French Open 2015 Men's Final: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka Predictions

It may have taken an extra day, but the two semifinal favorites advanced in the men's draw of the 2015 French Open.  Either top-ranked player Novak Djokovic or Stan Wawrinka will become the first Roland Garros champion not named Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer since 2004, with the former looking to complete the career Grand Slam.

Indeed, Djokovic has succeeded Nadal as the best clay-court player in the world after years of being the bridesmaid.  Sunday will be his third final in four years, having dropped the 2014 and 2012 finales to Nadal.  For once, Djokovic will be the overwhelming favorite to capture his first French Open, a far different proposition from what he's typically faced.

Some might question how much Djokovic will have left in the tank playing for the third straight day.  He could have spent much of Saturday resting if he had finished off Andy Murray in four sets, but the Brit ended up pushing things the distance before Djokovic finished him off, 6-1, in the fifth set.  

The dominant finish was sudden given that Murray had won the previous two sets, but it's par for the course for one of the best finishers on the men's tour:

Assuming Wawrinka's most realistic shot at victory would come in four or five sets, he'll need to overcome one of the fittest players on tour.  That could be a slight concern given how visibly tired he was during his four-set win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the semis, an observation his own coach noted, per the Guardian's Simon Cambers:

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It was not maybe his best match in the week but if you look at the circumstances I am very happy anyway. It’s always good to go through though matches like that in a grand slam tournament at one stage. Very happy with the way he was fighting despite being a little bit tired maybe in the second set already.

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In fairness, Friday was the hottest day of the tournament, a sudden rise from the unseasonably cool temperatures Paris had experienced throughout the two weeks.  Still, even ignoring whatever fatigue Djokovic or Wawrinka may have, the latter holds a 17-3 edge in 20 head-to-head meetings, including a 5-1 advantage on clay.

In Grand Slams, however, the two have played a remarkable series of classics.  Each of the past four major meetings have gone five sets, with Djokovic somehow winning each one.  Wawrinka has been closer than anyone to consistently upsetting Djokovic without actually pulling the trick, though it's important to note that each of those four meetings came on hard courts at either the Australian Open or U.S. Open.  

Still, tennis observers aren't discounting Wawrinka's chances if he puts Djokovic on the defensive with his serve:

However, Wawrinka has also yet to win a clay court-title this year and has reached the semis in only one previous event prior to Roland Garros (in Rome, where he lost to Federer).  Conversely, Djokovic is undefeated on clay this year, and Murray was the first player in seven matches to even take a set.

Those expecting an easy coronation for Djokovic will likely be surprised, as 2014 Australian Open champ Wawrinka has established himself as a Grand Slam threat.  However, as the Federer-Nadal era closes, Djokovic has ascended to the top of the ATP world.  This is his time to join Federer and Nadal as the eighth man with a career Grand Slam.

Prediction: Djokovic in four sets.