rangers, which manager Bob Melvin mentioned to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
"You look up and he's throwing 90 in the first, and he's throwing 95 in the seventh," Melvin said. "He didn't get too amped up early in the game and try to force things. He just kind of went with the flow, spotted his fastball early, mixed in all his pitches and really kind of revved it up as he went along."
If Kazmir can continue his dazzling 2015, a contender would be mighty lucky to land him for the stretch run.
Stock Up: Carlos Gomez
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2015 Stats: .270/.309/.433, 5 HR, 24 RBI, 6 SB, 101 wRC+
There hasn't been much to get excited about in Milwaukee this season, which has taken eyes away from the all-around brilliance of outfielder Carlos Gomez.
Gomez's numbers are down from their customary levels, but the 29-year-old has shown signs of heating up in the last few weeks. He's hitting .310 in June after .235 and .265 marks in April and May, respectively.
Gomez is an interesting trade chip for any team in need of outfield production. He's under contract through next season and is owed just $9 million. Nearing his age-30 season, Milwaukee would be wise to flip Gomez's talents for emerging prospects.
Heyman certainly thinks so:
"Milwaukee has said it's very unlikely to trade star catcher Jonathan Lucroy or shortstop Jean Segura, but Gomez makes more than a little money and will almost surely leave via free agency after next year. 'He'd be a huge piece,' one rival GM said -- though of course, it'd have to be a team that needs a center fielder or would consider moving its center fielder to left.
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There's always injury risk with Gomez, but his talent cannot be questioned. With his production improving at the plate, the Brewers should be able to kick-start their rebuild with an impressive return for their All-Star outfielder.
Stock Up: Johnny Cueto
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2015 Stats: 4-4, 85.1 IP, 2.85 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 8.65 K/9, 1.48 BB/9
When Johnny Cueto missed multiple starts with a tender elbow, the right-hander and the Cincinnati Reds each received quite the scare, but for vastly different reasons.
Cueto is closing in on a payday potentially approaching $200 million this offseason, while the Reds wouldn't be able to capitalize on an injured Cueto on the trade market. Fortunately for both sides, Cueto has returned looking like the perennial Cy Young candidate he's been over the past few seasons.
Cueto has allowed just five earned runs over his last three starts, striking out 22 in that span. The right-hander recorded back-to-back games with nine strikeouts against the San Diego Padres and the Chicago Cubs.
No team wants to give up premier talent for a rental, but Cueto is definitely worth the risk. He's affordable for the remainder of the year and has Cy Young ability that's hard to find.
Expect Cueto to be wearing a different uniform by year's end and the Reds to have vastly improved their farm system.
Stock Up: Troy Tulowitzki
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2015 Stats: .304/.336/.490, 7 HR, 33 RBI, 108 wRC+
It remains to be seen if the Colorado Rockies will actually pull the trigger and trade All-Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. But if a deal does indeed go down, the Rockies will be pleased with Tulo's torrid stretch during June.
Tulowitzki is hitting a healthy .381 this month with 13 RBI. His numbers are nowhere near his career averages, but considering he's hitting over .300, that's a pretty scary thought.
The Rockies took shortstop prospect Brendan Rodgers with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2015 MLB draft, only increasing speculation that a potential Tulowitzki blockbuster is on the horizon. The latest reports, however, indicate that Colorado brass remains hesitant in parting ways with its star.
"He seems ambivalent about a trade now, and the Rockies-owning Monfort brothers seem even less interested," wrote Heyman on Tulowitzki's status. "They recently explained to another team: 'He's the face of the franchise.'"
Tulowitzki is under contract through 2020 with a team option in 2021 and is owed $20 million in each of the next four seasons. He won't come cheap, but if a team is going to pony up and meet Colorado's asking price, Tulo's hot bat is an encouraging sight.
Stock Up: Cole Hamels
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2015 Stats: 5-5, 94.1 IP, 2.96 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 9.83 K/9, 2.96 BB/9
Cole Hamels' trade value has been a hot topic for the better part of a year now. While there are multiple schools of thought on that, Hamels is doing his part by continuing to produce at a consistent level.
Hamels started 2015 off on the wrong foot, but the southpaw has lowered his ERA under 3.00. After giving up six runs to the Miami Marlins on May 2, Hamels rattled off six consecutive starts with at least seven innings and less than three runs allowed. Sure, he was roughed up by the Cincinnati Reds in his most recent outing, but Hamels is showing why there's been so much speculation regarding his status.
Hamels' run of good fortune has come with an increase in velocity, according to Jake Kaplan of the Philadelphia Inquirer:
"As pitchers typically do throughout a season, Hamels also saw his velocity increase from April to May. He capped May with an average fastball velocity of 93.81 mph, an improvement of more than 1 mph from his April average (92.45), according to the PITCHf/x pitch-tracking system. It's the earliest in a season he has reached an average velocity that high for a month.
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Hamels is owed $23.5 million in each season from 2016-2018 with a $20 million team option in 2019. That's actually a bargain in today's market for a starting pitcher like Hamels, considering his consistency throughout his career.
With a blockbuster looming, Hamels has given the Phillies plenty of bargaining power with this recent stretch.
Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs. Contract details courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
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