Belmont Stakes Entries 2015: Race-Day Predictions for All Horses and Jockeys
There is always a great deal of excitement surrounding the final leg of horse racing's Triple Crown, but the feeling is palpable entering Saturday's event due to American Pharoah's pursuit of the most elusive accomplishment in the sport.
No horse has managed to win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes consecutively since Affirmed in 1978; however, American Pharoah is heavily favored to do precisely that. Trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Victor Espinoza are just one win away from making history, but closing it out won't be easy.
Several fresh horses will give American Pharoah a run for his money, and the longer distance of the race when compared to the Derby and the Preakness could prove difficult to manage.
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With the moment of truth quickly approaching, here is a full rundown of the Belmont Stakes field as well as predictions for how each horse will fare.
Belmont Stakes Lineup
| 1 | Mubtaahij | Irad Ortiz, Jr. | Mike de Kock | 14-1 |
| 2 | Tale of Verve | Gary Stevens | Dallas Stewart | 20-1 |
| 3 | Madefromlucky | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 14-1 |
| 4 | Frammento | Mike Smith | Nick Zito | 33-1 |
| 5 | American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | 10-13 |
| 6 | Frosted | Joel Rosario | Kiaran McLaughlin | 11-2 |
| 7 | Keen Ice | Kent Desormeaux | Dale Romans | 25-1 |
| 8 | Materiality | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 13-2 |
Belmont Stakes Predicted Finishing Order
| 1 | 8 | Materiality | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 6-1 |
| 2 | 5 | American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | 3-5 |
| 3 | 1 | Mubtaahij | Irad Ortiz, Jr. | Mike de Kock | 10-1 |
| 4 | 6 | Frosted | Joel Rosario | Kiaran McLaughlin | 5-1 |
| 5 | 3 | Madefromlucky | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 12-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Keen Ice | Kent Desormeaux | Dale Romans | 20-1 |
| 7 | 2 | Tale of Verve | Gary Stevens | Dallas Stewart | 15-1 |
| 8 | 4 | Frammento | Mike Smith | Nick Zito | 30-1 |
Predicting Winning Trifecta
Win: Materiality
Although few would argue against the notion that American Pharoah is the best and most talented horse in the Belmont field, there are other factors that will come into play. Chief among them is stamina, which could be an issue for AP since he has run so many races in a short amount of time. Because of that, Materiality is among the horses with a legitimate chance to surprise him.
The Todd Pletcher-trained colt entered the Kentucky Derby with an undefeated record, but he turned in a somewhat disappointing sixth-place result. While that wasn't a great finish for him, it was actually far better than it looked like it was going to be.
As seen in this photo courtesy of Churchill Downs announcer Travis Stone, Materiality was at the back of the field before making a huge comeback in the home stretch:
"This pic of Derby broadcast shows how far back Materiality was turning for home in a race that did not collapse... pic.twitter.com/4YDQuWn9xU
— Travis Stone (@TravisStone) June 3, 2015"
That closing speed is something that could come into play in the Belmont Stakes since it is a lengthy race. Also, if a tired and overworked American Pharoah is in the lead in the latter stages of the race, Materiality may be able to reel him in.
He has the benefit of the outermost post position at No. 8, which means jockey John Velazquez will be able to pick and choose his spots.
According to KY Derby Contenders on Twitter, Pletcher feels as though the draw should give Materiality a bit of an advantage over American Pharoah in the No. 5 hole:
Materiality previously won the Florida Derby, but he is quite inexperienced when compared to many of the other horses in this field. Some might view that as a negative, but it means that he hasn't had to deal with much wear and tear.
He may not be a veteran horse by any means, but Pletcher believes Materiality has done plenty in limited opportunities:
The Belmont Stakes represents his best opportunity yet due to the fact that horses who don't run in the Preakness Stakes have traditionally fared very well against horses going for the Triple Crown.
That is the dynamic between Materiality and American Pharoah, and it will favor the well-rested horse once again.
Place: American Pharoah
All eyes will be on American Pharoah as he goes for the Triple Crown Saturday at Belmont Park, and while he personally won't feel the pressure to perform, there is no question that observers are heaping some lofty expectations onto the fantastic colt.
While there is no doubting the fact that American Pharoah is an excellent horse, the Belmont has traditionally been the toughest race to predict among the Triple Crown events. According to ESPN Stats & Info, favorites have faltered over the past eight years:
That includes a handful of horses who won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, just as American Pharoah has. Perhaps American Pharoah is a better horse than those who have tried and failed, but there is much more to the equation than skill.
The Triple Crown grind is extremely difficult on the horses, which is why very few opt to run in all three races. Aside from American Pharoah, Tale of Verve is the only horse in Saturday's field who competed at the Belmont three weeks ago, which means they all have a competitive advantage.
Even with that in mind, Baffert believes American Pharoah will come out on top if he is truly as good as outsiders have made him out to be, per the Lexington Herald-Leader:
Baffert has forgotten more about horse racing than most will ever know, but his view seems oversimplified considering everything that is working against American Pharoah.
While American Pharoah figures to be in the mix as the Belmont Stakes reaches its conclusion, tiredness is bound to catch up with him, which will allow Materiality to spoil the accomplishment that horse racing enthusiasts have been anticipating for 37 years.
Show: Mubtaahij
This year's Kentucky Derby field was heralded as one of the best in recent memory, and the presence of Mubtaahij was a big reason for that. Although the Irish-bred horse struggled to an eighth-place finish, he is still a colt worth watching in Elmont, New York.
Mubtaahij had won four of five races entering the Kentucky Derby, and now that he has enjoyed a considerable amount of time off, he should be refreshed and ready to turn in a strong performance in the Belmont Stakes.
Trainer Mike de Kock feels good about his horse's chances due largely to the fact that he hasn't had to go through a ton of upheaval and travel when compared to the lead-up to the Derby, according to TwinSpires.com:
Getting into a routine could be a huge difference-maker for Mubtaahij, but that may not be the biggest thing working in his favor. The No. 1 post isn't ideal for most, but it may represent his best chance to win the Belmont Stakes.
Since Mubtaahij will start against the rail, jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. may have no choice other than to charge to the lead. Staying near the front for the entire race will be no easy task, but it will put pressure on American Pharoah and the rest of the field.
The odds are in favor of Mubtaahij being run down late in the race, but he should have enough left to salvage a third-place finish, which would be significant after flopping at Churchill Downs.
Follow @MikeChiari on Twitter.
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