Belmont Stakes 2015: Updated Predictions, Betting Lines and Post Time
When it comes to the 2015 Belmont Stakes, only the wait remains.
It's the shortest part of the trek to the opening gun with the major pre-race events now out of the way, but it sure feels like the longest.
Wednesday, each owner and stable learned their fate at the post position draw and can prep an ideal strategy, but for everyone else, the waiting game begins in earnest ahead of Saturday's post time.
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Of course, the best way to pass the time is to break down some of the race's more salient points and make predictions, so let's get right to it after a look at all of the critical information about the event.
2015 Belmont Stakes
Date: Saturday, June 6
Where: Belmont Park in Elmont, New York
TV Time: 2:30-4:30 p.m. ET (NBC Sports Network); 4:30-7 p.m. ET (NBC)
Post Time: 6:50 p.m. ET
Live Stream: NBC Sports Live Extra
2015 Belmont Stakes Post Positions
| 1 | Mubtaahij | Michael De Kock | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 14-1 |
| 2 | Tale of Verve | Dallas Stewart | Gary Stevens | 20-1 |
| 3 | Madefromlucky | Todd Pletcher | Javier Castellano | 16-1 |
| 4 | Frammento | Nick Zito | Mike Smith | 40-1 |
| 5 | American Pharoah | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza | 2-3 |
| 6 | Frosted | Kiaran McLaughlin | Joel Rosario | 6-1 |
| 7 | Keen Ice | Dale Romans | Kent Desormeaux | 25-1 |
| 8 | Materiality | Todd Pletcher | John Velazquez | 13-2 |
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark as of June 4.
Updating Predictions
The center of attention when it comes to predictions, of course, is American Pharoah.
Trainer Bob Baffert has a serious Triple Crown threat on his hands, perhaps even more realistic than Art Sherman's attempt to break the 37-year drought last year with California Chrome.
American Pharoah drew the fifth post Wednesday, not the most ideal position, but good enough. In a perfect world, one of the top three spots would be his. Belmont-Stakes.info says the first post touts the most wins, with the second and third posts featuring double-digit winners, too.
Also a double-digit winner? The fifth post American Pharoah will run out of, and even better, the horses inside of him—except one—don't tout the elite speed worthy of scaring the favorite.
The exception is Mubtaahij out of the dangerous No. 1 post. International horses perform better across longer distances, so it should scare all involved that the Michael de Kock-trained horse will make his second American start out of the race's winningest post.
Mubtaahij finished eighth at the Kentucky Derby before skipping the Preakness Stakes, and over a longer distance with a shorter track to travel than those lining up on the outside, he's a serious threat to duel American Pharoah to the bitter end.
Ditto for Frosted, who got lucky at the draw and will line up just outside of Baffert's top horse.
Speed is a must outside to combat what may be a longer trek than advertised to keep pace. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin's top horse offers plenty of it, and legendary jockey Joel Rosario is just the man to orchestrate the strategy to put them in it late—whether it means jumping ahead of American Pharoah and dictating the pace, or staying back and striking late.
There are other horses to pay close attention to—especially the ones guided by Todd Pletcher. Madefromlucky drew a nice third slot, but it's also easy to get lost in the pack from there and the colt has yet to show against major competition, with Saturday being his first foray into a Triple Crown race.
Before the draw, Pletcher's Materiality was perhaps the biggest threat to American Pharoah, but landing farthest outside puts a damper on his hopes. To make matters worse, Pletcher's horse finished sixth at Churchill Downs, and as Craig Milkowski of TimeformUS.com points out, a prior win at the Grade 1 Florida Derby doesn't bode well from a historical standpoint:
In the end, no colt in the field has the speed to clash with American Pharoah down the stretch.
It helps Baffert sounds confident in his horse's form.
"His body language is really good," Baffert said, per USA Today's Dan Wolken. "He's shown me in his works he's really doing well and he's happy. His stride is ridiculously efficient and I think that's what you need for the Belmont. I think it should be set up really great for him."
Jockey Victor Espinoza, in what is his third chance at a Triple Crown, can play the race however he wants after showing a little bit of everything over the first two legs. Thanks to an outstanding draw and great pedigree, Mubtaahij will put on a strong rush late to make it close, with Frosted a few paces back after using the closing speed to break free from the rest of the pack.
Top Three Predictions: American Pharoah, Mubtaahij, Frosted
Stats and information via BelmontStakes.com unless otherwise specified.
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