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Evaluating ESPN's Preseason Top 25 and Regular Season Predictions
August 30, 2009
Special thanks goes to Ryan Faller, whose top 25 of a similar nature inspired me to post mine written a few weeks ago on a personal blog site.
The students are back on campus, bars are full once again, and soon stadiums across the country, whether they hold 10,000 or 100,000, will be inundated with tailgaters on the outside, and screaming ticket holders on the inside. Streets will be closed, car flags will fly on the windows, and the sweet combination of the smell of all manner of tailgating fare and alcohol will grace the air. What an atmosphere!
At this time of year, every college town has promise. Every team starts undefeated. Every fan teems with optimism.
But whose optimism is unfounded? Is ESPN hyping up the wrong teams? Join me as I dive through ESPN's Preseason Top 25 teams, highlighting whether I think they are placed correctly (should be higher/lower), some upcoming big games for each, and their regular season record. Remember it's just my opinion. It's what makes college football so much fun to follow, right?
1. Florida
Right where they belong
The Gators are circling the calendars for: Tennessee (because of Lane Kiffin), @LSU, Georgia (@ Jacksonville), Florida State
Don't overlook: Troy (you laugh now...), @Kentucky, Arkansas
Prediction: 11-1 (@ LSU)
2. Texas
A couple of spots too high, but definitely top 5.
The Horns are circling the calendars for: Texas Tech (the one game that stopped them from reaching the conference championship), OU (obviously), @ Oklahoma State (twice the Pokes have led Texas at half only to have Texas come back. Will it happen again?)
Don't overlook: @ Wyoming (maybe the altitude gets to them), @Missouri (I have a hunch Missouri isn't as bad off as people think), Kansas (One thing about winning the Orange Bowl: it brings recruits for the next couple years)
Prediction: 10-2 (OU (yeah, I'm a homer with this one), @ Oklahoma State)
3. Oklahoma
A few spots too high, but definitely top 10.
The Sooners are circling the calendars for: BYU (in Arlington), @Miami, Texas (obviously), @Nebraska, Oklahoma State (Bedlam)
Don't overlook: @Kansas, @Texas Tech
Prediction: 9-3 (@Miami, @Nebraska, @Texas Tech)
4. Southern California
A few spots too high, but definitely top 10.
The Trojans are circling the calendars for: @Ohio State (and as a football fan, pray it's a better game than last year's blowout in L.A.), @California, @Oregon, and sure, @Notre Dame
Don't overlook: @Washington (you laugh, but Sarkasian coached for the Trojans last year), Stanford, Arizona
Prediction: 10-2 (@Ohio State, @Oregon (USC finally loses to a high-caliber conference foe))
5. Alabama
A few spots too high, but definitely top 10.
The Tide are circling their calendars for: Virginia Tech (@ Atlanta), @Ole Miss, LSU
Don't overlook: Arkansas, @Kentucky (they played the Tide tough in Tuscaloosa last year), @Auburn (no doubt Bama will be ready for the Iron Bowl, but Auburn will play their best against their hated rival)
Prediction: 9-3 (Virginia Tech, @Ole Miss, LSU)
(Again, the Tide's record was predicted before that Darrell Evans' injury.)
6. Ohio State
Based on predicted record, maybe a little low. Think this is a fair ranking for the Buckeyes as if they prove they are back to prominence they can move up, but they aren't too high in the rankings to start with.
The Buckeyes are circling their calendars for: USC, @Penn State, Iowa, @Michigan
Don't overlook: Illinois, Minnesota
Prediction: 11-1 (@Penn State)
7. Virginia Tech
About right, maybe a little low.
Update: They lost their starting RB for the season, but since injuries happen and I predicted their record before that, I'll stick to it. Don't be surprised if they lose more than two games now, particularly their matchup with Alabama.
The Hokies are circling their calendars for: Alabama (@ Atlanta), Nebraska, Miami, @Georgia Tech
Don't overlook: Marshall, Boston College, North Carolina, @East Carolina, @Maryland, NC State, @Virginia (that's the balanced ACC for ya)
Prediction: 10-2 (@Georgia Tech, @Maryland)
8. Penn State
A few spots too low.
The Nittany Lions are circling their calendars for: Iowa (trendy breakout pick for the Big Ten), Ohio State, @Michigan
Don't overlook: @Illinois, @Northwestern, @Michigan State
Prediction: 11-1 (@Illinois)
9. LSU
A few spots too low.
The Tigers are circling their calendars for: @Georgia, Florida, @Alabama, @Ole Miss
Don't overlook: Vanderbilt, Auburn, Arkansas
Prediction: 11-1 (@Ole Miss)
10. Ole Miss (Mississippi)
A few spots too low. Yep, I'm drinking the Rebel Kool-Aid.
The Rebels are circling their calendars for: Alabama, LSU
Don't overlook: @South Carolina, @Vanderbilt, Arkansas (The Nutt Bowl), @Mississippi State (The Egg Bowl)
Prediction: 11-1 (Arkansas)
11. Oklahoma State
Too high. Great offense, but suspect defense will prove costly even in the offense-heavy Big 12.
