Belmont Stakes Odds 2015: Latest Betting Lines and Predictions
At long last we’ve reached Belmont Stakes Week. For the second consecutive year—and third time in four years—we have the added zest of a Triple Crown contender heading into this week.
The buzz makes an otherwise lackluster and better-off-forgotten Belmont Stakes all the more appealing. That’s too bad, because this race is the test of the champion for a reason: It’s the longest race any of these horses will ever run. For American Pharoah, it's his third race in five weeks.
New shooters and Preakness skippers will take aim at American Pharoah in this latest renewal of the Belmont Stakes, and that makes the challenge that much greater and the reward as sweet as a peppermint.
Read on for the latest look at odds (courtesy of Odds Shark) and some early predictions for this run for the white carnations.
Frammento
1 of 8
Latest Odds: 40-1
What He’s Done
Frammento finished 12th in the Kentucky Derby after a troubled trip. On paper he’s a cut below the stronger contenders here, but he’s training well and he has trainer Nick Zito in his stall, a trainer who has twice upset bids for the Triple Crown (2004, 2008).
How He’ll Fare
Frammento is a deep closer, but he’ll have to be up closer to the pace to stay within striking distance of the leaders to win the Belmont Stakes.
With a cleaner trip, he could factor in this race. That all depends on pace and a little bit a lot of luck. With Zito calling the shots, he must be respected, especially since a Triple Crown is on the line.
"We always have a good Belmont," Zito said in a New York Racing Association release. "Our horses always run good in the Belmont. That's what you hope happens. Hopefully, we'll be OK."
Prediction: Sixth
Keen Ice
2 of 8
Latest Odds: 28-1
What He’s Done
Keen Ice finished seventh in the Kentucky Derby below jockey Kent Desormeaux. Desormeaux is a winner of three Kentucky Derbys and got the best out of this late-running colt.
"He doesn't have a lot of front-end speed," Jerry Crawford, Donegal Racing president, told John Naughton of the Des Moines Register. "(Jockey) Kent Desormeaux said he could have been fourth if he had not been stopped by horses several times."
How He’ll Fare
He’ll need a lot of pace to chase, and there just isn’t that much. Keen Ice won’t have the benefit of great speed in the first flight, and that greatly compromises his chances.
Desormeaux isn’t one to burn a horse out to finish seventh so unless there’s lots of speed, he’ll finish way in the back.
Prediction: Eighth
Tale of Verve
3 of 8Latest Odds: 22-1
What He’s Done
Tale of Verve was the surprise runner-up of the Preakness Stakes. The mud did little to favor some of the other favorites. American Pharoah bolted for the lead, and what was left in his muddy wake was anyone’s guess.
There to mop up the best of the rest on that day was Tale of Verve, trained by Dallas Stewart. He said in a New York Racing Association release:
"He had a good long gallop all the way around the track yesterday and today under [exercise rider and apprentice jockey] Cortez Walker. The horse looks great, his appetite is great—he had five scoops last night. He's doing really well. I'm pleased with the way he's handling things up here.
"
How He’ll Fare
Maybe if Tale of Verve gets another muddy track he can strike where others may fail. He’s still the winner of just one maiden race but can boast that he has placed in a Grade-1 race.
He, too, will do most of his running late as he joins closers Frammento and Keen Ice. Stewart said in the release.
"You think how many foals were born his year [approximately 21,725, according to the Jockey Club], and of those, there are only nine shots to be 1-2-3 in the classics, and he's one of them. We want to get the win for him. With his breeding, the way he eats, the way he handles himself, I think he can do it.
"
Prediction: Seventh
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Madefromlucky
4 of 8Latest Odds: 16-1
What He’s Done
After finishing well behind American Pharoah in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby, Madefromlucky took a different course of action. His trainer, Todd Pletcher (get used to his name in this slideshow), skipped the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.
Pletcher aimed him at the Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park and he went on to win impressively.
How He’ll Fare
Tonalist, 2014’s winner of the Peter Pan, used the Peter Pan to propel himself to Belmont—and Triple Crown-spoiling—glory.
There’s something to be said for relishing the track. Once Madefromlucky switched from his left to his right lead while turning for home in the Peter Pan, he took off like a rocket.
Pletcher has won this race twice, most recently in 2013 with Palace Malice. Will Madefromlucky be the Pletcher horse most capable, or will it be one of the other athletes in his barn?
