Belmont Stakes Odds 2015: Betting Guide to Favorites and Dark Horses

The Belmont Stakes is a great betting race. Why? American Pharoah, this year’s Triple Crown contender, will take in more money than a Bank of America.

With thousands of people placing souvenir bets on Pharoah, that sinks his odds and raises those of the rest. That spells chances to cash in big on the upset.

Here, for once, the odds are in your favor to beat the favorite. The horses who upset the Triple Crown contenders of the 21st century went off at odds at 36-1 (Birdstone, 2004), 38-1 (Da' Tara, 2008) and 8-1 (Tonalist, 2014).

Let’s crunch together a betting guide worthy of an upset, if you’re into that kind of thing.

Dark-Horse Contender: Mubtaahij

Morning-line odds: 10-1

He had an explosive turn of foot while winning the UAE Derby and ran impressively to finish eighth in the Kentucky Derby. That was after traveling the globe from Dubai to Chicago to Louisville. He's been at Belmont Park longer than a New York minute, and that will only help this fine colt.

John Scheinman, an Eclipse Award-winning writer for this story, told me in an email: "I think Mubtaahij needs to be given a second look. His performances in Dubai were very strong, tracking leaders at a high cruising speed and powering by. I think he, and trainer Mike de Kock, needed to get acclimated and they will come better prepared to the Belmont."

Mubtaahij didn’t get a lot of respect in the Derby because some thought he defeated an inferior field of unknowns at Meydan. Pish posh.

“Serious race horses don't just get written off because they don't win the Kentucky Derby,” Scheinman told me, “and I would apply the same logic to Mubtaahij."

It should be noted: Scheinman is a killer handicapper.

Dark-Horse Contender: Keen Ice

Morning-line odds: 20-1

Keen Ice came charging with a ton of speed in the Kentucky Derby, after having to check. He lost a ton of momentum and still passed a whole bunch of horses in the final eighth of a mile.

“If you watch Keen Ice’s race in the Derby, when everyone else was shoving for all they were worth at the three-eighths pole,” Gary Young, a veteran clocker, said on PaulickReport.com, “he was passing horses under a pull and he had to steady for more than an eighth of a mile."

Keen Ice, a son of 2007 Belmont Stakes runner-up Curlin, will be doing his running late. He may not get up for the win, but if there’s enough fatigue up front, he may pick off horses again like he did in Kentucky.

The Favorite: American Pharoah

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press

The favorite sits at 3-5 on the morning line and is a bad bet for two reasons.

First, who really wants to bet a horse that below even money? Second, no horse has won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes since 1978. 

For those reasons American Pharoah is a horrible bet if you’re looking to make money on the race. He’s a great bet insofar as he’s the best horse in the field, but will he be the best on that day? His problem sits with the cumulative wear on those tires: four races in eight weeks.

Also, you know, there’s science. Glycogen stores, muscle breakdown and skeletal microtrauma all add up to one nasty, Triple Crown-busting snowball.

Lexi Pandell wrote on Wired.com:

"

At different points in its stride, a galloping horse puts all its weight on a single leg. That limb bears three times more weight than usual when galloping on a straightaway and, thanks to centrifugal force, a load five to 10 times greater on turns. This translates to skeletal microdamage.

"

American Pharoah just hasn’t had the rest that other horses have had, and with live horses taking stay-cations like Mubtaahij and Frosted, the deck is stacked against our hero.

Best Simple Bets

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Trainer Mike de Kock sporting his Mubtaahij cap.

Dumbest simple bet: win bet on American Pharoah.

Smartest simple bet: win bet on Materiality, Frosted or Mubtaahij. 

All three of these horses ran good races in the Kentucky Derby and then took a break. Instead of running in the Preakness, they trained up to the Belmont with a full five weeks of rest.

Mubtaahij had the added benefit of having acclimated to the States, staying in one place long enough to get a feel for the track.

"I think all the traveling and all the changes like feed, surroundings, changes, no one really wants to go through that going into a race like the Derby,” de Kock said in an NYRA release. “Unfortunately those were the hoops he had to jump through. It's far more advantageous to be at Belmont and settled."

At 10-1 on the morning line, Mubtaahij may go off at 8-1 or even higher at 12-1 as American Pharoah takes more and more win money. What's not to love about that?

Best Exotic Bets

Garry Jones/Associated Press

If you’re hellbent on using American Pharoah, the best way to stretch your dollar is to key or box him in exactas and trifectas.

Keying would put American Pharoah on top in either bet. He wins, and you fill in as many horses underneath him. Boxing means he can win and everyone else can finish anywhere.

Given the amount of mileage American Pharoah has run, there’s a solid chance he finishes off the board, so even if you box second-choice Frosted with a longer shot like Keen Ice, you could walk away with enough money to take your boo past the Taco Bell and right to the Olive Garden.

Go easy on the breadsticks, Sparky.

Best Multi-Race Wagers

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

Tonalist returns in the Met Mile.

Here’s the wagering menu, but I’ll break it down some here.

There are rolling daily doubles and Pick 3s all day.

Pick 4s start on Race 2, Race 8* and Race 10.

Pick 6 starts on Race 6.**

Now the seasoned horse player comes to life. Here you can even get away with singling American Pharoah at whatever terrible betting odds he’ll have with wider tickets on Pick 3s, Pick 4s and the drop-the-mic-if-you-win Pick 6.

The historic Metropolitan Handicap gets Private Zone, one of the best sprinters in the country going longer. It also gets 2014 Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist and 2014 Wood Memorial winner Wicked Strong turning back to a mile.

And another thing: The 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Bayern tries to move forward off his disappointing 2015 debut on the Kentucky Derby undercard.

Singling American Pharoah in the Belmont would allow you to go wide in the Met Mile to keep your late Pick 4 going or to start a Pick 3.

*$1.5 million guaranteed

**$1 million guaranteed

Prediction

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press

In the Preakness, I selected Firing Line because he was fresher and probably got a boost in fitness from the Derby.

Then it rained, and American Pharoah ran away with it. It’s false logic to think that lowly me picking against American Pharoah earned him the win in Baltimore, but fans aren’t logical.

Following that obtuse rationale, I’ll pick against him, again hoping I’m wrong. I won’t throw just any horse above the Pharoah for the sake of doing it, though. These horses really could win this race. Maybe they should win the race given their fuel reserves.

1. Mubtaahij
2. Frosted
3. Keen Ice
4. American Pharoah

All odds are courtesy of Belmont Park, and all quotes, unless otherwise noted, were obtained firsthand.