Triple Crown Glory Will Elude American Pharoah at 2015 Belmont Stakes
It takes a special horse to race to victory in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes in the same season, and there’s little denying American Pharoah belongs in that kind of immaculate bracket. But even this wonderful colt is going to struggle to seize Triple Crown glory at the 2015 Belmont Stakes.
The Bob Baffert-trained three-year-old heads to New York with a fine chance of becoming the first horse to seize the coveted trio of titles since Affirmed in 1978. It’s been 37 years since such a staggering feat was achieved, and as such, the hype surrounding Pharoah is understandable.
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As we can see here courtesy of the Churchill Downs Twitter account, the Kentucky winner has been putting the work in at a familiar venue in the buildup to the iconic race:
But it’s also worth noting just how many horses have gotten to this stage since Affirmed before faltering. Indeed, Victor Espinoza, who will be on board the Preakness champion in the Belmont Stakes, had a chance for the Triple Crown in the saddle of California Chrome last year, but the colt suffered a foot injury coming out of the gate, and his chances were scuppered.
It just goes to show how precarious the charge for glory can be, as 13 horses have failed to back up wins at both the Derby and Preakness with the third victory. One error from the runner, a tactical slip from the jockey, being handed a poor draw—all of these factors can sap the momentum from a charge for all three titles.
Nonetheless, American Pharoah remains the big favourite on the back of wins at Churchill Downs and Pimlico earlier this year:
| American Pharoah | 5-6 |
| Frosted | 11-2 |
| Materiality | 13-2 |
| Carpe Diem | 12-1 |
| Madefromlucky | 16-1 |
| Mubtaahij | 16-1 |
| Tale of Verve | 22-1 |
| Keen Ice | 28-1 |
| Frammento | 40-1 |
| The Truth or Else | 50-1 |
Odds accurate as of 5 p.m. (BST), May 31. For full listings checkout Odds Shark.
Belmont represents a challenge entirely different from what Pharoah is used to, though. While the distances of the Derby and Preakness are 10 and 9.5 furlongs, respectively, the showpiece race in Elmont is a much longer 12 furlongs.
It may not sound like much, but on the back of a couple of draining races—Baffert’s crown jewel had to push hard in the first two legs of the Triple Crown—that added distance can take its toll. As we can see here courtesy of the Washington Times, there are going to be plenty of contenders to challenge the favourite, too:
In truth, as impressive as Pharoah was in difficult conditions to win the Preakness, the standard of the field wasn’t up to much aside from Firing Line and Dortmund. But with an injection of class up against him here, things are going to be much more difficult for the colt, who is the only horse in the field that’ll have run all of the Triple Crown races.
Indeed, as noted by James Scully of Brisnet.com, there’s going to be a lot of competition at Belmont come race day:
Frosted is closest to the favourite in the eyes of the bookmakers. He finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby after a late surge, and aboard the Kiaran McLaughlin-trained colt will be Joel Rosario; the Dominican steered Tonalist to victory in this race 12 months ago and will have similar hopes of halting a Triple Crown charge once again.
As we can see here courtesy of Furlong News, Frosted has been doing a lot of preparation for this race in New York:
In addition to McLaughlin’s hope, Todd Pletcher has a trio of chances. Materiality didn’t show his best at Kentucky, although the longer distance at Belmont should suit him, while Carpe Diem and Madefromlucky will also fancy their chances; the latter will be making his debut in the season’s Triple Crown races and will be tough to shake off should he get in front.
Either way, history dictates that Belmont’s notoriety for shocks will make this a bittersweet year for Pharoah and Baffert. There’s understandable and warranted excitement about this horse’s chances but so many reasons as to why those ready to bet on a historic victory should exercise caution.
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