Full Scouting Report for the Miami Heat's Top 2015 Draft Targets
The Miami Heat are in a good position at No. 10 in the NBA draft based on need and what should be available.
The Heat covet shooting on the current roster and for the future. Team president Pat Riley sees the evolution of the league and realizes shooting is at a premium.
“Guys who can make threes, guys that are playmakers and guys that can defend,” Riley said last month, per Joseph Goodman the Miami Herald. “And, so, I’m not saying the perimeter is what needs to be filled. We’re going to take the best player that’s available unless there is someone there we like at a specific position.”
The ideal target could be someone who provides shooting and can potentially replace Dwyane Wade if he opts out of his contract to explore free agency. Or the Heat could add a shooting big man to bolster their frontcourt and provide a possible replacement to Hassan Whiteside if he bolts in free agency after next season.
Let's take a look at the options and how they fit.
Guards
Kentucky's Devin Booker is one of the youngest players in the draft (he doesn't turn 19 until October) and is in the conversation for the best shooter. He knocked down 41.1 percent of his threes and 82.8 percent of his free throws as a freshman. His jumper is picture-perfect with great balance and a quick and consistent release.
His shooting would make him a nice option off the bench for Miami right away, similar to his role at Kentucky.
The big question is whether Booker can do anything outside of shooting the ball. He was on such a deep and talented team at Kentucky that he didn't need to venture much outside of his role as a shooter. His opportunities to create off the bounce were limited. He was a smart passer and solid ball-mover, but he didn't create for others.
As Riley said, the Heat would like to pick up a guy who can shoot the three and defend, and Booker might not really fit as the three-and-D wing that many teams are after.
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He was solid defensively for Kentucky and benefited, like the Harrison twins, from having shot-blocking trees behind him. He also has good size at 6'6" for a shooting guard and fared well at the NBA combine. But what he showed at Kentucky from game to game didn't suggest he has Klay Thompson-like potential to turn into a great two-way player.
The guy considered to have more potential to be a factor on both ends is international wing Mario Hezonja. He shot a solid 37.9 percent from deep over 54 games for FC Barcelona last year. He's also a better athlete than Booker and has better size (6'8"), which is why he might not be available when the Heat pick at No. 10.
"He doesn't have the grace and smoothness that Klay Thompson does, but he can shoot and he's a nasty, cocky b---h," a scout told Bleacher Report. "He's strong, not super athletic but athletic."
The worry with Hezonja is whether he has the feel for the game to become a dependable player in the league. He played only 15.4 minutes per game last season for FC Barcelona, and that dropped to 11.3 minutes per game in the Liga ACB playoffs.
With their jumper and age—Hezonja is only 20—Booker and Hezonja have the potential to develop into starters in the league for a long time.
Bigs
The two shooting big men who could be available at No. 10 are Frank Kaminsky and Myles Turner.
Turner would make sense if the Heat feel like they will not have the cap space to re-sign Whiteside in the summer of 2016. Turner has a high ceiling on the defensive end and was one of the top shot-blockers in college basketball as a freshman, ranking 12th nationally in block rate (12.3 percent), according to kenpom.com.
If Turner can add some weight and strength to his skinny frame, he has a chance to be a solid rim-protector. He's 7'0" with a 7'4" wingspan, per DraftExpress, and good timing as a shot-blocker.
He also has potential as a shooter and tried to prove he can knock down outside shots at Texas, taking 62 threes as a freshman. He may not have the range to consistently knock down NBA threes—he made just 27.4 percent of his threes at UT—but he was solid in the 15-17 feet range. He made 42.7 percent of his two-point jumpers, according to Hoop-Math.com.
Picking Turner is an investment in his potential, but you have to be willing to wait a few years. If the Heat want an immediate return, which makes sense considering the window is closing on an older roster, Kaminsky makes more sense if he's still on the board.
The Wisconsin big man was the best player in college basketball by both the eye test and the analytics. He put up the best offensive rating (126.2) of the last 10 years for players who used at least 28 percent of their team's possessions, according to kenpom.com's database.
Kaminsky's jumper is proven (41.6 percent from three as a senior), and similar to Anthony Davis, he played guard growing up and has the ball-handling and passing skills of a smaller player.
"He's the most skilled guy in the draft," the scout told Bleacher Report.
Wild Card
The loyalty that Wade has toward the Heat (and vice versa) makes it hard to believe that the two sides will not work out a deal to keep him around, but the Heat could see Luol Deng bolt this summer. Deng, like Wade, also has one year left on his contract with the option to opt out this summer.
It could be difficult to retain Goran Dragic, Wade and Deng, and there's a higher priority to keep Wade and Dragic around.
So the possibility of losing the starting small forward either this summer or next could convince Riley to go after the best player left at that position.
The two players he'd likely be choosing between are Stanley Johnson and Sam Dekker.
Both players have the athleticism and size to play the 3 in the NBA—Johnson is 6'7", and Dekker is 6'9"—but picking either one would be straying from the desire to add shooting to the roster.
Johnson is not a bad shooter—he shot 37.1 percent from deep as a freshman—but he's better as a slasher and playing around the rim. The same goes for Dekker, who is good in space and at making plays off the dribble, but his jumper is inconsistent. He did have a five-game stretch in the NCCA tournament where he shot 50 percent from deep, but he was just a 33.1 percent three-point shooter on the season.
In the end, the Heat might just take the best player available on their board. Even if they believe it will be difficult to re-sign Deng, they may decide adding shooting depth is more important. Plus, they could find a short-term replacement at small forward in free agency.
The good news is that there is enough depth in this draft that the Heat should find good value at No. 10 for any of their needs.
C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.
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