Belmont Stakes Field 2015: Post Positions and Updated Odds for All Horses
On Wednesday, American Pharoah came away the big winner at the post position draw for the Belmont Stakes.
While the deep field offers some intriguing contenders at various spots, the focus remains on Bob Baffert's American Pharoah, who hopes to have enough gas left in the tank to tackle the Triple Crown's longest leg and seize a crown 37 years in the making.
With the field set, it's time to take an early look at updated odds for each confirmed horse. Remember, horses closer to the rail tend to do better, as per Belmont-Stakes.info; the No. 1 post touts the most wins at 23, with the second and third posts also featuring double-digit winners.
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Here's a look at the order and initial odds.
2015 Belmont Stakes Post Positions
| 1 | Mubtaahij | 10-1 |
| 2 | Tale of Verve | 15-1 |
| 3 | Madefromlucky | 12-1 |
| 4 | Frammento | 30-1 |
| 5 | American Pharoah | 3-5 |
| 6 | Frosted | 5-1 |
| 7 | Keen Ice | 20-1 |
| 8 | Materiality | 6-1 |
Odds via the Courier-Journal as of June 3 at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Analysis for Top Horses
Materiality
Todd Pletcher skipped the Preakness Stakes as a whole in the hopes he could reel in a win at the Belmont, where he tends to be one of the sport's best performers in recent years.
This time, his hopes seem to hinge on the hooves of Materiality, who finished sixth at the Kentucky Derby, a strong mark considering the vast number of competitors in what was one of the deepest classes in a decade or more.
Perhaps most interesting is the fact Pletcher had to practice serious restraint when it came to Pimlico thanks to Materiality. He told Tom Pedulla of the New York Times he almost ran the colt due to his energy levels.
"At the end of the day, I felt like if I was wrong and he didn't win the Preakness, it would compromise our chances in the Belmont," he said.
Now Materiality can run wild out of the eighth slot. Being on the outside in most years isn't great, but in such a small field, Pletcher's top horse might not need to make up a ton of ground as opposed to lining up on the outside of a larger draw.
One of the big advantages of skipping the event in Baltimore is entering New York on fresh legs, something American Pharoah can't do. Materiality's one to watch and trust as the wait for the gates to open continues.
Frosted
Kiaran McLaughlin also decided to take the Pletcher approach and hold out serious contender Frosted, who will enter New York well rested after a fourth-place finish at Churchill Downs.
Even the finish behind the big three—American Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund—is quite deceptive when one watches the replay and realizes Frosted stormed from 14th to fourth near the end of the race.
It's some staggering closing ability perhaps ripe to take down a Triple Crown contender winded from running his third—and longest—race in a month and change.
For McLaughlin, it's all about playing the spoiler, as Jerry Bossert of the New York Daily News captures:
"I hope they are booing. That's the way we have to look at it. We hope to get a boo out of them. You know I'm a racing fan too, and if we lose, I hope he wins for the Triple Crown, but once they go in the starting gate it's all about your team and your own horse. We're trying to win the race.
"
Running out of the sixth post, Frosted's patented closing speed should be alive and well after plenty of rest between races.
If Frosted can keep the pace until the final throes of the race, watch out.
American Pharoah
There wasn't a post position able to knock American Pharoah from favorite status.
Running fifth won't do it. It's maybe not as far inside as some would prefer, but in a small field, it's close enough for jockey Victor Espinoza to either set the pace or play off it. The fifth slot is one of a few others touting double-digit winners, too.
It's all well and good to say Baffert's crown jewel should tire down the stretch given the workload of the Triple Crown. It ignores, though, the idea American Pharoah just ran his best race to date at Pimlico on a quick turnaround, putting on a start-to-finish victory while refusing to get pinned on the rail in the No. 1 post—after thumping a historic Kentucky Derby field with ease.
In the end, running fifth doesn't matter much. American Pharoah didn't win the lottery at Churchill Downs and still bested the field, then he risked getting trapped on the rail in a short sprint at Pimlico.
This time, the post position is more favorable than the prior two. Regardless of the draw, though, American Pharoah remains the best until proved otherwise, and those who want to see a Triple Crown will want to tune in Saturday.
Stats and information via Preakness.com unless otherwise specified.
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