Triple Crown 2015: American Pharoah's Sleeper Contenders with Best Odds
Excitement is starting to pick up this week as the Belmont Stakes comes into greater focus with yet another potential champion making a run at the Triple Crown.
Twelve horses have tried to accomplish the feat of winning the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes and running off into glory in the process. All of them have failed since since Affirmed and his legendary jockey Steve Cauthen pulled it off in 1978.
Seattle Slew won all three races the year before Affirmed did it, and it looked like Spectacular Bid would make it three Triple Crown winners in a row in 1979, but he stepped on a safety pin the day of the race, and he could not run his best race and lost in the Belmont Stakes.
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California Chrome had the same opportunity last year after winning the Derby and the Preakness, but he was defeated in heartbreaking fashion.
American Pharoah appears to have as strong an opportunity as any of the previous dozen horses who have gone to the post in the Belmont Stakes with an opportunity to win all three classic three-year-old races.
A strong victory in the Derby, an even better performance in the Preakness and incident-free training activity since then has left American Pharoah (4-5, according to Odds Shark) as the odds-on favorite in the eight-horse field.
| Horse | Odds |
| American Pharoah | 4-5 |
| Frosted | 5-1 |
| Materiality | 13-2 |
| Madefromlucky | 12-1 |
| Mubtaahij | 16-1 |
| Tale of Verve | 20-1 |
| Keen Ice | 25-1 |
| Frammento | 33-1 |
Frosted (5-1) and Materiality (13-2) are the strongest contenders in the field, and they appear to have the best chance of defeating American Pharoah in the 1 1/2-mile race. The rest of the field consists of sleepers/outsiders/long shots who may draw some support from horse racing fans who are hoping for a boxcar payout on the tote board or are just banking on the Triple Crown dry spell continuing.
Madefromlucky (12-1) may be the best of the sleepers in the Belmont field. He is trained by Todd Pletcher, who has been quite successful in preparing horses to run their best race in the third jewel of the Triple Crown after running poorly in the Kentucky Derby. Since 2009, Pletcher has trained three horses that ran first or second in the Belmont Stakes after finishing 11th or worse at Churchill Downs.
Madefromlucky won two stakes races earlier in the year. That indicates he has talent, and he also has the pedigree to run the distance and contend with Belmont Park's long stretch run.
Mubtaahij (16-1) came into the Kentucky Derby with hopes of having a legitimate chance to win that race after winning the UAE Derby. However, he never fired even though he saved ground throughout the race. Mubtaahij may have been too far behind to ever get interested in the race, and he would be better served by staying closer to the pace in the Belmont Stakes.
Regular jockey Christophe Soumillon will not ride Mubtaahij, as trainer Mike de Kock said the rider had another commitment. Irad Ortiz will be in the irons on Saturday.
Tale of Verve (20-1) was a huge outsider in the Preakness, but strange things often happen in the rain, and he ran a strong race after a thunderstorm hit the Baltimore race track. Tale of Verve finished second to American Pharoah, and he could jump up and become a contender here if the weather becomes a factor. There's a 40 percent chance of afternoon showers on Saturday at the Elmont, New York track, according to Weather.com.
Tale of Verve is a closer, so he would almost certainly need horses on the front end to burn themselves out with a crushing speed duel to have a chance if it does not rain.
Keen Ice (25-1) finished seventh in the Kentucky Derby, and while that was not awful considering the 18-horse field, it's not a lot to recommend. However, Keen Ice has the pedigree to handle the 1 1/2-mile distance and that's an important factor. Keen Ice likes to fall back in the pack and then pass tiring horses, and that style has not been successful in recent Belmont Stakes races.
Frammento (33-1) is trained by colorful Nick Zito, and he has saddled a pair of Triple Crown spoilers in the last 12 years. Zito's Birdstone upset Smarty Jones in 2004 while he also prepared Da'Tara to a victory over Big Brown in 2008. Frammento has a chance if he can stay within a few lengths of the leaders at the three-quarter-mile mark because he has a grinding style that allows him to pick up the field and pass the competition.
Still, it will be difficult for any of these horses to beat American Pharoah in this race. If any of these upset-minded runners is going to end up in the winner's circle, that victorious horse would need to run an A-plus race while the favorite would have to run a C-minus race or worse.
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