Belmont Stakes Picks 2015: Predictions and Odds for All Horses in the Lineup
The 2015 Belmont Stakes post positions are set as of Wednesday afternoon, and now we can really begin to delve into some race predictions.
All eyes are fixed upon American Pharoah, as the colt aims to become the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years. He didn't receive favorable starting positions in either the Kentucky Derby or Preakness Stakes but managed to pull through regardless. The horse's luck shifted prior to the Belmont Stakes, as he drew a solid starting position in the No. 5 gate—a location that has yielded 13 winners, including the famed Seattle Slew.
Although, Pharoah faces the task of overcoming fatigue at Belmont Park. This will be his third race in a matter of five weeks, and he'll have to defeat some fresh-legged contenders to claim horse racing's ultimate prize. In fact, only Tale of Verve ran in the Preakness Stakes with Pharoah—the other six contenders haven't seen action since either the Kentucky Derby or Peter Pan Stakes in early May.
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With that in mind, let's take a look at the field's post positions, updated odds and predict the ultimate finishing order for the 2015 Belmont Stakes.
Belmont Stakes Post Positions, Odds and Predictions
| 1 | 5 | American Pharoah | 2-3 |
| 2 | 6 | Frosted | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Madefromlucky | 16-1 |
| 4 | 8 | Materiality | 13-2 |
| 5 | 2 | Tale of Verve | 20-1 |
| 6 | 1 | Mubtaahij | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Keen Ice | 25-1 |
| 8 | 4 | Frammento | 40-1 |
All Belmont Stakes odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
Predictions Analysis
American Pharoah will go on to win the Belmont Stakes and become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978—and no, that's not just wishful thinking.
Looking back at the colt's body of work, it's easy to see that his stamina is second to none, as he was put in unfavorable positions in each of the first two legs of the Triple Crown yet still emerged victorious in both. Now, he gets a start from a location that actually improves his chances of winning.
Trainer Bob Baffert briefly shared his thoughts on the post draw during an interview with the Associated Press, via ESPN.com: "I've always liked the five. It's a number I always do well with. More important is the horse is doing well."
Not only is Pharoah in an ideal starting position and continues to produce solid workouts, but there's a bit of history on his side as well. No Triple Crown winner has defeated more than seven horses in the Belmont Stakes. It just so happens that we have eight contenders this year.
Frosted, the race's second favorite, gets the nod for a runner-up finish. It's actually quite simple with Frosted—a good start to the race will put him into a position to challenge Pharoah down the final stretch.
This colt has tremendous closing ability, and that was well on display during the Kentucky Derby. He got off to a horrid start, running near the back of the pack early in the race. However, with roughly one-half mile to go, he picked up the pace and soared to a fourth-place finish. A clean start out of the No. 6 gate in the Belmont Stakes will ensure he's near the front in the end.
Taking third place is Madefromlucky. He's faced—and lost to—Pharoah twice already this year, placing second in the Rebel Stakes and fourth in the Arkansas Derby. However, the colt has finally found his form of late, emerging victorious after a nice late run in the Peter Pan Stakes.
The Belmont will be Madefromlucky's first Triple Crown race this year, and that puts him in exactly the same situation as last year's Belmont Stakes winner, Tonalist—he won the Peter Pan and went on to upset California Chrome in the Belmont Stakes.
Rounding out the top four is Materiality. While this horse may see plenty of betting action, there's reason to be wary of him in the Belmont Stakes. He did produce a win earlier this year in the Florida Derby, but his time of 1:52.30 was hardly impressive. Also, he proved to be incapable of competing after failing to break cleanly from the gate, finishing sixth in the Kentucky Derby.
Sure, Materiality skipped the Preakness and is well-rested entering the Belmont Stakes. However, the same can be said for five other contenders that don't have to start from a No. 8 gate that has only produced five winners in the history of the race.
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