Rivalry Week!: We Have All of College Football's Week 13 Projections

WhatIfSports.com will preview a week of the college football season each day for 15 days, including projected scores from 10,000 simulations for all FBS games and updated standings as of that week.

Once we have reached the end of the season, we will present our projected bowl match-ups with results.

Rosters and depth charts are up to date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2009. A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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For more information on how we generate the results and the definitions of Absolute and Expected Records, click here.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 10,000 times. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game.

The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1 percent win is different than a 99 percent win).

Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we don't expect any to do so.

Also, since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage.

We are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008. Once this step is complete, we make our modifications for 2009 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by the conference of the home team and then winning percentage of the home team, with the score reading the visitors first followed by the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95 percent chance of winning, that means that it won at 95 percent or more of the 10,000 simulations.

Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. James Madison vs. Maryland), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 13 (11/28/09).

Game of the Week: No. 6 Oklahoma State 34 at No. 3 Oklahoma 45

With Texas in the mix, neither of these top ten ranked teams is likely to represent the Big 12 South in the conference championship, but Bedlam is still destined to be a fun shootout with national implications.

The Big 12 will probably get two teams into BCS bowls again this season. Texas is one. The other should come from this game.

Oklahoma is at home and has the superior defense. And while "defense" may not be an appropriate term for any team in the Big 12, it should be enough to make the difference in this game.

The Sooners will make one or two more stops than the Cowboys (meaning they probably make one or two stops period), prevailing 78.7 percent of the time and by an average score of 45-34.

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
Boston College @ Maryland	79.1	10-23
Georgia @ Georgia Tech	51.2	21-25
North Carolina @ North Carolina State	28.2	19-13
Wake Forest @ Duke	25.9	18-13
Virginia Tech @ Virginia	5.0	33-9
Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma	78.7	34-45
Missouri @ Kansas	64.5	28-35
Texas Tech @ Baylor	50.5	29-32
Nebraska @ Colorado	5.3	32-13
Texas @ Texas A&M	5.0	58-9
Syracuse @ Connecticut	87	7-22
Pittsburgh @ West Virginia	82.7	11-27
Miami (FL) @ South Florida	54.2	15-19
Illinois @ Cincinnati	18.6	33-25
Rutgers @ Louisville	15.6	30-18
Rice @ Houston	93.4	21-44
Memphis @ Tulsa	87.4	16-36
UCF @ UAB	71.4	14-24
Marshall @ UTEP	59.1	21-26
Tulane @ Southern Methodist	51.8	18-21
Southern Miss @ East Carolina	39.5	20-19
Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan	85.0	13-28
Eastern Michigan @ Akron	80.1	13-27
Ball State @ Western Michigan	77.4	18-31
Toledo @ Bowling Green	64.1	16-23
Temple @ Ohio	59.8	13-18
Buffalo @ Kent State	45.5	19-20
New Mexico @ TCU	95.0	8-34
San Diego State @ UNLV	78.7	17-28
Wyoming @ Colorado State	74.1	12-23
Utah @ Brigham Young	54.5	22-25
UCLA @ USC	95.0	6-54
Washington State @ Washington	86.0	7-24
Arizona @ Arizona State	29.6	21-15
Notre Dame @ Stanford	25.6	26-19
Arkansas @ LSU	95.0	14-42
Florida State @ Florida	95.0	7-47
Clemson @ South Carolina	14.3	18-8
Alabama @ Auburn	5.0	40-8
Mississippi @ Mississippi State	5.0	43-9
Tennessee @ Kentucky	5.0	23-9
North Texas @ Arkansas State	95.0	8-33
Western Kentucky @ Florida Atlantic	94.0	8-29
Middle Tennessee @ Louisiana-Monroe	27.9	20-14
Troy @ Louisiana-Lafayette	24.3	25-18
New Mexico State @ San Jose State	71.1	10-18
Nevada @ Boise State	65.4	25-33
Utah State @ Idaho	18.6	24-14
Navy @ Hawaii	14.3	32-19

