Free MLB Pick: Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: August 30th 2009

Touthouse HandicappersAug 30, 2009

Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Free MLB Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (August 30th 2009)
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The San Francisco Giants will play host to the Colorado Rockies on Sunday afternoon for Game Three of their three-game weekend set leading the series 2-0 after winning 5 to 3 on Saturday. Our interest in this game is on the total, we know that 6 of 6 played in San Francisco in this series have fallen below the posted total including Saturday’s game which had a total of 8.5. Over the last three seasons this series has seen 27 of 47 go under the posted total and 8 of 13 this year overall. When these two teams have gotten together on the West Coast 15 of 21 games have fallen below the posted total including all five this season. Colorado will send Jason Hammel to the bump with his 6-4 record and an ERA of 3.04 on the road this season. Hammels is 4-0 under his last four versus teams from the NL West, 5-1-1 under as an underdog of -110 to -150 and 5-1-1 under following a quality start in his last outing. The Rockies are 14-6-1 under when playing in Game Three of a series, 19-7-2 under on the road facing a team with a home winning percentage of .600 or better and 16-5-2 under as an underdog in this price range. San Francisco will counter with Matt Cain who is 6-2 with an ERA of 2.28 at home. Cain is 6-0 under when starting in Game Three of a series, 10-2 under following a quality start in this last outing and 12-4 under when the total for the game is 7 to 8.5. San Francisco is ranked 2 in pitching with an ERA of 3.54 and opponents are batting .237 against them this season. Colorado is ranked 10 in pitching with an ERA of 4.21 with opponents batting .263 against them. Neither team is in the Top 10 in hitting with San Francisco ranked 20 with a batting average of .259 averaging 4.0 runs per game. Colorado is ranked 18 in hitting with a batting average of .259 averaging 5.0 runs per game. With the two pitchers starting for each team today we do not expect either team to reach their current average of runs scored. The Rockies are 13-3 under (+9.6) in road games versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season and the Giants are 13-4 under (+8.6) vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 this season. With solid fundamental, situational and technical support for the under we will play this game to fall below the posted total.