2015 Belmont Stakes: Odds and Predictions for Top Favorites Among All Entries
American Pharoah is a strong 5-6 favorite to win the Belmont Stakes, and bettors are likely to make him even more of a short price to win the race before the field of 10 lines up and runs the 1 1/2-mile race at Belmont Park on Saturday.
Not only are horsemen and fans alike rooting for American Pharoah to become the sport's first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed accomplished the feat in 1978, but the impressive way in which he won the Preakness May 16 has continued to raise his status.
American Pharoah won by seven lengths in the Baltimore race, and he did it in the middle of a thunderstorm that hit the area just minutes before the race. It would not have been a surprise if American Pharoah had run an ordinary or dull race given the sudden weather change, but Bob Baffert trained him superbly, and the conditions brought out his best race.
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Baffert obviously wants to see his horse break the streak of 12 horses that have gone forward with a chance to win the first Triple Crown since 1978 but have failed. In addition to what it would mean for himself, jockey Victor Espinoza and American Pharoah's ownership connections, the public is yearning for the sport's first Triple Crown winner in 37 years.
"I don't want to let those fans down," Baffert told Tim Wilkin of the Albany (NY) Times Union. "They want to see it happen. Like everyone else, I am a fan. I am part trainer, part fan. I get excited just thinking about it. Maybe he is the horse. I will be watching this as a fan, not a trainer. "
Baffert is overstating his interest, but horse racing observers get the picture.
| Horse | Odds |
| American Pharoah | 5-6 |
| Frosted | 11-2 |
| Materiality | 13-2 |
| Carpe Diem | 12-1 |
| Mubtaahij | 16-1 |
| Madefromlucky | 16-1 |
| Tale of Verve | 22-1 |
| Keen Ice | 28-1 |
| Frammento | 40-1 |
| The Truth or Else | 50-1 |
While American Pharoah has been victorious in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, the Belmont is known as the test of champions because any horse that is vying for the Triple Crown must finish three demanding races in a five-week span, with the Belmont Stakes serving as the longest and toughest of those races.
The other horses in the Belmont Stakes have been resting and waiting for their opportunity, while American Pharoah has been running. In the past, many of the horses in the Belmont field would also run in the first two legs of the Triple Crown. American Pharoah is the only horse that is competing in all three races this year.
The field largely consists of long shots, but three horses would appear to have more than a puncher's chance of pushing American Pharoah hard and possibly winning the race.
Frosted, 11-2, is the second choice in the field, and he is likely to gather more support from this point forward because of his impressive Kentucky Derby rally. He moved from 15th to fourth place in the race, and he has been waiting for this opportunity to run at the Belmont Stakes since then.
Frosted did not like running in the crowded 18-horse Kentucky Derby field, and he should be able to position himself much better in the early part of the race in New York. If he is running from the middle of the field through the first half of the race, he could be in a position to launch a memorable run if he can maintain his drive through the long Belmont Park stretch.
Materiality, 13-2, has won three of the four races he has entered in his lifetime. While the loss came in the Kentucky Derby, Materiality ran a fast last quarter-mile and rallied to finish sixth in that race. That's a good sign going into the Belmont Stakes.
Another good sign is that he is trained by Todd Pletcher, and he has had past success in the Belmont Stakes. Materiality also has a distance-running pedigree, and he should be able to finish the race in good shape if he can work himself into a contending position by the top of the stretch.
At 12-1, Carpe Diem is the most popular of the long shots in the field. Carpe Diem is another Pletcher-trained horse—Madefromlucky is his third—and while the horse finished an uninspired 10th in the Derby, he has won two stakes races this year.
Carpe Diem won the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes, and he wouldn't have won those races if he was not a talented runner. He also has the pedigree to be successful at the distance, so he should not be overlooked in this race.
Top horsemen will come forward with their opinions as race day gets closer, but Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas has given American Pharoah his stamp of approval.
"Yeah, I do think he will," Lukas told the Times Union. "There are a number of reasons. He has had the right program. He really was lightly raced this spring. People talk about having a fresh horse in the Belmont, and he really is a fresh horse. The Belmont is won by a horse with a high cruising speed, and he has that."
Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens noted American Pharoah's improvement in the Preakness. Stevens said he thought the Kentucky stretch drive might have taken something out of American Pharoah, but "it made him better."
Predicted Finish in Belmont Stakes:
1. American Pharoah: There's no stopping the powerful champion.
2. Frosted: The strong runner will push hard into the stretch.
3. Tale of Verve: The outsider ran well in the Preakness.
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