Belmont Stakes 2015: Horses, Favorites and Picks for This Year's Field
American Pharoah goes for history on Saturday, looking to add the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes to his already impressive resume and become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed accomplished the feat in 1978.
We have seen 13 horses since Affirmed show up in New York with their Triple Crown hopes still alive, and they all came up short, including California Chrome last year.
Trainer Bob Baffert gets his fourth chance to make history, coming up short with Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998) and War Emblem (2002) in just a six-year span.
All eyes will be on American Pharoah, who is the huge betting favorite, currently at 4-5 in the latest wagering odds at Odds Shark.
Let’s look at the horses, long shots, favorites and early picks for this year’s race:
How the Field Is Shaping Up
1 of 9
With Monday’s defections of Carpe Diem and The Truth Or Else, the prospective field for the Belmont Stakes stands at eight unless we see a few last-minute surprises at entry time.
Five of the eight probable Belmont starters ran in the Kentucky Derby and skipped the Preakness Stakes, including the Frosted (fourth) and Materiality (sixth) who are the second and third choices, respectively.
Only the top two finishers of the Preakness, American Pharoah and Tale of Verve, return for the third jewel of the Triple Crown.
Madefromlucky makes his first start in a Triple Crown race. The colt won the Peter Pan Stakes over the Belmont Park main track on May 9 in his last outing. Last year’s Peter Pan winner, Tonalist, came back to win the Belmont Stakes.
The Long Shots
2 of 9
Frammento (33-1): A winner of just one of his eight career starts, the colt was outrun and raced wide much of the trip in the Kentucky Derby in an 11th-place finish. His best effort in a stakes race came with a third in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park back in February.
The good news is his price is large, and he will be saddled by Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito, who pulled off the upset in the 2004 Belmont Stakes with Birdstone, ending the Triple Crown bid of Smarty Jones, and again in 2008 with Da'Tara snuffing out Big Brown’s chance at history.
Keen Ice (25-1): This colt also has won just once in eight starts and was not much of a threat in the Run for the Roses in a seventh-place finish, beaten 8 3/4 lengths by American Pharoah. His closest finish in a stakes race was his third in the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds.
His trainer Dale Romans is zero-of-five with Belmont starters, with three third-place finishes, the most recent being Medal Count last year.
The Hopefuls
3 of 9Madefromlucky (12-1): One of two starters that will be sent out by trainer Todd Pletcher, the colt is looking to follow in the footsteps of last year’s Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist, who won the Peter Pan Stakes in his prep. By comparison, Tonalist is the faster of the two based on the Beyer Speed Figures earned in the Peter Pan. Tonailst earned a 103 while Madefromlucky’s figure was a 94.
The colt was beaten by American Pharoah by a combined 15 1/4 lengths in the Rebel Stakes, where he ran second, and the Arkansas Derby, where he checked in fourth.
“Madefromlucky has a win over the (Belmont) track in the Peter Pan, which has been a good Belmont prep in years past, so that's encouraging,” Pletcher said via Ron Mitchell of Blood Horse. “We think he'll handle the mile and a half."
Tale of Verve (20-1): This colt looked completely overmatched in the Preakness Stakes coming into the race with just a maiden win, but trainer Dallas Stewart knows how to get a long shot to run big in a Triple Crown race, and the colt made a good late run to finish second at odds of 28-1.
There is not much speed signed up in the Belmont Stakes, and that does not bode well for his chances. However, he will be rallying late and could land for a share at another generous price.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
The Contenders
4 of 9
Materiality (13-2): This colt is one of five that ran in the Kentucky Derby and skipped the Preakness. The colt was making just his fourth career start in Louisville and had a rough trip in a sixth-place finish. The colt was expected to be close to the pace but was off a beat slow.
His win in the Florida Derby was one of the most impressive efforts in a Kentucky Derby points race, and he still appears to have some upside. With a better break, he figures to be right in the mix early with the betting favorite.
Frosted (5-1): The Kiaran McLaughlin trainee came into the Kentucky Derby off a career-best effort winning the Wood Memorial. He was the only runner in the stretch at Churchill Downs making up any significant ground, rallying to finish fourth.
The colt won’t be as far back in the Belmont, and this colt looks to be a major threat to derail American Pharoah’s bid at history. McLaughlin won the 2006 Belmont with Jazil.
Dark Horse Pick
5 of 9
Mubtaahij (16-1): This colt was sent off as the sixth choice in the Kentucky Derby and was making his U.S. debut. The colt stamped his ticket to Louisville by winning the UAE Derby in Dubai. However, perhaps the long trip took its toll, because the colt was not a serious threat in an eighth-place finish.
He is conditioned by one of the leading trainers in the world in Michael De Kock, and the fact the colt stayed in the U.S. for the Belmont instead of shipping back across the pond should be noted. The colt also picks up one of New York’s leading riders in Irad Ortiz.
The Favorite
6 of 9
American Pharoah (4-5): For the 14th time since 1978, a horse shows up in New York attempting to win the Triple Crown, and so far, none have been able to pull it off. California Chrome was sent down to defeat as the betting favorite last year.
There is no doubt American Pharoah is the best of his generation, but we have seen betting favorites lose in their Triple Crown bids at very short prices, including Big Brown at 1-5 and Smarty Jones at 2-5. His current odds at Odds Shark are 4-5, no real bargain.
Early Prediction for Show: Frosted
7 of 9
The final field and post positions have not been determined, but let’s make an early prediction for the top three finishers of the Belmont Stakes.
Frosted will try to give trainer Kiaran McLaughlin his second Belmont win. A throat procedure after his disappointing fourth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth got him back on track, winning the Wood Memorial in his next start.
The colt should be sitting closer to the pace and will be rallying late to pick up a share, but may have a tough time catching the top pair for the win.
Early Prediction for Place: Materiality
8 of 9
Materiality should be right up front with the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner, and the two may have things fairly easy in the early going, as there is not much early speed in the race.
The colt should get off to a better start and get a better trip, and a repeat of his Florida Derby victory may be good enough to win in this spot.
Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Belmont twice and has had four horses finish in the runner up spot. This guy could be the fifth.
Early Prediction for Win: American Pharoah
9 of 9
The betting price is going to be short, but the Bob Baffert trainee is the most logical winner. The race shape suits him as he should be on the lead or sitting just off the pace in the early going, and horses near the lead have the tactical advantage in the Belmont.
The main knock on this colt is the short price and recent history that says favorites get beaten in this race. Just five of the last 29 favorites have won the third jewel of the Triple Crown.
It is tough to imagine him not getting a good trip and, if making his third start in five weeks does not take its toll, he could make history on Saturday.
Baffert seems confident, telling Claire Novak of Blood Horse shortly after American Pharoah’s final workout on Monday, “The only time we get nervous is when things aren't going well or you start worrying about something. But so far everything's been on right schedule; we haven't had any setbacks, no hiccups, so that's the main thing."
Preakness betting odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
Follow Michael Dempsey on Twitter @turfnsport.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