Week 13 Standings

Conference	Team	Abs Record	Exp Record
Atlantic Coast	Virginia Tech	11 - 1	10 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Georgia Tech	10 - 2	9 - 3
Atlantic Coast	Florida State	11 - 1	8 - 4
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina	9 - 3	8 - 4
Atlantic Coast	Clemson	8 - 4	8 - 4
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina State	7 - 5	6 - 6
Atlantic Coast	Miami (FL)	6 - 6	7 - 5
Atlantic Coast	Maryland	6 - 6	6 - 6
Atlantic Coast	Wake Forest	3 - 9	5 - 7
Atlantic Coast	Duke	4 - 8	4 - 8
Atlantic Coast	Boston College	3 - 9	4 - 8
Atlantic Coast	Virginia	2 - 10	3 - 9
Big 12	Texas	12 - 0	11 - 1
Big 12	Oklahoma	11 - 1	11 - 1
Big 12	Oklahoma State	10 - 2	10 - 2
Big 12	Kansas	9 - 3	8 - 4
Big 12	Nebraska	6 - 6	8 - 4
Big 12	Baylor	9 - 3	7 - 5
Big 12	Texas Tech	7 - 5	7 - 5
Big 12	Missouri	6 - 6	7 - 5
Big 12	Colorado	5 - 7	4 - 8
Big 12	Kansas State	4 - 8	4 - 8
Big 12	Iowa State	2 - 10	3 - 9
Big 12	Texas A&M	1 - 11	3 - 9
Big East	West Virginia	11 - 0	10 - 1
Big East	Rutgers	11 - 0	9 - 2
Big East	Pittsburgh	8 - 3	8 - 3
Big East	South Florida	7 - 4	7 - 4
Big East	Cincinnati	6 - 5	6 - 5
Big East	Connecticut	4 - 7	5 - 6
Big East	Louisville	3 - 9	4 - 8
Big East	Syracuse	1 - 11	2 - 10
Big Ten	Ohio State	11 - 1	10 - 2
Big Ten	Penn State	11 - 1	10 - 2
Big Ten	Iowa	10 - 2	10 - 2
Big Ten	Illinois	9 - 2	9 - 2
Big Ten	Wisconsin	9 - 2	8 - 3
Big Ten	Michigan State	7 - 5	7 - 5
Big Ten	Northwestern	6 - 6	6 - 6
Big Ten	Michigan	4 - 8	5 - 7
Big Ten	Minnesota	4 - 8	5 - 7
Big Ten	Purdue	3 - 9	3 - 9
Big Ten	Indiana	1 - 11	3 - 9
Conference USA	Houston	11 - 1	10 - 2
Conference USA	Southern Miss	10 - 2	9 - 3
Conference USA	East Carolina	8 - 4	8 - 4
Conference USA	Tulsa	7 - 5	7 - 5
Conference USA	UTEP	7 - 5	6 - 6
Conference USA	Marshall	6 - 6	5 - 7
Conference USA	Rice	5 - 7	5 - 7
Conference USA	UAB	5 - 7	5 - 7
Conference USA	Memphis	2 - 10	4 - 8
Conference USA	Southern Methodist	3 - 9	3 - 9
Conference USA	UCF	2 - 10	3 - 9
Conference USA	Tulane	1 - 11	3 - 9
Independents (FBS)	Notre Dame	11 - 1	9 - 3
Independents (FBS)	Navy	8 - 4	7 - 5
Independents (FBS)	Army	4 - 7	4 - 7
Independents (FBS)	Western Kentucky	0 - 11	1 - 10
Mid-American	Western Michigan	11 - 1	9 - 3
Mid-American	Central Michigan	9 - 3	8 - 4
Mid-American	Ohio	9 - 3	7 - 5
Mid-American	Ball State	8 - 4	7 - 5
Mid-American	Akron	7 - 5	6 - 6
Mid-American	Bowling Green	8 - 4	6 - 6
Mid-American	Kent State	5 - 7	6 - 6
Mid-American	Northern Illinois	5 - 7	6 - 6
Mid-American	Temple	4 - 8	6 - 6
Mid-American	Buffalo	5 - 7	5 - 7
Mid-American	Toledo	4 - 8	5 - 7
Mid-American	Eastern Michigan	0 - 12	2 - 10
Mid-American	Miami (OH)	0 - 12	1 - 11
Mountain West	TCU	12 - 0	10 - 2
Mountain West	Utah	9 - 3	10 - 2
Mountain West	Brigham Young	9 - 3	9 - 3
Mountain West	Air Force	9 - 3	8 - 4
Mountain West	Colorado State	6 - 6	6 - 6
Mountain West	UNLV	6 - 6	5 - 7
Mountain West	San Diego State	3 - 9	4 - 8
Mountain West	New Mexico	3 - 9	3 - 9
Mountain West	Wyoming	3 - 9	3 - 9
Pacific-10	USC	11 - 0	10 - 1
Pacific-10	California	10 - 1	9 - 2
Pacific-10	Oregon State	9 - 2	8 - 3
Pacific-10	Oregon	9 - 2	8 - 3
Pacific-10	Arizona	7 - 4	7 - 4
Pacific-10	Stanford	6 - 6	6 - 6
Pacific-10	Arizona State	5 - 7	6 - 6
Pacific-10	UCLA	4 - 8	4 - 8
Pacific-10	Washington	2 - 9	3 - 8
Pacific-10	Washington State	0 - 12	1 - 11
Southeastern	Alabama	12 - 0	11 - 1
Southeastern	Florida	12 - 0	11 - 1
Southeastern	Mississippi	11 - 1	10 - 2
Southeastern	LSU	9 - 3	9 - 3
Southeastern	Georgia	8 - 4	8 - 4
Southeastern	Tennessee	8 - 4	8 - 4
Southeastern	Arkansas	7 - 5	6 - 6
Southeastern	Vanderbilt	6 - 6	5 - 7
Southeastern	Kentucky	3 - 9	4 - 8
Southeastern	South Carolina	3 - 9	4 - 8
Southeastern	Auburn	3 - 9	3 - 9
Southeastern	Mississippi State	2 - 10	3 - 9
Sun Belt	Troy	9 - 3	8 - 4
Sun Belt	Arkansas State	9 - 2	7 - 4
Sun Belt	Middle Tennessee	8 - 5	7 - 6
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Lafayette	6 - 6	6 - 6
Sun Belt	Florida International	6 - 5	5 - 6
Sun Belt	Florida Atlantic	4 - 7	5 - 6
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Monroe	3 - 9	4 - 8
Sun Belt	North Texas	1 - 12	3 - 10
Western Athletic	Boise State	11 - 1	10 - 2
Western Athletic	Nevada	10 - 2	9 - 3
Western Athletic	Louisiana Tech	7 - 4	7 - 4
Western Athletic	Fresno State	6 - 5	6 - 5
Western Athletic	Utah State	6 - 6	5 - 7
Western Athletic	Hawaii	4 - 8	5 - 7
Western Athletic	San Jose State	4 - 7	4 - 7
Western Athletic	New Mexico State	2 - 10	4 - 8
Western Athletic	Idaho	0 - 12	1 - 11

A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at [e-mail]. Thanks!