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College Football Power Rankings: Where Does Your Team Stand Week One?
September 1, 2009
WhatIfSports simulated every possible matchup in the Division I Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) 100 times, and used the winning percentages from those 700,000+ games to evaluate all teams to come up with the best possible ranking of how every team compares to every other team. The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008 and then makes modifications for 2009 based on returning starters (who, where, and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.
Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage
(everyone plays everyone 100 times)
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PS/G | PA/G | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Florida Gators | - | 99.2 | 54.1 | 5.5 |
| 2. | Texas Longhorns | - | 98.3 | 50.4 | 7.8 |
| 3. | Oklahoma Sooners | - | 97.2 | 50.4 | 10.4 |
| 4. | USC Trojans | - | 96.9 | 48.9 | 8.3 |
| 5. | Alabama Crimson Tide | - | 93.4 | 36.4 | 6.5 |
| 6. | Oklahoma State Cowboys | - | 93.1 | 48.5 | 17.3 |
| 7. | LSU Tigers | +1 | 90.3 | 40.1 | 12.2 |
| 8. | Mississippi Rebels | -1 | 89.8 | 40.9 | 13.6 |
| 9. | Ohio State Buckeyes | - | 87.4 | 32.1 | 9.6 |
| 10. | California Golden Bears | - | 85.9 | 33.5 | 10.7 |
| 11. | Penn State Nittany Lions | +1 | 85.2 | 32.1 | 12.3 |
| 12. | West Virginia Mountaineers | -1 | 84.8 | 33.6 | 11.9 |
| 13. | Georgia Bulldogs | +1 | 81.9 | 32.6 | 14.9 |
| 14. | Iowa Hawkeyes | +2 | 81.7 | 29.6 | 12.4 |
| 15. | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | - | 81.1 | 33.7 | 13.8 |
| 16. | Florida State Seminoles | +3 | 79.2 | 30.4 | 14.0 |
| 17. | TCU Horned Frogs | - | 79.1 | 27.9 | 12.3 |
| 18. | Virginia Tech Hokies | -5 | 78.8 | 27.2 | 11.4 |
| 19. | Illinois Fighting Illini | -1 | 78.5 | 33.1 | 17.6 |
| 20. | Utah Utes | +2 | 77.3 | 27.5 | 13.6 |
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PS/G | PA/G | |
| 21. | Boise State Broncos | +2 | 77.3 | 30.7 | 17.0 |
| 22. | Houston Cougars | -1 | 76.4 | 36.8 | 22.1 |
| 23. | Oregon Ducks | -3 | 76.3 | 30.8 | 16.3 |
| 24. | Brigham Young Cougars | - | 74.6 | 31.4 | 18.8 |
| 25. | Kansas Jayhawks | - | 73.9 | 33.1 | 19.8 |
| 26. | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | - | 73.8 | 26.4 | 15.3 |
| 27. | Baylor Bears | - | 72.9 | 31.3 | 19.5 |
| 28. | Texas Tech Red Raiders | +1 | 71.8 | 32.0 | 20.6 |
| 29. | Nebraska Cornhuskers | +1 | 71.7 | 29.4 | 18.4 |
| 30. | Rutgers Scarlet Knights | +8 | 71.7 | 27.6 | 17.5 |
| 31. | Clemson Tigers | +2 | 71.3 | 22.2 | 12.9 |
| 32. | Tennessee Volunteers | -4 | 70.8 | 23.2 | 13.6 |
| 33. | North Carolina Tar Heels | -2 | 70.5 | 22.0 | 12.9 |
