Belmont Stakes Odds 2015: Race Lines, Post Positions and Picks for Elmont Lineup
Just days away from Saturday's 2015 Belmont Stakes, we're drawing closer toward finding out whether all the hype is once again ill-advised or if American Pharoah truly is worthy of horse racing's most elusive trophy.
He made it through the Kentucky Derby with a late push to victory and dominated the Preakness Stakes in a wire-to-wire performance, but the big one still looms at Belmont Park. On top of the 1 ½-mile marathon that pushes these horses to their limits, American Pharoah will have to make that trip alongside horses with more rest under their belts.
With that said, American Pharoah has shown plenty of signs that this may be the year that the 37-year Triple Crown drought finally ends. Wednesday's post position draw proved telling in factoring his chances, so let's check out how the lineup looks and what it means for Saturday's race.
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2015 Belmont Stakes Lineup and Odds
| 1 | Mubtaahij | Mike De Kock | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 14-1 |
| 2 | Tale of Verve | Dallas Stewart | Gary Stevens | 20-1 |
| 3 | Madefromlucky | Todd Pletcher | Javier Castellano | 16-1 |
| 4 | Frammento | Nick Zito | Mike Smith | 40-1 |
| 5 | American Pharoah | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza | 2-3 |
| 6 | Frosted | Kiaran McLaughlin | Joel Rosario | 6-1 |
| 7 | Keen Ice | Dale Romans | Kent Desormeaux | 25-1 |
| 8 | Materiality | Todd Pletcher | John Velazquez | 13-2 |
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark
Predictions
Win: American Pharoah
You'll hear all about how 13 horses have failed just one win away from the Triple Crown since 1978. But none of those horses were quite like American Pharoah.
Trainer Bob Baffert has sent three of those 13 horses to Belmont with a Triple Crown on the line, and they all fell short of the seismic task at hand. But even Baffert, with plenty of reasons to temper the expectations, couldn't deny American Pharoah's greatness, per CBS News:
"I don't think it takes a great trainer and a great jockey to win the Triple Crown. It takes a great horse. (Pharoah) is more explosive than my other horses. Every time he runs, he's showing me; he looks like maybe this is the one.
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That explosiveness showed at the Kentucky Derby, where he stuck around behind the pace-setters only to burst into the lead without much difficulty. His only adversity at the Preakness was pushing hard from the No. 1 gate, which resulted in a convincing win.
American Pharoah wasn't seriously tested in either of those races. The extra distance and the rigors of facing fresher competition aren't enough to make up for the massive disparity in speed between American Pharoah and the rest of the field.
The last true speed bump was the post draw, which yielded a No. 5 starting post for American Pharoah. Right smack dab in the middle of the pack, jockey Victor Espinoza will be able to get his horse comfortably into the race again.
Many horses have looked capable of accomplishing the Triple Crown feat but as Baffert said, this might be the one.
Place: Materiality
It's always a gamble in assuming a horse is ready for a 1 ½-mile race—something they've never tried before. But trainer Todd Pletcher obviously saw enough in Materiality at the Kentucky Derby to be confident of his chances at Belmont.
As one of the chief contenders to American Pharoah at Pimlico, Pletcher removed Materiality and his other three horses from the field to rest up for the Belmont. It remains to be seen if that worked, but it certainly could give his horse a leg up that he wouldn't normally have against a horse like American Pharoah.
A strong post draw of No. 8 will put Materiality on the outside, which Pletcher likes in comparison to the favorite, as he told KY Derby Contenders:
Starting from the outside will allow Materiality plenty of options as to how he wants to attack the race, and that will give him the chance to set the tone early on. Coming off a sixth-place finish at Churchill Downs, Materiality has the top-line speed that few others in the field have to threaten American Pharoah.
Show: Frosted
If there's a horse who has the chips stacked in his favor to pull off the upset and end American Pharoah's Triple Crown bid, it's Frosted.
He ran just as well as you'd prefer at the Kentucky Derby and would have easily finished in the top three had he not gotten bunched in out of the gates. Having caught up to the leaders in a flash, it led one to wonder what he can do with the extra quarter mile on the Belmont track.
The jockey on Frosted's back knows all too well what it takes to dethrone a great horse. Joel Rosario backed Tonalist for the Belmont Stakes and helped to end California Chrome's hopes of a Triple Crown.
But like in that instance last year, it's probably going to take a subpar performance from the favorite in order to set things up for the underdogs. American Pharoah doesn't look intent on giving anyone that opportunity, but Frosted has shown over the last several weeks that he'll be a force down the stretch when he turns it on.
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