Belmont Stakes 2015 Post Positions: Picks, Predictions for All Horses in Lineup
Wednesday's post position draw gave us a better idea of the hurdles each contender must face to emerge victorious in the 2015 Belmont Stakes. After all, in this lengthy 1 ½-mile race, starting in a favorable location could be the difference between eternal glory and utter disappointment.
No horse has more at stake than American Pharoah. The winner of the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes enters the Belmont Stakes aiming to become the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years. Since Affirmed last won the coveted achievement in 1978, 13 other horses have traveled to Belmont Park with the same aspirations—each left empty-handed.
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Pharoah drew the No. 5 gate for this year's Belmont Stakes. The starting position has seen plenty of past success and has yielded a total of 13 winners, including 1977 Triple Crown champion Seattle Slew. Could the colt's favorable draw lead to a place in the history books?
As we anxiously await the commencement of the 2015 Belmont Stakes, let's take a stab at predicting the race's ultimate outcome.
Belmont Stakes Predictions
| 1 | 5 | American Pharoah | 2-3 |
| 2 | 6 | Frosted | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Madefromlucky | 16-1 |
| 4 | 8 | Materiality | 13-2 |
| 5 | 2 | Tale of Verve | 20-1 |
| 6 | 1 | Mubtaahij | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Keen Ice | 25-1 |
| 8 | 4 | Frammento | 40-1 |
Predictions and Analysis
It sure seems as though fortune is favoring American Pharoah in the Belmont Stakes. After two terrible post draws to begin his run toward the Triple Crown, the colt finally landed a starting gate that will give him and jockey Victor Espinoza plenty of options early in the race.
Espinoza shared his delight after the draw during an interview with Dan Wolken of USA Today: "I'm very happy with the draw. I'm feeling lucky this year. Third time's the charm."
Pharoah's trainer Bob Baffert also appeared confident during an interview with the Associated Press (via ESPN.com): "I've always liked the five. It's a number I always do well with. More important is the horse is doing well."
Adding to the allure surrounding Pharoah in the Belmont Stakes is this simple fact: No Triple Crown winner has ever defeated more than seven contenders at Belmont Park. Well, it just so happens that this year's field is comprised of eight horses.
After watching Pharoah's great acceleration, impressive stamina and blazing closing speed during the first two legs of the Triple Crown, there simply isn't a reason to pick against the favorite at this point. Prepare to see the 37-year drought come to an end June 6.
Frosted is a very likely contender to earn a runner-up finish. The colt may be the most impressive closer in the field. That trait was well on display in the Kentucky Derby, as his horrid start saw him move to the rear of the pack early, only to rally over the last half-mile and finish fourth.
Although, while Frosted's closing ability will keep him in contention, his inconsistency out of the gate will be detrimental to his chances of overtaking Pharoah for the win.
In third place will be Madefromlucky. This will be his first Triple Crown race this year, as the colt wasn't entered in the Kentucky Derby, won the Peter Pan Stakes and skipped the Preakness Stakes. Interestingly enough, that was the same route taken by 2014 Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist.
While Madefromlucky is a talented horse, he won't produce the same jaw-dropping result as Tonalist did a year ago against California Chrome. Madefromlucky has already faced Pharoah twice, losing by a fair margin on both occasions. There's no reason to think this race will provide a different outcome.
Completing the superfecta is Materiality. This Todd Pletcher-trained colt had a disappointing Kentucky Derby, finishing sixth, and he was later held out of the Preakness.
The trainer does appear confident in his horse's chances at Belmont Park, according to his interview with Wolken: "With Materiality, if you look at his first three races he can be close to the pace. He missed the break at Churchill and found himself in a position he's never been in. I like being outside of American Pharoah. We're going to go into the first turn trying to make sure there's an honest pace."
Although, Materiality's pace is a cause for concern here. Even before the Kentucky Derby, the colt didn't prove to be the fastest contender, winning the Florida Derby with a lackluster time of 1:52.30. That kind of pace won't allow him to keep up with the likes of Pharoah.
All Belmont Stakes odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
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