The Pokes are circling their calendars for: Georgia, Missouri, Texas, Texas Tech, @Oklahoma
Don't overlook: @Baylor, @Iowa State, Colorado
Prediction: 8-4 (Georgia, Missouri, Texas Tech, @Oklahoma)
12. California
About right. Maybe a bit too high as Cal tends to drop from this annual preseason top 15 ranking during conference play.
The Golden Bears are circling their calendars: @Minnesota, @Oregon, USC, Oregon State, @Stanford
Don't overlook: Maryland, @UCLA, Arizona
Prediction: 9-3 (@Minnesota, @Oregon, USC)
13. Georgia
Too high. Stafford and Moreno will be missed this season as they draw LSU along with the SEC East.
The Dawgs are circling their calendars for: @Oklahoma State, Arizona State, LSU, Florida, @Georgia Tech
Don't overlook: @Arkansas, @Tennessee, @Vanderbilt, Kentucky
Prediction: 8-4 (@Arkansas, LSU, Florida, @Georgia Tech)
14. Oregon
Too low. A top 10 team.
The Ducks are circling their calendars for: @Boise State, California, USC, Oregon State
Don't overlook: Utah, @UCLA, @Arizona
Prediction: 10-2 (@Arizona, Oregon State (The revenge of the Beavers from last year))
15. Georgia Tech
A bit low. See this team challenging for the ACC crown. Especially now that VT is without a proven RB.
The Yellow Jackets are circling their calendars for: Miami, @Florida State, Virginia Tech, Georgia
Don't overlook: Clemson, @Mississippi State (those cowbells are annoying), North Carolina, Wake Forest
Prediction: 9-3 (@Miami, North Carolina, @Florida State)
16. Boise State
Too low. See them around #12 or #13 due to scheduling.
The Broncos are circling their calendars for: Oregon, @Tulsa, Nevada
Don't overlook: @Fresno State, @Hawaii (it's so beautiful out there), @Louisiana Tech (ask MS State how that trip went...)
Prediction: 11-1 (Oregon)
17. TCU
Talented team, but a tough schedule lands them in the mid-range. Maybe a spot or two higher in the final poll.
The Frogs are circling their calendars for: @Virginia, @Clemson, @BYU, Utah
Don't overlook: SMU (rivals), UNLV, @Wyoming
Prediction: 9-3 (@Virginia, @Clemson, @BYU)
18. Utah
About right.
The Utes are circling their calendars for: @Oregon, @TCU, @BYU
Don't overlook: @San Jose State, Louisville, @UNLV, New Mexico
Prediction:9-3 (@Oregon, @TCU, @BYU)
19. Florida State
Too high. Not a horrible team, but not the 'Noles I grew up with.
The 'Noles are circling their calendars for: Miami, @BYU, South Florida, Georgia Tech, @Florida
Don't overlook: @Boston College, @North Carolina, NC State, @Clemson
Prediction: 7-5 (Miami, @BYU, @Boston College, @North Carolina, Florida)
20. North Carolina
About right.
The Heels are circling their calendars for: @UConn, East Carolina, @Georgia Tech,Florida State, @Virginia Tech, Miami
Don't overlook: @Boston College, @NC State
Prediction: 8-4 (East Carolina, @Virginia Tech, Miami, @NC State)
21. Iowa
A bit low. The Hawkeyes are on the rise.
The Hawkeyes are circling their calendars for: Arizona, @Penn State, Michigan, @Wisconsin, @Michigan State, @Ohio State
Don't overlook: Northern Iowa, Arkansas State, Northwestern, Minnesota
Prediction: 9-3 (@Penn State, @Ohio State, @Wisconsin)
22. Nebraska
About five spots too low.
The Huskers are circling their calendars for: @Virginia Tech, @Missouri, Oklahoma, @Kansas, @Colorado
Don't overlook: Arkansas State, Texas Tech, @Baylor, Kansas State
Prediction: 9-3 (@Virginia Tech, @Kansas, @Colorado)
23. Notre Dame
Based on record, about right. Based on who they won't beat, they shouldn't be ranked.
The Irish are circling their calendars for: @Michigan, USC
Don't overlook: Nevada, Michigan State, Boston College, UConn, @Stanford
Prediction: 8-4 (Nevada, Michigan State, USC, Boston College)
24. Brigham Young
Way too low. I'm thinking more like #9.
The Morm..I mean, Cougars are circling their calendars for: Oklahoma, Florida State, TCU, Utah
Don't overlook: Colorado State, @UNLV, @New Mexico
Prediction: 10-2 (Oklahoma, @New Mexico)
25. Oregon State
Too low. This is a mid-range team.
The Beavers are circling their calendars for: Arizona, @USC, @California, @Oregon
Don't overlook: Cincinnati, @Arizona State, UCLA
Prediction: 9-3 (Cincinnati, @USC, @California)
Should be on the list: Kansas should be where Notre Dame is. They are going to challenge Nebraska for the Big 12 North crown.