Belmont Stakes 2015 Odds: Examining Recent Vegas Lines for Entire Field
We're quickly closing in on June 6 and post time for the 147th running of the Belmont Stakes.
This year's version features yet another attempt—this time by American Pharoah and Victor Espinoza—to break the 37-year Triple Crown drought cast over the racing community since Affirmed last accomplished the feat in 1978.
The field is small but difficult and features five horses who all have a legitimate shot to win this year's race. Round those five out with a trio of Triple Crown runners, and you've got yourself a race.
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Before we get to race day though, there's going to be a ton of handicapping and form-reading, as every horse player—novice, veteran or otherwise—and their mother will be out betting on the Belmont so they can get in on the action.
So, to help you all figure things out before placing your bets, here's a breakdown of the most recent Vegas lines (via Odds Shark) for this year's Belmont Stakes field.
Field and Vegas Odds
| American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | 5-6 |
| Frosted | Joel Rosario | Kiaran McLaughlin | 11-2 |
| Materiality | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 13-2 |
| Mubtaahij | Irad Ortiz Jr. | Michael de Kock | 16-1 |
| Madefromlucky | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 16-1 |
| Tale of Verve | Gary Stevens | Dallas Stewart | 22-1 |
| Keen Ice | Kent Desormeaux | Dale Romans | 28-1 |
| Frammento | Mike Smith | Nick Zito | 40-1 |
| The Truth or Else | Edgar Prado | Ken McPeek | 50-1 |
Odds Review
American Pharoah is the obvious favorite as we approach race day. Though it's hard to imagine his line moving off the current 5-6 mark he's receiving from Bovada, via Odds Shark, it may do just that with the news that broke earlier today.
WinStar Farm CEO Elliott Walden took to Twitter earlier today to announce the company's decision to drop Carpe Diem from consideration for the 147th running of the Belmont:
With one of the biggest threats to American Pharoah now out of the race, the Derby and Preakness winner's road to the Triple Crown seems slightly easier.
In addition to the loss of Carpe Diem, the field also saw another dropout in the form of the Ken McPeek-trained The Truth or Else. The Yes It's True colt never figured to be much of a contender, but it's certainly worth noting since we now have a small, eight-horse field.
So Pharoah's now a must-bet, right? Well, no.
Look, if you're in the business of making money when you bet, then at 4-5, American Pharoah is a must-beat. Unless we see an off track on Saturday—which right now is totally possible if you believe the Weather Channel's 10-day forecast—then your best bet is to try and beat American Pharoah.
The most attractive option on the board is Frosted. The three-year-old son of Tapit has performed well in the Northeast and owns two wins at the Aqueduct dirt track, as well as second-place finishes at both Belmont and Saratoga.
Belmont's track is unique, and the young colt has taken well to it since he began training there on May 15, this per Equibase's workout tracker.
Frosted's impressive victory in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial speaks volumes to his ability to go the distance, as he likely ran something more like 1 ½ miles after getting stuck running three and four wide through the 1 ⅛ mile race's two turns.
At 5-1, the Tapit colt is an absolute must-bet and a likely candidate to upset American Pharoah.
Materiality (13-2), Madefromlucky (12-1) and Mubtaahij (16-1) make up the middle of the field, and two of those three stand out in a big way.
Materiality and Mubtaahij are must-bets on race day. The two could easily sneak in for in-the-money finishes, but for different reasons.
Materiality has outstanding speed.
The Afleet Alex colt was a three-time winner prior to his sixth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby last month, and after a month on the shelf and time to train for the Belmont Stakes, he should bounce back rather nicely. The young colt is also trained by one of the sports all-time greats—Todd Pletcher—and it doesn't hurt that he'll saddle Hall of Fame-jockey John Velazquez either.
If he's able to get up toward the lead and keep within striking distance, Materiality will have a big say in the race's final outcome.
Meanwhile, Mubtaahij has quietly become one of the top under-the-radar contenders in this field.
The UAE Derby winner didn't run particularly well in the Kentucky Derby, but that was somewhat predictable, given it was his first race in the United States. Since then, however, the Dubawi colt has been working up a storm at Belmont Park.
The Michael de Kock-trained colt logged a bullet on Belmont's inner-turf track back on May 17, and his most recent workout—he ran five furlongs in 1:01.05 on May 30—suggests that he'll be ready to go.
Given the ease with which international runners tend to handle long-distance races, Mubtaahij makes for an intriguing play this weekend, especially at 16-1.
Frammento, Keen Ice and Tale of Verve don't stand much of a chance to figure into this race, and betting on any of them with anything more than intent to round out your trifecta and superfecta tickets would be a risky investment.
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