Belmont Stakes 2015 Post Positions: Field Predictions, Latest Odds, Jockey Info

It's been 37 years since Affirmed became the last horse to complete the elusive Triple Crown. Since then, over almost four decades, many have come close to racing immortality, but all have failed.

American Pharoah could change all that on Saturday at the 2015 Belmont Stakes. The Bob Baffert-trained colt already has the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes to his name, but historically, the 12-furlong Belmont is the most difficult race to win, especially for Triple Crown hopefuls.

Pharoah is up against a strong field including the likes of Materiality, Frosted and Mubtaahij. Read on for post positions, odds, jockey details and predictions for Saturday's race. 

Post No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	Mubtaahij	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	Mike de Kock	14-1
2	Tale of Verve	Gary Stevens	Dallas Stewart	20-1
3	Madefromlucky	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	16-1
4	Frammento	Mike Smith	Nick Zito	40-1
5	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	2-3
6	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	6-1
7	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	25-1
8	Materiality	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	13-2

American Pharoah to Fail in Triple Crown Bid

American Pharoah is being heavily backed to win at Belmont Park on Saturday. While he is strongly fancied by many who want to see history be made, he is also a deserving favourite.

He has come up against many of his contenders in New York in previous races and blown them all away. 

Tale of the Verve was second to Pharoah in the Preakness but was way off the pace, as can be seen below:

Meanwhile, Frosted was four lengths back from Pharoah in the Derby, with the likes of Mubtaahij and Materiality further behind.

Jockey Victor Espinoza has been here before. He has twice headed to the Belmont as the Derby and Preakness winner, looking to take the Triple Crown—last year with California Chrome, and in 2002 with War Emblem.

Similarly, Baffert has three times headed to the Belmont with a Triple Crown hopeful, and he has failed on each occasion.

Unfortunately, despite the immense ability, pace and power of American Pharoah, the same fate will befall Baffert and Espinoza again in 2015.

Primarily, the longer Belmont distance will be too much for Pharoah to handle, as has been the way over recent times, per Benjamin Morris of FiveThirtyEight:

Similarly, Pharoah is attempting the extraordinary feat of winning three competitive races within five weeks. That is a mighty difficult task, especially as he will be facing mainly fresher horses who skipped the Preakness three weeks ago.

Finally, history is against him. There have been 12 other Triple Crown hopefuls since 1978, and all have failed, as noted by FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver:

And in the Belmont, favourites just don't seem to win—it has happened only twice since 1995, per Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports.

An American Pharoah victory on Saturday would be a piece of history, but it is not going to happen.

Frosted to Win the Belmont Stakes

A quick look at the tape from the Kentucky Derby back in early May shows there was one horse finishing better than almost any other.

That horse was Frosted, who stormed through at the end of the race at Churchill Downs, almost pipping Dortmund for third:

The Kiaran McLaughlin-trained horse has stamina to spare, a necessity in winning the mile-and-a-half Test of the Champion.

He will be fresh having sat out the Preakness and has a jockey on board who has been in this situation before.

Joel Rosario won the Belmont in 2014 with Tonalist, a race which Espinoza's California Chrome was supposed to win to seal the Triple Crown.

Frosted is the second favourite ahead of the 147th running of the Belmont Stakes. He is American Pharoah's biggest challenger, and over the extra distance, he will be able to improve on his Derby showing and upset the apple cart with a victory in New York.