Belmont Stakes 2015: Analyzing Latest Odds and Top Threats to American Pharoah
American Pharoah is less than two weeks away from his shot at history at the 2015 Belmont Stakes, but both history and a fresh crop of contenders are working against him.
Completing the trifecta of the Triple Crown has eluded the sport over the last 37 years, and more than a dozen horses have gotten to the point where American Pharoah now stands. Winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes in succession is one thing, but the 1 1/2-mile marathon at Belmont Park has doomed the 13 horses that have entered the track since Affirmed in 1978 hoping to end the drought.
Throw a handful of dangerous horses who skipped the Preakness to be ready to go June 6, and American Pharoah's road to glory gets even tougher. That hasn't usurped him from being a sizable favorite, but don't sleep on these three horses that could spoil the party.
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2015 Belmont Stakes Odds
| American Pharoah | 1-1 |
| Frosted | 5-1 |
| Materiality | 15-2 |
| Mubtaahij | 14-1 |
| Carpe Diem | 16-1 |
| Madefromlucky | 22-1 |
| Keen Ice | 25-1 |
| Divining Rod | 25-1 |
| Tale of Verve | 28-1 |
| War Story | 33-1 |
| Conquest Curlinate | 33-1 |
| Frammento | 50-1 |
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark, last updated May 22
Top Threats to American Pharoah
Frosted
On the heels of a strong outing at Churchill Downs and a very valuable month of rest time, Frosted looks to be separating himself as the top contender to American Pharoah at Belmont.
While the trio of American Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund stole the show at the Kentucky Derby, Frosted wasn't far behind in fourth place. It took a photo finish to decide whether he or Dortmund took third place.
That came after a win at the Grade 1 Wood Memorial in March, and top-two finishes in six of Frosted's eight career races have him riding high on momentum even after sitting out at Pimlico. For that reason and many others, Frosted is getting plenty of attention as the race's official Twitter noted:
If Belmont unfolds anything like the action did at Churchill Downs, you can bet on Frosted to be right with American Pharoah down the stretch. Considering he was right there at the Derby and will have an extra 1/4 mile to work with this time around, Frosted could have just enough time to make a late run to victory.
Materiality
Like Frosted, Materiality has a strong performance from Churchill Downs to rely upon. But his overall track record prior to that indicates he—not American Pharoah—might be worthy of the favorite status.
Before descending upon the Kentucky Derby, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt had taken victory in each of his three career races in 2015. His most recent victory came in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, which happened in convincing fashion.
Daily Racing Form's David Grening was on hand to judge Materiality's training, and came away awfully impressed:
"Materiality, who skipped the Preakness after running a troubled sixth in the Kentucky Derby, solidified his status to me as the major threat to American Pharoah with a terrific five-furlong work in 59.87 seconds (on my watch), with a final quarter of 22.77 while working outside of Stanford, who did stay with him throughout the work.
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If it turns out that American Pharoah doesn't have the legs to make the late run to victory, expect Materiality to be right in the thick of things. He proved with a sixth-place finish at the Kentucky Derby that he's capable of contending with the top horses, but Materiality will need to take another step to be worthy of victory at Belmont.
Carpe Diem
When Pletcher pulled all four of his potential horses from the Preakness, it opened up the opportunity for any of them to be fresher and more dangerous at Belmont. Should that occur, Carpe Diem might be the one to get it done.
Although Carpe Diem wasn't able to do that at Churchill Downs with a 10th-place finish, results at the Kentucky Derby can be misleading. That was the case for Carpe Diem, who got jammed in with the middle of the pack and didn't have the space to break free down the stretch.
That shouldn't be the case at the Belmont Stakes, with a more exclusive field and more than a month of rest under his belt. Depending on where he lands in the draw, Carpe Diem should have more room to utilize the speed that made him so dominant prior to the Triple Crown season.
Considering the Derby was the only one of Carpe Diem's six career races in which he finished outside of the top two, Belmont could be the stage that allows him to get back to that point.
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