Belmont Stakes 2015 Odds: Latest Vegas Lines, Payout Info and Predictions
American Pharoah maintains a healthy odds-on favorite status leading up to Saturday's 2015 Belmont Stakes, but it's no secret that history is working against him.
After taking both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes in resounding fashion, the Zayat Stables colt now enters Belmont Park eyeing history. But all he has to do is look back at the 13 who were in this same exact position over the last 37 years, only to fall flat in the 1 ½-mile marathon race.
I'll Have Another in 2012 and California Chrome in 2014 proved unable to complete the trifecta after winning the first two legs. Could the third time in the last four years be the charm?
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2015 Belmont Stakes Lineup and Odds
| 1 | Mubtaahij | Mike De Kock | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 14-1 |
| 2 | Tale of Verve | Dallas Stewart | Gary Stevens | 20-1 |
| 3 | Madefromlucky | Todd Pletcher | Javier Castellano | 16-1 |
| 4 | Frammento | Nick Zito | Mike Smith | 40-1 |
| 5 | American Pharoah | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza | 2-3 |
| 6 | Frosted | Kiaran McLaughlin | Joel Rosario | 6-1 |
| 7 | Keen Ice | Dale Romans | Kent Desormeaux | 25-1 |
| 8 | Materiality | Todd Pletcher | John Velazquez | 13-2 |
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
Payout Info
| 1st | $800,000 |
| 2nd | $280,000 |
| 3rd | $150,000 |
| 4th | $100,000 |
| 5th | $60,000 |
| 6th | $45,000 |
| 7th | $35,000 |
| 8th | $30,000 |
Information courtesy of NYRA.com.
Predictions
| Win | American Pharoah |
| Place | Materiality |
| Show | Frosted |
There are more reasons to be unsure about American Pharoah's chances of winning the Triple Crown than there are to bank on it, but much of that is rooted in history more than the horse himself.
As far as the horse goes, American Pharoah has shown nothing other than dominance over the other Grade 1 contenders. A deep pool of able horses seemed to make a Triple Crown impossible this year again, but American Pharoah has proved a class above all of them.
The obvious rigors of having to race a third time in five weeks—and the longer 1 ½-mile trek—has made the Triple Crown elusive over the last 37 years. Trainer Bob Baffert has represented three of the 13 horses who came up just short in that span, but he made it clear American Pharoah is unlike any he's ever had, per CBS News:
"The good ones, they'll just pop up. They breathe different air than the rest of 'em," Baffert said. "(Pharoah) is more explosive than my other horses. Every time he runs, he's showing me; he looks like maybe this is the one."
Unlike at Churchill Downs or Pimlico, he'll be able to start from the middle of the pack in a coveted position, as Yahoo Sports' Pat Forde reported:
The post draw can be overrated in an elongated race like the Belmont, and that's especially so when there are just eight horses in the field. But one horse bound to take advantage of his draw is Materiality.
He drew the outside post of No. 8 for Saturday, which gives jockey John Velazquez—winner of two Belmont Stakes—plenty of options to attack during the early goings. Trainer Todd Pletcher rested Materiality for the Preakness in order to keep him fresh, but he believes the advantage of racing in Materiality's home stable will make a difference, too, per New York Times' Tom Pedulla:
“The horses are settled in here; they train over the mile-and-a-half oval every day. Anytime you can walk out of your stall into the paddock, it’s not a disadvantage in any sense.”
Materiality will avoid the early hesitation that doomed him to a sixth-place finish at the Derby, instead pushing American Pharoah more than any other contender Saturday and finishing well behind him for second place.
Another Derby head-turner in Frosted will surge forward for a top-three finish, a contender who could have easily placed at Churchill Downs but finished fourth. He'll give American Pharoah some early trouble out of the No. 6 post but fade late to fall behind the two top horses.
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