Belmont Stakes Odds 2015: Top Picks, Updated Vegas Lines for 147th Race
While one horse is the clear favorite at the 2015 Belmont Stakes, we have seen plenty of times that anything can happen at the final leg of the Triple Crown.
American Pharoah has the chance to make history Saturday after winning both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, although no horse has won all three events since 1978. Many have come close, but the track in Elmont, New York, always seems to be too great of a challenge to overcome.
The question this time around is whether anyone in the small field will be able to pull off the upset.
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| 1 | Mubtaahij | Michael De Kock | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 10-1 |
| 2 | Tale of Verve | Dallas Stewart | Gary Stevens | 15-1 |
| 3 | Madefromlucky | Todd Pletcher | Javier Castellano | 12-1 |
| 4 | Frammento | Nick Zito | Mike Smith | 30-1 |
| 5 | American Pharoah | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza | 3-5 |
| 6 | Frosted | Kiaran McLaughlin | Joel Rosario | 5-1 |
| 7 | Keen Ice | Dale Romans | Kent Desormeaux | 20-1 |
| 8 | Materiality | Todd Pletcher | John Velazquez | 6-1 |
Top Picks
Materiality
Despite a disappointing sixth-place finish at the Kentucky Derby, Materiality remains one of the top contenders to challenge American Pharoah at Belmont.
Trainer Todd Pletcher, who will also run Madefromlucky at Belmont, believes the difference this time around will be his placement among the pack, via Dan Wolken of USA Today:
"I envision Materiality being close to the pace and Madefromlucky mid-pack. With Materiality, if you look at his first three races he can be close to the pace. He missed the break at Churchill and found himself in a position he's never been in. I like being outside of American Pharoah. We're going to go into the first turn trying to make sure there's an honest pace.
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Materiality couldn't get into control in the loaded field at Churchill Downs but has more freedom in a small race like Belmont. With the outside post, jockey John Velazquez will have the ability to go wherever he wants on the course.
After winning the Florida Derby, it's clear Materiality has the talent to contend at this event. As long as he doesn't overextend himself early, he should be one of the top finishers Saturday.
Frosted
Few horses in this race have as much experience as Frosted, who has already competed in five Grade 1 or Grade 2 events. While there have been varied results, the colt has clearly been at his best with Joel Rosario on board.
The jockey, who will ride Frosted at Belmont, earned a win at the Wood Memorial and finished in a respectable fourth place at the Kentucky Derby in his only two competitions with the horse. He will now try to earn some more big money as the highest remaining finisher at Churchill Downs besides American Pharoah.
As the second favorite in New York, Frosted certainly has as good of a chance as any to win the title.
That said, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is a bit intimidated by the competition:
With a starting spot right next to American Pharoah, Frosted will have to get out to a good start and remain in the hunt for the entire 1 ½-mile course. It won't be easy, but he certainly has a chance to surprise a lot of people.
American Pharoah
We know things have been difficult for those attempting to win a Triple Crown lately. California Chrome finished in fourth place last year, I'll Have Another was forced to scratch in 2012 and Big Brown did not finish in 2008.
The last time a Triple Crown contender even finished in the money was Smarty Jones in 2004.
Beyond that, this course hasn't even been good to the favorites regardless of what they did in previous races, via ESPN Stats and Info:
American Pharoah has been great over the past few races. After completely dominating the Arkansas Derby, the horse overcame a tough start and needed to run a long way to survive the Kentucky Derby. He then looked the part of a champion in rainy conditions at the Preakness.
Despite all of this success, the fatigue from multiple races in a short period of time is certain to catch up with him. Meanwhile, the extended distance compared to the last few events always causes issues.
Jockey Victor Espinoza has gone into Belmont with the Triple Crown on the line twice in his career. He will hope this time is different, but winning the third race will remain a challenge.
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