Belmont Stakes Field 2015: Examining Favorites, Sleeper Contenders, Top Jockeys

The 10-horse field in the Belmont Stakes was reduced by 20 percent Monday as Carpe Diem and The Truth or Else pulled out of the race, seemingly making it that much easier for odds-on favorite American Pharoah to become the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years.

American Pharoah, 4-5 according to Odds Shark, is likely to face seven other runners on Saturday, although there could still be a surprise or two before the post draw on Wednesday.

The Truth or Else was an outsider at odds of 50-1, and trainer Ken McPeek scratched the horse when he noticed filling in his ankle. Carpe Diem is trained by Todd Pletcher, and he will still have two horses running in the Belmont Stakes.

Madefromlucky, 12-1, figures to be a sleeper in this race, while Materiality, 13-2, is a legitimate challenger to American Pharoah.

Carpe Diem was listed at 12-1 when Pletcher scratched him, and he had picked up support from horse players last week.

While American Pharoah appears to be the best horse in the race, Pletcher's horses could run big races and cause problems for the Triple Crown hopeful. Pletcher has a history of success in the Belmont Stakes, and both Materiality and Madefromlucky are rested horses who did not compete in the Preakness in Baltimore on May 16.

Horse	Odds
American Pharoah	4-5
Frosted	5-1
Materiality	13-2
Madefromlucky	12-1
Mubtaahij	16-1
Tale of Verve	20-1
Keen Ice	25-1
Frammento	33-1

American Pharoah has proven to be a versatile horse who likes to work close to the lead. He was third at the quarter-mile mark in the Kentucky Derby, and he stayed with the leaders until the stretch run, when he turned it up a notch and pulled away for the victory.

He was even more impressive in the Preakness. When the skies opened in dramatic fashion and the race was run in a rain storm, American Pharoah had no problems with the weather or the track. He won the race by seven lengths and appears to be in top form with the race just days away. 

He put in his final work prior to the race by breezing five furlongs in 1:00 1/5 at Churchill Downs. Trainer Bob Baffert was pleased with the performance, according to Michael Dempsey of Turf 'n' Sport.

“Everything went really well this morning,” Baffert said. “The track was in perfect shape. It went just as we thought it would. He just kept clicking right along. Now we just play the waiting game.”

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press/Associated Press

In addition to Materiality and Madefromlucky, Frosted, 5-1, will likely be the second choice in the Belmont Stakes field. Frosted got off to a terrible start in the Kentucky Derby and fell to 15th place, but he rallied and climbed all the way to fourth place at the finish.

There are questions about Frosted's ability to handle the distance in the 1 ½-mile race, but if he gets off to a better start and doesn't have to use as much energy catching up, he may be able to push American Pharoah hard in this race.

Mubtaahij won the UAE Derby, and he had some support in the Kentucky Derby, but he ran an uninspired race and finished 10th. If Mubtaahij stays close to the early pace in this race, he may be much more interested in running the full distance and possibly challenging American Pharoah and the others.

That's probably a long shot, as trainer Mike de Kock announced Monday that Mubtaahij's regular jockey, Christophe Soumillon, had given up his mount because of a previous commitment and the horse would be ridden by Irad Ortiz. When a regular jockey gives up a mount in a Triple Crown race, it usually means that the horse's competition is simply deemed too tough.

Victor Espinoza will ride American Pharoah once again, and he is one of the sport's most accomplished jockeys. He has had two previous attempts at the Triple Crown, but he fell short in the Belmont Stakes with War Emblem in 2002 and California Chrome last year. Espinoza is hoping that he won't fall short in his third attempt at horse racing's most valued prize.

Frosted jockey Joel Rosario deserves credit for his horse's rally in the Kentucky Derby, and he is certainly capable of getting a top performance in the Belmont. Frosted had been 4-for-4 this year prior to the Kentucky Derby, and Baffert must prepare his horse for an outstanding effort from this rival.

Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin expects Rosario to be more aggressive with Frosted than he was at Churchill Downs. "I think we'll be a lot closer [to the pace] than in the Derby," McLaughlin told Newsday's Ed McNamara. "And hopefully not so wide, and we work out a better trip."

The same holds for Materiality and Hall of Fame jockey John R. Velazquez. He won back-to-back Eclipse Awards in 2004 and 2005, and he has won the Belmont Stakes twice and the Kentucky Derby once.