Belmont Stakes 2015: Early Odds and Predictions for Entire Entry Lineup
Let the overwhelming storyline tell it, and American Pharoah seems headed to the Belmont Stakes to run against himself with a frenzied crowd of onlookers cheering him to the Triple Crown.
If only it were so easy.
Other top trainers and horses will take to New York for the final leg of the Triple Crown soon in the hopes of playing the spoiler, highlighted by trainer Todd Pletcher.
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While the allure of seeing the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years demands attention, the projected field isn't too shabby and hints at yet another potential history-making horse suffering an upset.
Here's a look at the projected field:
| American Pharoah | 5-6 | 1 |
| Frosted | 11-2 | 3 |
| Materiality | 13-2 | 2 |
| Carpe Diem | 12-1 | 7 |
| Madefromlucky | 16-1 | 6 |
| Mubtaahij | 16-1 | 5 |
| Keen Ice | 28-1 | 4 |
| Tale of Verve | 22-1 | 8 |
| Frammento | 40-1 | 9 |
| The Truth or Else | 50-1 | 10 |
An upset almost seems a given.
American Pharoah readies for his third race in a little more than a month, with the first two legs of the Triple Crown no easy feats. Even worse, contenders rested up for this event in particular, which also happens to be the longest of the three.
Look at Pletcher, who trots Madefromlucky to the field. He didn't run in the Kentucky Derby or Preakness Stakes, but he did give American Pharoah everything he could handle in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes this past March.
Pletcher will also run Carpe Diem, who struggled in a deep field at Churchill Downs, finishing 10th. Oh, and there's also favorite Materiality, who finished sixth at the Kentucky Derby and features the come-from-behind ability ripe to create an upset.
For Pletcher, entering three horses has nothing to do with playing Triple Crown spoiler.
“What if I wanted to run a horse in the Kentucky Derby and he was 21st on points, so then I wouldn’t be able to run in the Preakness or the Belmont because of that,” Pletcher said, per Jerry Bossert of the New York Daily News. “Nah. There are no rules to say you have to run in any of the three.”
He's not alone in upset potential, though. Michael F. de Kock features the potential with Mubtaahij, who will make his second American start in New York and features the pedigree suggesting a strong performance at a long distance.
Dale L. Romans' Keen Ice isn't one to sleep on, either, not after a seventh-place finish at Churchill Downs and a sire by the name of Curlin, who finished second at the Belmont and first in a Breeders Cup Classic.
Then there's Frosted, trained by Kiaran P. McLaughlin. A fourth-place finish at the Kentucky Derby turned the globe on to the colt's ability, and now it's just a matter of using the ample rest time to put on a strong performance in a longer, albeit less-crowded affair.
No matter how boring and predictable, though, there's no reason to go against American Pharoah in this one.
Most points about a potential upset have counterpoints. Some top contenders are rested? American Pharoah hasn't shown any signs of slowing yet. Post position could hurt him? It didn't at Churchill Downs, where he flirted with the winless No. 17 hole. Ditto at Pimlico, where he drew the rail in sloppy conditions and breezed a wire-to-wire victory.
Race distance might be an issue, sure, but this is a horse who has come from behind in an 18-horse field to win and bested a talented field in the mud. He's also directed by jockey Victor Espinoza, who will know just how to play the race considering he's gunning for a historic third shot at a Triple Crown win.
To top it all off, racing's best horse looks great so far, as Yahoo Sports' Pat Forde illustrates:
Maybe this is the point, finally—American Pharoah is the horse to trump the odds of this new-look racing environment where horses out of the Triple Crown race save up to play the spoiler at the final leg.
It's still early, and a lot can change, but American Pharoah looks like he will live up to the immense hype, a feat perhaps just as rare as taking the first Triple Crown in 37 years.
Stats and information via Preakness.com unless otherwise specified. Odds courtesy of Odds Shark as of June 1.
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