College Football Week 1 Locks

Midwest Sports FansAnalyst ISeptember 3, 2009

COLUMBIA, SC - SEPTEMBER 17:  Keith Brown #89 of the Alabama Crimson Tide breaks free for a touchdown against the South Carolina Gamecocks on September 17, 2005 at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, South Carolina.  (Photo By Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

If you decide to go with my picks I have a few rules, and both are equally important:

  • Rule #1 Don’t bet what you don’t have. You don’t want to spend grocery money on my picks no matter how hot I get. 
  • Rule #2 No matter how much you like a game, bet the same amount on the all games I give you. Freaky things happen in college football.

This is the time of the year when you make your money. Vegas is not sure how certain teams are going to perform, how new players are going to react to certain situations, and who will be the new stars emerge across the country.

And for the record, I only play the big games, the games you will see on TV (which you can find out at the MSF college football TV schedule).  Thus, I will not be giving picks on North Texas vs. some other cream puff.

We have a theme this week, so let’s begin.

Game #1 I love; actually, I love all four of the gems I’m going to give you, but I like this game the most.

Follow the link or click the image below to get great deals on college football tickets at StubHub.
college football Point Spreads, Odds, Line Analysis: Boise State-Oregon, Illinois-Missouri, Oklahoma State-Georgia, Alabama-Virginia Tech

Boise St vs. Oregon

  • Boise State-Oregon Point Spread: Boise State -3.5
  • Boise State -Oregon Over-Under: 64

The oddsmakers have Boise State favored in this game by 3.5 with the over-under at a whopping 64. I don’t believe either team will have many stops in this game and I expect the over to be in full effect. With that being said, Boise State is at home, it’s the first BIG game of the NCAA year, and oh by the way it’s on a Thursday night.

Folks, for starters, Boise State does not lose many home games, I can probably count on one hand how many losses they have had at home over the past five years. Boise State also has the experience, with 90% of their players having started a game last year. Oregon can’t match that experience, which is HUGE in the beginning of the season.

What does this game mean for Boise State? Well, if they win tomorrow night you might as well pencil them in to BCS Bowl, and maybe even a national championship. For Oregon, this game means a lot, but nowhere near what it means to the Broncos. Oregon did not have this game circled on their schedule as they had Cal, Oregon State, and USC.

Go with the Boise State and give the points.

Georgia at Oklahoma State

  • Georgia-Oklahoma State Point Spread: Oklahoma State -5

Game No. 2 is Georgia at Oklahoma State. Will Georgia be able to stop the high powered offense of the Cowboys? Oklahoma State has some key players like Zac Robinson and Dez Bryant, who just so happens to be my projected No. 1 wide receiver in the country.

Georgia, on the other hand, has some players, but when the game is close who are they going to turn to? No Matthew Stafford, and no Knowshon Moreno.

Like the previous game, this game means a lot to Oklahoma State. This will be on Saturday night, on ABC, and the country will be watching. Oklahoma State has added seats for this year, so this will be the largest amount of fans to attend an Oklahoma State football game.

Georgia, well they need to worry about the SEC, so this game again means a lot but nowhere near what it means to the Cowboys. Oh and by the way, when was the last time Georgia traveled outside of their time zone?

Give the 5 and count your cash.

Missouri at Illinois

  • Illinois-Missouri point spread: Illinois -7

Game No. 3 has Illinois giving seven to Mizzou. I will keep this one quick, short, and to the point.

Mizzou lost everyone, Illinois has not. Gone for the Tigers are Chase Daniels, Jeremy Maclin, and Chase Coffman. Mizzou had a great run, but they don’t reload like the top teams in the country do.

Illinois, on the other hand, returns quarterback Juice Williams. He had a great year last year, but still flew under the radar. He will be throwing the rock all day to up-and-coming stud Arrelious Benn. This is a home game for the fighting Illini and they have returning starters.

Give the points as Mizzou can’t stay up with the Illini like Ron Zook can stay up on his skis.

Virginia Tech vs Alabama

  • Alabama-Virginia Tech point spread: Alabama -6.5

Game No. 4 is Virginia Tech vs. Alabama. The line in this game is 6.5. When I first saw this I almost jumped out of my chair. My first thought was there wasn’t going to be 6.5 points scored the whole game, not that I am advocating the under over in this game, but it just seems like a lot to give Virginia Tech, team with more firepower than the Crimson Tide.

Alabama over it’s past two games has been destroyed, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Nick Saban is sweating tonight thinking about the game on Saturday. I like Tyrod Taylor, and I think he is a playmaker, something Alabama doesn’t have many of on the offensive side of the ball.

Take the Hookies and take the points.


Keep your eye out for Rich’s next column here at MSF, and you can also follow his blog at http://www.nflandcollegefootball.com/.

* – Ron Zook skiing photo credit: Deadspin


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