Why Missing out on Champions League Will Not Be Fatal to Liverpool Transfer Plan
Liverpool seem mathematically and logistically unlikely to qualify for next season's Champions League through their Premier League exploits this term, but this doesn't have to prove fatal to their summer transfer plan.
The Reds are four points behind fourth-placed Manchester United with three games to go, but have difficult clashes with Chelsea, Crystal Palace and Stoke City to come.
TOP NEWS
Madrid Fines Players $590K 😲
'Mbappé Out' Petition Gaining Steam 😳
Star-Studded World Cup Ad 🤩
Manager Brendan Rodgers has all but given up hope on a top-four finish, with his words relayed by the Press Association (h/t This is Anfield) last month.
"We want to be in the Champions League, that is important and it is key for us, but it is highly unlikely this year. I wouldn't expect the others to slip up."
And, as he attests, this may impact on their transfer-market clout this summer: "Liverpool is a phenomenal club that players want to play for, but, of course, players want to play at the top level of the game and if you are not in the Champions League it makes it difficult for you."
But, still, missing out on the Champions League won't necessary scupper their transfer plans.
The State of Things
The way Liverpool's season has panned out, should a meltdown in the Kop be expected?
Measuring the state of things, in context with last season's near-success, several mitigating factors from this term and the fortunes of those around them in terms of the league table, it can be argued otherwise.
Liverpool's 2013/14 title challenge was largely considered a surprise.
The direct attacking football they played, led by the effervescent striking tandem of Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge, who scored 52 league goals between them, blew teams away, taking them by surprise and often finishing games off before half-time.
This season, however, the losses of both Suarez (through sale) and Sturridge (through injury) have made this impossible.
Rodgers attested to this following the Reds' 0-0 April draw away to West Bromwich Albion, as reported by Kristian Walsh of the Liverpool Echo:
"Taking 52 goals out of your team doesn't help you. The players that are playing showed terrific quality, but we just couldn't quite make the breakthrough.
[...]
We just don't score as many goals [this season], it's as simple as that. The players are giving the same effort, the same attitude, the skills we're transferring are the same. We had two players last year who played in our front three who, between them, got 50+ goals. And we don't have that.
So the players are giving absolutely everything like you seen today, some real good bits of play, some clever bits of invention around the box, it was just that final little piece.
"
Glancing at the current Premier League table, with Liverpool still in with a chance of a top-four finish despite their struggles, it is clear to see that with those goals, Rodgers' side would probably have clinched Champions League qualification long before this point.
They have scored 10 goals fewer than fourth-placed Manchester United, for example, having conceded just three more.
Rodgers putting in faith in Sturridge as his first-choice striker was perhaps a mistake, but it is difficult to legislate for a season's worth of injuries.
Of course, along with the losses of both Suarez and Sturridge, Liverpool's difficulty in finding that "final little piece" can also be attributed to Rodgers' own failings in the transfer market—the £16 million signing of the ill-fitting Mario Balotelli is a prime example.
But, despite the supporters' ire, Liverpool still aren't far from challenging.
This summer it will be made more difficult in building towards that if the Reds miss out of Champions League qualification, but it is still possible.
Liverpool's 'Project'
As Rodgers continued his appraisal of Liverpool's position in the transfer market were they not to qualify for next season's Champions League, the manager declared: "Most players want to be in the Champions League, but I think also that Liverpool is a great club.
"I said that before I came into the job, and it is been even more rubber-stamped now that I have been here for two-and-a-half-years."
What Rodgers is falsely clinging to, of course, is the notion that the prestige of Liverpool's illustrious history, as one of the most successful clubs of all time, is enough to tempt big-name signings to Merseyside.
This is wrong and will be more and more so as football becomes a purely financial game.
We saw this last season, when Alexis Sanchez chose Arsenal over Liverpool as he departed Barcelona. Rodgers believes, as reported by the London Evening Standard, that the Chilean's decision to join the Gunners was "about where the player and his family wanted to choose to live."
Liverpool cannot lean on their history because players no longer care—why choose the side that last won the league 25 years ago, when a club with more immediate prospects, higher financial incentives and attractive geographical advantages is your other option?
Instead, and both Rodgers and the club's owners Fenway Sports Group will be well aware of this, Liverpool need to convince players that they're building a successful model for the future.
This can work, as one of last summer's signings Divock Origi, who will join up with Rodgers' squad this summer after a season on loan with Ligue 1 side Lille, has attested to.
Origi told the club's official website last month about why chose to join the Reds:
"To see the players develop and play in a top league in such a young team, for me it's very exciting.
When you see how the coach and the staff work with the young players—how Sterling, for example, has learned over the years and how Ibe is now integrating with the team, it is very interesting. It is very nice to have seen that this season.
The manager is one of the reasons I came to Liverpool—he's someone who has proven he knows how to work with young players, knows how to develop young players and also lets them play.
"
The 20-year-old fell for Liverpool's vision, rather than their history.
This is what they must opt for in attempting to convince potential signings that a move to Merseyside is the right one.
Value in the Market?
Of course, this cannot be managed with a certain level of player—it would be difficult to imagine Rodgers persuading Angel Di Maria to choose Liverpool over the lucrative climbs of Old Trafford simply because they'll be nicer to him.
Therefore, this must be married with careful planning and scouring of the market, as there is still attainable value around.
Take PSV Eindhoven winger Memphis Depay, for example, who was credibly linked with a move to Liverpool by the Mirror's David Maddock at the end of April. This is a player who has scored 21 goals in 28 games this season but, in performing in the lesser-favoured Eredivisie, is still a reasonable target.
Elsewhere, Bayer Leverkusen forward Son Heung-Min, linked to the club courtesy of quotes from his agent via German publication Bild (h/t Simon Jones of MailOnline), is an 11-goal, 27-game 22-year-old who could be available to a club like the Reds if Leverkusen follow through with interest in Hoffenheim's Kevin Volland.
Even Inter Milan's highly rated midfielder Mateo Kovacic, tenuously rumoured to be interesting Rodgers by Spanish site Fichajes.net (h/t George Bellshaw of Metro), could be tempted to move on to an ambitious Anfield outfit due to Inter's current mid-table struggles.
There is value in the market—Liverpool just need to be sensible in finding it and move swiftly.
Maddock even asserts that Depay was impressed with Liverpool's "vision," suggesting that he could spurn the advances of United as a result.
In theory, this can work.
This is how Liverpool have always worked throughout Rodgers' tenure, even last season when they had qualified for the Champions League, as the manager explained with praise for the £10 million summer signing of Emre Can, as reported by James Pearce of the Liverpool Echo in February.
"I think £10 million will prove to be a bargain for Emre," he said. "That’s the nature of the model here. We look to bring in players who we can develop.
"Look at Daniel Sturridge. We bought him for £12 million. What would Daniel be worth now? Philippe Coutinho, £8 million, what’s his value? What would Raheem Sterling be worth?
"They come into a real coaching environment here and it’s my job to make them better players."
Of course, Liverpool being able to throw money at big-name, ready-made stars would benefit them in terms of short-term success. But if Rodgers is able to convince players such as Depay, Son and Kovacic that they can grow as part of a dominant group on Merseyside, then the club will be all the better for it.
So long as Liverpool are realistic, plan carefully and lower their expectations slightly, there's no reason why missing out on Champions League qualification this season will prove fatal in the transfer market.
As Rodgers says: "If we can regroup again, get some quality starters in for the summer, then we can go on another great adventure next season and hopefully get back in there."
Statistics via WhoScored.com.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