| 34. | Pittsburgh Panthers | +1 | 68.9 | 23.4 | 14.8 |
| 35. | Nevada Wolf Pack | -1 | 68.1 | 32.3 | 22.3 |
| 36. | Missouri Tigers | +5 | 68.0 | 30.4 | 21.2 |
| 37. | Arizona Wildcats | -5 | 67.8 | 26.2 | 17.2 |
| 38. | Oregon State Beavers | -2 | 67.5 | 26.9 | 17.8 |
| 39. | Southern Miss Golden Eagles | - | 67.2 | 28.3 | 18.8 |
| 40. | South Florida Bulls | - | 66.0 | 23.8 | 16.9 |
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PS/G | PA/G | |
| 41. | Michigan State Spartans | +3 | 65.1 | 19.0 | 13.8 |
| 42. | Wisconsin Badgers | - | 65.1 | 27.1 | 19.5 |
| 43. | Miami (FL) Hurricanes | -6 | 63.8 | 19.9 | 14.5 |
| 44. | Air Force Falcons | -1 | 63.1 | 26.6 | 21.0 |
| 45. | East Carolina Pirates | - | 63.0 | 21.0 | 16.0 |
| 46. | Tulsa Golden Hurricane | +1 | 60.2 | 28.3 | 23.5 |
| 47. | Cincinnati Bearcats | -1 | 59.6 | 26.1 | 22.0 |
| 48. | Minnesota Golden Gophers | - | 59.1 | 21.8 | 18.1 |
| 49. | Stanford Cardinal | - | 56.8 | 26.1 | 21.7 |
| 50. | Arkansas Razorbacks | - | 55.9 | 24.8 | 22.3 |
| 51. | North Carolina State Wolfpack | +1 | 55.6 | 21.3 | 19.4 |
| 52. | Navy Midshipmen | +1 | 55.6 | 23.0 | 21.3 |
| 53. | Maryland Terrapins | -2 | 55.0 | 22.2 | 20.4 |
| 54. | Western Michigan Broncos | +5 | 52.3 | 23.8 | 23.8 |
| 55. | Vanderbilt Commodores | -1 | 52.1 | 16.2 | 16.7 |
| 56. | Arkansas State Red Wolves | +2 | 51.5 | 20.8 | 21.5 |
| 57. | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | +3 | 51.1 | 17.7 | 18.4 |
| 58. | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | -1 | 51.1 | 21.2 | 20.8 |
| 59. | Arizona State Sun Devils | -3 | 50.7 | 18.9 | 19.1 |
| 60. | Connecticut Huskies | -5 | 49.7 | 16.3 | 17.2 |
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PS/G | PA/G | |
| 61. | Troy Trojans | +1 | 47.8 | 20.3 | 22.2 |
| 62. | Central Michigan Chippewas | -1 | 47.4 | 20.5 | 22.8 |
| 63. | Northwestern Wildcats | - | 45.8 | 14.6 | 18.3 |
| 64. | Michigan Wolverines | +1 | 45.0 | 16.9 | 20.4 |
| 65. | Louisville Cardinals | -1 | 44.1 | 20.7 | 24.4 |
| 66. | Fresno State Bulldogs | +1 | 43.2 | 17.9 | 22.6 |
| 67. | South Carolina Gamecocks | -1 | 41.7 | 14.1 | 19.4 |
| 68. | Colorado State Rams | +2 | 41.2 | 19.3 | 25.2 |
| 69. | Rice Owls | -1 | 40.7 | 20.3 | 26.8 |
| 70. | UTEP Miners | +1 | 38.8 | 21.3 | 28.8 |
| 71. | UCLA Bruins | +2 | 38.0 | 14.6 | 21.5 |
| 72. | Florida International Golden Panthers | - | 37.9 | 15.5 | 23.3 |
| 73. | Boston College Eagles | +6 | 36.6 | 13.9 | 21.3 |
| 74. | UNLV Rebels | -5 | 36.3 | 18.5 | 26.3 |
| 75. | Bowling Green Falcons | -1 | 35.6 | 16.6 | 25.2 |
| 76. | Duke Blue Devils | - | 35.2 | 16.0 | 24.3 |
| 77. | UAB Blazers | - | 33.8 | 20.3 | 30.0 |
| 78. | Ball State Cardinals | - | 33.7 | 16.4 | 26.0 |
