Free MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers Odds: August 28th 2009

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers
Free MLB Pick: Detroit Tigers +115 odds (August 28th 2009)
Visit Touthouse.com for more MLB baseball picks from Mike Rose

RHP Matt Garza will get the ball from Manager Joe Maddon on Friday night. The ALCS MVP is just 7-8 on the season, but boasts a solid 3.74 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Opposing batters are only hitting .232 against him, which is a career-best figure. Of late, the right-hander has been stellar, allowing three runs or fewer in seven of his L/8 starts. Unfortunately, he is just 1-2 in that stretch. Pitching away from Tropicana Field has been no fun for Garza this season, as he is 3-4 with a 4.43 ERA in 11 starts. He’s also had absolutely no luck against the Tigers in his career, going 0-3 with a 4.94 ERA in five outings.

Rookie of the Year candidate, RHP Rick Porcello will be Garza’s counterpart on Thursday. Porcello is 10-8 with a 4.39 ERA in his first year in the big leagues. Though his 1.39 WHIP is serviceable, particularly in the American League, the right-hander has a lot of glaring problems in his statistics. His 4.83 K/9 is awfully low for a starting pitcher, and he has allowed a whopping 20 home runs in 23 starts this season. That last stat becomes particularly important against a team that has mashed 164 home runs on the season, the fifth best mark in baseball. Porcello is hoping to rebound from a poor start in Oakland in which he gave up five runs in 5.1 innings pitched. This will be the rookie’s first career look at the defending AL champs.

Something just doesn’t seem right with this line. The Rays probably do have a better team top to bottom than Detroit does, but there’s no way that they should be favored in any game of this series. The Tigers are playing .667 baseball at Comerica Park this year, and they’ve won 35 of their L/51 at home. Anything less than a split at home would be incredibly shocking. The home team has won six of the L/7 meetings between these squads. All signs point to some incredible value with the hosts, and that’s the side we’ll be backing tonight…BIG!