Is Scott Skiles the Right Choice to Lead the Orlando Magic Rebuild?

The Orlando Magic have been infusing their roster with young blood for a couple of seasons now, but an old face may be on the brink of returning to try to restore glory. 

According to longtime hoops writer Peter Vecsey, the Magic are closing in on an agreement to hire former Magic point guard Scott Skiles as the team's next head coach: 

Skiles—who was a Magic floor general from 1989 to 1994—last coached the Milwaukee Bucks before getting canned 32 games into the 2012-13 season. Prior to his stay in Wisconsin, Skiles coached the Phoenix Suns for three years (1999-2002) and the Chicago Bulls for four and change (2003-2007). 

If the Magic are targeting gradual improvement—particularly on defense—Skiles makes sense. He proved throughout stints with the Suns and Bulls that playoff qualification is possible in the first few years of a new gig.

"Magic executives likely want someone who has a proven track record as an NBA head coach and a proven resume of turning young players into a more cohesive team," the Orlando Sentinel's Josh Robbins wrote. "All other things equal, the Magic likely want to hire someone who would generate excitement among the team's fanbase."

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And considering the Magic have missed the postseason three years straight, a return to riches can't come soon enough. However, this is a big-picture decision and one Orlando needs to make by balancing short-term hopes with long-term goals. 

Skiles is a proven winner, and we know that based on his extensive track record. 

In 13 seasons as a head coach, Skiles compiled a 443-433 regular-season record (.506 winning percentage) while going 18-24 (.429) in playoff appearances. More importantly, he displayed the ability to generate improvement in short windows. 

Upon joining the Suns, Skiles led Phoenix to the playoffs in each of his first two seasons with the franchise, boosting its win total from 40 in 1999-2000 to 51 the following year. The same trend held true during the inaugural stages of his time with the Bulls and Bucks. 

Although the Bulls won 19 games during the 2003-04 season, Skiles helped Chicago reach the playoffs in each of the next three years while topping 41 wins during every campaign. Milwaukee experienced a similar jolt, winning 34 games during Skiles' first season before jumping to 46 and a postseason berth in 2010. 

That said, it's what happened after those honeymoon periods that should give the Magic pause. 

Skiles has displayed a tendency to wear out his welcome, evidenced by truncated stays at each stop. As the following chart indicates, there have been noticeable spikes in the win column that precipitous declines and swift exits have quickly followed. 

He's also never been renowned for his innovation on offense, as his hard-nosed teams have tended to suffocate opponents with discipline and defense. In seven of his 13 seasons, Skiles has touted a defense that ranked among the top 10 in defensive efficiency. On six of those seven occasions, the defense graded out among the top four. 

And while Orlando needs significant help on defense, the offense has stagnated to an alarming degree each of the past three seasons. Since 2012, the team has posted offensive ratings of 101.6, 101.7 and 101.6. Overall, those marks ranked 27th, 29th and 24th, respectively. 

Not great.

There's little doubt Skiles can come in and craft the defense into a unit that ranks among the league's top half, but a young team replete with weapons such as Nikola Vucevic, Elfrid Payton, Aaron Gordon, Channing Frye and Evan Fournier has untapped potential that it needs to maximize on offense.

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"Whether he is the best guy to develop that young talent is up for debate—that's not his known skill set and his hard-driving style tends to burn players out," Pro Basketball Talk's Kurt Helin wrote. "Plus in Milwaukee a few years back he did not have a good relationship with Magic restricted free agent Tobias Harris (who blossomed after being moved)."

With Skiles, it's possible that group never reaches its full potential. During his previous 13 seasons, Skiles has been able to produce an offense above the league average exactly once. It was with the Bucks during the 2011-12 season, and they ranked 13th in offensive rating (105.5).  

Ultimately, that's the crux of the problem with pegging Skiles as the next head coach. 

While he checks all the organization's boxes in terms of his profile as a known commodity who can temporarily help uplift the franchise, Orlando needs a sustainable solution. 

A retread like Skiles can definitely provide short-term improvement, but in the end, it feels like there's a capped ceiling that's incapable of being vaulted. A playoff berth or two could appease the fanbase, but the Magic don't want to be in the business of occupying the seventh and eighth seeds while teetering on the brink of basketball purgatory. 

However, the franchise is understandably wary of appointing an unproven commodity after letting Jacque Vaughn try and fail to dip his feet into playoff waters for two-and-a-half seasons. So in that context, the safe play makes plenty of sense. 

Subscribing to a more conservative theory can help the Magic make inroads, but their potential for upward mobility stands to be restricted by a strategy that strays from the boom-or-bust of the unknown. 

All statistics are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless noted otherwise. 

Alec Nathan covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @AlecBNathan.