| 79. | Marshall Thundering Herd | -4 | 33.3 | 15.5 | 25.0 |
| 80. | Ohio Bobcats | +2 | 33.2 | 14.6 | 24.3 |
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PS/G | PA/G | |
| 81. | Mississippi State Bulldogs | - | 32.9 | 13.3 | 23.6 |
| 82. | Auburn Tigers | -2 | 32.4 | 13.8 | 24.3 |
| 83. | Colorado Buffaloes | +1 | 32.3 | 14.5 | 25.0 |
| 84. | Virginia Cavaliers | -1 | 31.2 | 12.5 | 22.6 |
| 85. | Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | +3 | 30.7 | 16.2 | 27.3 |
| 86. | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | -1 | 30.6 | 12.9 | 24.1 |
| 87. | San Jose State Spartans | -1 | 29.6 | 11.4 | 22.4 |
| 88. | Florida Atlantic Owls | -1 | 28.4 | 16.5 | 29.1 |
| 89. | Akron Zips | +4 | 28.3 | 17.3 | 30.2 |
| 90. | Memphis Tigers | - | 27.8 | 15.1 | 28.0 |
| 91. | New Mexico Lobos | - | 27.7 | 14.4 | 27.0 |
| 92. | Purdue Boilermakers | -3 | 27.5 | 10.5 | 22.8 |
| 93. | Kentucky Wildcats | -1 | 26.0 | 9.8 | 22.6 |
| 94. | Kansas State Wildcats | +4 | 25.9 | 12.6 | 25.6 |
| 95. | Washington Huskies | +4 | 25.7 | 13.3 | 28.1 |
| 96. | Utah State Aggies | +4 | 25.6 | 14.2 | 28.0 |
| 97. | Temple Owls | +7 | 25.4 | 11.2 | 25.3 |
| 98. | Kent State Golden Flashes | -1 | 25.4 | 14.8 | 30.2 |
| 99. | Toledo Rockets | -4 | 25.2 | 13.6 | 28.0 |
| 100. | Syracuse Orange | +1 | 24.5 | 12.2 | 27.0 |
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PS/G | PA/G | |
| 101. | Buffalo Bulls | -5 | 23.9 | 11.2 | 26.1 |
| 102. | Northern Illinois Huskies | +1 | 23.6 | 13.4 | 28.8 |
| 103. | Iowa State Cyclones | -1 | 23.4 | 17.1 | 32.6 |
| 104. | Wyoming Cowboys | -10 | 23.2 | 10.9 | 25.2 |
| 105. | Indiana Hoosiers | - | 22.9 | 12.6 | 27.6 |
| 106. | Hawaii Warriors | - | 22.9 | 15.8 | 31.5 |
| 107. | San Diego State Aztecs | +1 | 22.5 | 13.6 | 29.5 |
| 108. | UCF Knights | -1 | 22.4 | 10.0 | 25.2 |
| 109. | Texas A&M Aggies | - | 22.0 | 14.6 | 30.1 |
| 110. | Army Black Knights | +1 | 19.1 | 9.8 | 27.1 |
| 111. | Southern Methodist Mustangs | -1 | 18.2 | 12.9 | 30.5 |
| 112. | New Mexico State Aggies | +1 | 17.4 | 10.6 | 30.7 |
| 113. | Tulane Green Wave | -1 | 17.2 | 11.8 | 30.7 |
| 114. | Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks | - | 15.5 | 10.5 | 31.0 |
| 115. | Eastern Michigan Eagles | - | 12.2 | 9.4 | 32.1 |
| 116. | North Texas Mean Green | - | 11.9 | 9.9 | 33.1 |
| 117. | Washington State Cougars | - | 7.8 | 6.7 | 33.4 |
| 118. | Idaho Vandals | - | 7.6 | 7.7 | 35.7 |
| 119. | Miami (OH) RedHawks | +1 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 36.3 |
| 120. | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | -1 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 35.6 |
Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!
