Free NFL Pick: Miami Dolphins vs. New Orleans Saints Odds: September 3rd 2009

Miami Dolphins vs. New Orleans Saints
Free NFL pick: Miami Dolphins +3 NFL odds (September 3rd 2009)
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Each week of the preseason is unique and Week 4 is no exception. Some teams still want to accomplish something and others have already achieved their goals. I believe that the Saints fall into the latter category. With a 3-0 record and having outscored opponents by a 100-28 margin, they’ve arguably been the most impressive team in the preseason. While New Orleans’ perfect record has helped give us some added line value with the Dolphins, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the Saints will win this week’s game vs. Miami.

Looking back to last preseason and we find that the Saints entered Week 4 with a 2-1 record and off a double-digit victory. Their Week 4 game came against these same Dolphins and was also played here at New Orleans. What happened? The Saints managed less than 99 yards of offense and lost outright by a score of 14-10. Including that result, the Saints are just 9-21 ATS (12-18 SU) their last 30 preseason home games.

Like the Saints, the Dolphins have gone 3-0 so far. They’ve just done so a lot more “quietly.” Looking back a bit further and we find the Dolphins at 7-3 ATS their last 10 preseason games, including 4-1 ATS on the road. Getting a field goal to work with, I feel that “taking the points” will prove to be the way to go. Consider Miami.