Belmont Stakes Picks 2015: Examining Latest Vegas Predictions and Odds
It's been nearly four decades since horse racing last saw a Triple Crown winner. Since Affirmed won the crown in 1978, numerous horses have won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes only to come up short at the Belmont Stakes.
Winning the Triple Crown has never been easy. Only 11 horses have ever achieved this famed distinction.
But the 37-year drought we are in now is historical. The longest previous stretch without a Triple Crown winner was 25 years, between Citation in 1948 and Secretariat in 1973.
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It's definitely among the toughest achievements in sports. To pull it off, a young horse must win three ultra-competitive races in just five weeks. Each race is longer than the last one, and by the time the hopeful reaches the 1 ½-mile Belmont, it faces other top athletes who are entering the race well-rested.
Still, this feels like a year when destiny might just be ready to smile. No recent horse has had a better chance than American Pharoah. Las Vegas has the Derby and Preakness winner tabbed as the favorite for a reason.
Odds Shark has American Pharoah listed as a 5-7 favorite after he drew a No. 5 post position on Wednesday. It's the best draw yet for the horse during this historic run.
In the Kentucky Derby, American Pharoah had to rally from the No. 18 position to win a dogfight down the stretch. On the longer track at the Preakness, he started in the tricky No. 1 spot and pulled away from the field to win by a dominating seven lengths on a muddy and rain-soaked track.
In the Belmont, he'll be in an ideal position, sandwiched between slow-starting Frosted and long-shot Frammento. This should allow jockey Victor Espinoza to run a smart tactical race.
Frosted has to be viewed as a threat, though. At odds of 6-1, Odds Shark has him established as the No. 2 in this field. The horse turned in an impressive finishing drive at Churchill Downs to place fourth in the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Kiarin McLaughlin held him out of the Preakness.
American Pharoah's other biggest threat, Materiality, is also well-rested after sitting out the Preakness. Odds Shark lists the horse at 13-2.
For long-shot chasers, the rest of the field has some interesting horses. Mubtaahij is a UAE Derby champion but finished a disappointing eighth at the Kentucky Derby.
He's another horse competing against American Pharoah with the advantage of having sat out the Preakness. Odds Shark has him at odds of 14-1.
Like Materiality, Madefromlucky is trained by Belmont powerhouse Todd Pletcher. The horse is comfortable on Belmont's 1 ½-mile oval, as he demonstrated by winning the Peter Pan Stakes. Bettors can get him for 14-1 odds.
Preakness runner-up Tale of Verve enters the field at Belmont at odds of 20-1. Speaking to Blood-Horse earlier this week, trainer Dallas Stewart sounded confident: "I think he's a horse that's really bred for the distance...he's got the stamina. He's got the pedigree."
Although he's running at odds of 25-1, Keen Ice could prove to be a dark horse in this field. Hall of Famer Kent Desormeaux is riding him, and at the Belmont's longer distance, an elite jockey can play a big role in determining finishing positions.
Keen Ice closed strong to finish No. 7 at Churchill Downs in May. Desormeaux told Blood-Horse that he expects the longer distance to play in his horse's favor at Belmont: "They're not going to go :46 (for the half-mile) in the Belmont...they'll slow it down and if Keen Ice finishes like he finished in the Derby, he has a chance, he'll be competitive."
Prediction
When following sports, it's always exciting to see something that is unique or historical. I was in grade school the last time a horse carried the field in all three Triple Crown races. So when a horse wins the Derby and Preakness, I tend to get swept up into the enthusiasm of a potential history-making event.
But American Pharoah is a horse with the substance to sustain his hype. Expect him to hold off a strong late rally by Frosted to bring home the third leg of the Triple Crown.
Expect a real battle for the show position at No. 3. Stablemates Materiality and Madefromlucky will battle hard in the middle of a tight pack. But I'm going with long shot Keen Ice to finish third.
So my own trifecta features the favorites, American Pharoah and Frosted, running first and second, with Keen Ice coming from near the bottom of the field to take a strong third.
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