Mayweather vs. Pacquiao Prop Bets: Most Attractive Alternative Wagers
The day is almost here. Floyd "Money" Mayweather Jr. and Manny "Pac-Man" Pacquiao are actually going to fight. There's plenty of basic predictions on which iconic boxer will win this superfight, but how about a look at some of the most attractive prop bets.
Will the Fight Go the Distance?
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According to Odds Shark, the odds are drastically in favor of the fight lasting the distance. To be exact, the odds as of Wednesday night were 33-100 that the boxing community would see a full 12-round bout. While there's obviously a chance Pacquiao could win in that fashion. There's even some belief that Mayweather could finish Pacquiao in the mid-to-late rounds.
That said, you have to consider the fact that Mayweather hasn't won a fight by stoppage since 2011; Pacquiao hasn't finished an opponent since 2009.
Those numbers don't exactly scream: "there's a knockout coming!"
If it Ends Early, Who Has the Better Chance of Winning?
This is boxing, so anything can happen. If a knockout or TKO does occur, which fighter has the better chance of winning the fight?
Pacquiao would seemingly be the best candidate, but that may not be the case. The odds support that concept, but not as clearly as you might expect. Pacquiao has the most favorable odds to win by KO at 4-1. Mayweather's odds are just a bit longer at 6-1.
Here's the thing to remember with this scenario: Mayweather has obviously never lost, but you can count on one hand the number of times he's been caught flush.
He is known for his defensive prowess, and it seems unlikely Pacquiao will land a shot or series of punches to set up a KO.
Taking Mayweather would be risky, but because he's a naturally bigger man and may want to make a statement, it might be a gamble worth taking. Mayweather's career is winding down. He said in the first press conference for the bout: "I never wanted to win a fight so bad in my life."
That could be some indication he'll be more aggressive.
If a KO Occurs, Which Round Will it Be?
While we're talking about knockouts, and which fighter could score that type of win, we can dig deeper and ponder when that unlikely stoppage might occur.
For Mayweather, every round except the first and last frame have the same odds. Rounds 2 to 11 carry 40-1 odds for Money to win by KO. Rather surprisingly, Mayweather's best odds to win are in the first round. Those odds are 33-1.
None of those odds are terribly inviting, but if I were to go for it, targeting a round between the sixth and eighth is a smart move. Mayweather will have timed Pacquiao and adjusted to his speed. It's when he could potentially take control of the bout.
Pacquiao's KO odds per round have more variety. He has 33-1 in the first and 10th to 12th. The odds from Rounds 2 to 4 and 7 to 9 are 40-1, and 50-1 in the fifth and the sixth rounds. While the fluctuating odds might be a little tempting, I'd stay away from betting on a Pacquiao win by KO.
Mayweather is just too hard to hit, and when he has been caught by Mosley and Marcos Rene Maidana, he's shown the chin to withstand the shots.
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