Belmont Stakes Odds 2015: Last-Minute Updates and Picks
American Pharoah will be the 14th horse to show up in New York for the Belmont Stakes (G1) still alive to win the Triple Crown since 1978. They all came up short, a dozen on the track and one due to an injury on the eve of the race.
The drought since Affirmed last won the Triple Crown just keeps growing, currently at 37 years. Can the talented Bob Baffert trainee finally produce the result horse racing fans have been wanting to witness for nearly four decades?
The colt certainly will be the heavy favorite when the field of eight spring from the gate at 6:50 ET at Belmont Park.
With the race fast approaching, let's look at a few last-minute updates and predictions on the outcome.
Belmont Park Sells Out
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If you do not have your ticket to witness history, you are out of luck. The New York Racing Association announced that all 90,000 tickets have been sold including general admission.
“Tickets for the Belmont Stakes are officially sold out,” stated Christopher Kay, chief executive officer and president of the New York Racing Association, per the NYRA website. “For the convenience of fans who have secured Belmont Stakes Day tickets in advance, all those without tickets to the Belmont Stakes should not come out to Belmont Park on Saturday, June 6.”
This will be the first time the NYRA has capped off ticket sales to the third jewel of the Triple Crown. Last year 102,199 showed up to root on California Chrome in his Triple Crown bid.
Fans using the Long Island Rail Road were stuck at the track awaiting service for hours after the race.
"(The attendance cap) will not only result in an enhanced experience for Belmont guests, but will further improve access to and from the Belmont property on Saturday," NYRA stated, via Frank Angst of Blood-Horse. "It will also complement Saturday's post-race concert, which is anticipated to further stagger the exit from the Belmont property following the final race."
American Pharoah Is Chalk in Early Betting
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With $327,948 in advanced wagering in the win pool on Friday, American Pharoah is the betting favorite at odds of 2-5, down from his 3-5 morning-line odds, according to the Belmont Stakes' official website.
Frosted and Materiality share second-choice honors at 7-1. Frosted has slightly more money wagered, with $34,137 compared to Materiality with $33,604.
Here are the early betting odds:
1. Mubtaahij 17-1
2. Tale of Verve 21-1
3. Madefromlucky 15-1
4. Frammento 24-1
5. American Pharoah 2-5
6. Frosted 7-1
7. Keen Ice 21-1
8. Materiality 7-1
Look for Sharp Rise in Betting Handle
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With interest in American Pharoah’s Triple Crown bid and a blockbuster 13-race card on tap Saturday, Belmont Park should see a surge in betting handle.
The first two days of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival had sharp increases in betting handle, according to the New York Racing Association.
Friday's 10-race program, featuring five stakes and an on-track handle of $2,539,404, is over last year's 10-race Friday program of $1,884,197.
Thursday's eight-race program also showed increases over last year's nine-race program. Thursday's on-track handle rose from $834,673 in 2014 to $1,058,065 in 2015.
Jump in the betting pools. There will be millions to be won.
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American Pharoah Will Look Like a Monster
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American Pharoah has looked like a monster, winning six races in a row including the first two jewels of the Triple Crown. Now along with his connections, he will be dressed like one before and after the Belmont Stakes.
Blood-Horse (h/t ESPN.com) reports that Monster Energy has entered into a sponsorship agreement with Zayat Stables, the owner of American Pharoah. Monster Energy branding will be included on trainer and owner team jackets, caps and apparel as well as American Pharoah's horse blanket, gear, barn and at various promotional events.
The deal was managed by New York City-based Leverage Agency, who inked a deal last year for California Chrome, who was sponsored by Skechers.
Ahmed Zayat of Zayat Stables is known for his buoyant enthusiasm; let’s hope he does not drink too many energy drinks before the race.
Pletcher Looking to Spoil Triple Crown Party
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Trainer Todd Pletcher is a seven-time Eclipse award-winning trainer who has won the Belmont Stakes twice.
Pletcher won with the filly Rags to Riches in 2007 and Palace Malice in 2013. In addition, he has saddled the Belmont Stakes runner-up four times.
Commissioner missed in a photo last year at 28-1. His other bridesmaids were Stay Thirsty (2011), Dunkirk (2009) and Bluegrass Cat (2006).
Materiality is a legitimate contender if he runs with the form he showed in his impressive Florida Derby victory.
Madefromlucky is no slouch, coming into the race off a win in the Peter Pan Stakes (G2). Last year’s Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist used the Peter Pan as a prep.
There is probably no other trainer based in New York who would like to spoil the Triple Crown party more than Pletcher.
Prediction for Show
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Frosted was the only runner in the 18-horse Kentucky Derby field that made up significant ground in the stretch. The colt ran a career-best two back winning the Wood Memorial (G1), and that was after a throat procedure after he packed it in quickly in the stretch in the Fountain of Youth (G2) three back.
He looked like the winner that day midstretch and just stopped, weakening to finish fourth. I loved trainer Kiaran McLaughlin's decision to switch jocks from Irad Ortiz to Joel Rosario after that race.
The colt is by Tapit, who sired last year's Belmont winner Tonalist, and the mare Fast Cookie ($557,480), who is a graded stakes winner, taking the Grade 2 Cotillion at Philly back in 2003.
Prediction for Place
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Keen Ice was seventh in the Kentucky Derby and skipped the Preakness, a route six of the last dozen Belmont Stakes winners used. The colt was dismissed at 45-1 in Louisville.
His trip was not great, saving ground early but then getting bottled up behind foes as they turned for home, and he did not get into running form until about midstretch. He altered toward the outside, bumping into Frammento, and then showed some late interest.
This guy is bred to handle 1 ½ miles and is by two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, out of an Awesome Again mare. Curlin sired 2013 Belmont winner Palace Malice, and he himself landed second in the 2007 edition behind the filly Rags to Riches.
The colt is going to need to run a career top but seems to be thriving this week at Belmont Park and looks primed for a top effort.
Prediction for Win
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American Pharoah gets the call despite the short price. The colt has won his last six starts by a combined 30 ¼ lengths, and it does not look as if his seven-length score in the Preakness (G1) took that much out of him. The colt really has had just one tough race in his last four, which should give him enough leftover energy to handle the 1 ½ miles.
His Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has been in this position three times; Silver Charm (1997) missed by just a length, and Real Quiet the following year lost in the last jump. Who knows how well War Emblem would have run if he had broken better in the 2002 race.
Jockey Victor Espinoza tries for the Triple Crown for the third time, coming up short last year in a fourth-place finish aboard beaten favorite California Chrome and with War Emblem.
The colt has some stamina on the sire side, being by Pioneerof the Nile, who ran second in the 2009 Kentucky Derby. Pioneerof the Nile was sired by Empire Maker, the winner of the Belmont in 2003. American Pharoah's dam side is more sprint oriented, but the colt seems talented enough to overcome it.
Betting odds and statistics provided by Equibase
Follow Michael Dempsey on Twitter @turfnsport
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