Prediction: Fourth
Mubtaahij
5 of 8Latest Odds: 16-1
What He’s Done
Mubtaahij ran a good, solid eighth in the Kentucky Derby, thus validating his talent from what was a weak group of unknowns in the UAE Derby.
He won that race with such explosive turn of foot that it looked like he’d relish extra distance. He skipped the Preakness and comes back for revenge against the Pharoah in the Belmont Stakes
How He'll Fare
Mubtaahij got acquainted with his new jockey, Belmont homer Irad Ortiz Jr. Mubtaahij has been working well over the Belmont oval, and that gives him a chance to run back to his Derby form.
"He basically did exactly what we wanted him to,” trainer Mike de Kock’s assistant Trevor Brown said in a New York Racing Association release. “The important thing was just getting the jockey on him to give him a chance to get accustomed to the horse and get to know him. Irad was pretty happy with the horse. He said he's ready."
He has the perfect running style to win a Belmont Stakes. He’ll be right in the middle of the field, close to the leaders, though not on the pace.
Prediction: Fifth
Materiality
6 of 8
Latest Odds: 13/2
What He’s Done
Materiality is wildly talented and he showed it while winning the Grade 1 Florida Derby in just his third career start.
In his fourth start, he broke from Post 3 and rallied to finish sixth in the Kentucky Derby. He’s the real deal, and he’s fresh for a scary run at the win here.
How He’ll Fare
He seems eerily similar to Palace Malice back in 2013, the last time Pletcher won this race. Materiality also benefits from his sire, Afleet Alex.
Afleet Alex won the Belmont in 2005 by daylight, and it looks like Materiality could live up to his bloodline. Materiality may go to the lead and try to control the tempo of this 12-furlong marathon.
"You know, he's the kind of horse who kind of does what his workmate does,” Pletcher said in Jonathan Lintner’s Courier-Journal story. “It was a very good, progressive breeze, picking it up as they went along, with a very strong gallop out. [Materiality] came back and he wasn't even blowing. He just took it all very well."
This colt is dangerous, very dangerous in this spot.
Prediction: Second
Frosted
7 of 8
Latest Odds: 11-2
What He’s Done
Based on his strong fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, Frosted has earned odds of 11-2 as the second choice.
"We ran good breaking from a wide post in an 18-horse field and going six wide on the far turn, and we wish there were more pace," trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said on BloodHorse.com. "He ran a great race, but we were a little disappointed. We wanted to win.”
This son of Tapit is a versatile horse. He can come from off the pace or he can rate mid-pack. That’s where he’ll be: mid-pack, where his jockey will keep a close eye on the leaders and make a sustained run at them in the final quarter-mile.
How He’ll Fare
Frosted and Materiality pose the biggest threats to American Pharoah’s bid at history. Both horses have the talent to give Pharoah fits down the lane.
Frosted, the Wood Memorial winner, skipped the Preakness after his impressive Derby run and looks to become McLaughlin’s second winner of this race, his first being Jazil in 2006.
Joel Rosario, who won this race a year ago with Tonalist, gets the mount and makes Frosted even more formidable than he already was.
Prediction: Third
American Pharoah
8 of 8
Latest Odds: 5-6
What He’s Done
Oh, you know, there’s that Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes combination that he won with aplomb. He’s the 13th horse contending for the Triple Crown since Affirmed won all three of these things back in 1978.
John Pricci of HorseRaceInsider.com wrote, "True greatness demands challenge and overcoming adversity, even one as unrealistic as winning the modern version of the Triple Crown. Admittedly, the timing is the same, only today’s American Thoroughbred isn’t that hearty."
How hearty will the Pharoah be?
How He’ll Fare
American Pharoah has history against him. Only 11 horses have won the Triple Crown, and it takes a truly special, not to mention lucky, horse to finish the job.
Jorge Alvarez, Pharoah’s exercise rider said in a Churchill Downs release after his most recent gallop:
"It was another good day. He was a little more aggressive this morning and wanted to do more, but I just kept doing my thing. I’m feeling more excited than nervous. We just feel that we have the right horse and he’s doing well. We’re all staying positive.
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American Pharoah is like an ace with multiple pitches. He can win on the lead (see the Preakness, Rebel Stakes). He can win while rating (see Kentucky Derby).
Jockey Victor Espinoza will have options. He could go to the lead, or he could sit. Much of this depends on the post draw. If the pace through the first quarter-mile is tepid, Pharoah will step to the front. Very fast? He’ll be happy to sit and relax.
Prediction: History
Unless otherwise noted, quotes from releases were obtained firsthand.
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