UFC 186: Updated Fight Odds, Picks Before Johnson vs. Horiguchi Fight Card
With the UFC 186 card official, bettors can get to throwing down with Las Vegas after a long wait.
The card itself continued to alter for quite a while, but it's hard to complain with what the promotion crafted in the end. UFC flyweight champion Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson versus Kyoji Horiguchi is a balancing act between old and new, and everyone with a stake in the sport will love to see the return of Quinton “Rampage” Jackson.
Much will unfold in the way of ladder standings in each division Saturday. For bettors, it's a chance to make decent coin, so let's take a look at the odds and other factors surrounding the event.
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Where: Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec
When: Saturday, April 25
Start Time: UFC Fight Pass prelims start at 6:30 p.m. ET; Fox Sports 1 preliminary card starts at 8 p.m. ET; main pay-per-view card starts at 10 p.m. ET
Watch: Pay-per-view
Live Stream: UFC.TV; Fox Sports Go (preliminary card)
UFC 186 Viewing Information and Predictions
| Matchups (Odds) | Weight Class | Prediction |
| No. 10 Aisling Daly (+240, 12-5) vs. No. 6 Randa Markos (-260, 5-13) | Strawweight | Markos by submission |
| Jessica Rakoczy (+142, 71-50) vs. Valerie Letourneau (-152, 25-38) | Strawweight | Letourneau by TKO |
| Nordine Taleb (-232, 25-58) vs. Chris Clements (+212, 53-25) | Welterweight | Taleb by TKO |
| Matchups | Weight Class | Prediction |
| Olivier Aubin-Mercier (-355, 20-71) vs. David Michaud (+320, 16-5) | Lightweight | Michaud by submission |
| Chad Laprise (-385, 47-181) vs. Bryan Barberena (+345, 69-20) | Lightweight | Laprise by decision |
| No. 5 Sarah Kaufman (-200, 1-2) vs. No. 3 Alexis Davis (+185, 37-20) | Women's Bantamweight | Kaufmann by submission |
| Patrick Cote (-205, 20-41) vs. Joe Riggs (+188, 47-25) | Welterweight | Riggs by decision |
| Matchups | Weight Class | Prediction |
| Yves Jabouin (+380, 19-5) vs. Thomas Almeida (-430, 10-43) | Bantamweight | Almeida by TKO |
| John Makdessi (-150, 2-3) vs. Shane Campbell (+140, 7-5) | Lightweight | Campbell by decision |
| No. 10 Michael Bisping (-145, 20-29) vs. No. 11 CB Dollaway (+135, 27-20) | Middleweight | Dollaway by TKO |
| Quinton Jackson (-245, 20-49) vs. No. 12 Fabio Maldonado (+225, 9-4) | Light Heavyweight | Jackson by TKO |
| (c) Demetrious Johnson (-780, 5-39) vs. No. 7 Kyoji Horiguchi (+620, 31-5) | Flyweight | Johnson by submission |
UFC 186 Safest Bets
No. 5 Sarah Kaufman (-200, 1-2) vs. No. 3 Alexis Davis (+185, 37-20)
What, adverse to preliminary bouts?
This one has "free cash" written all over it. Sarah Kaufman and Alexis Davis go way back, having fought in multiple promotions before Saturday's debut encounter between the two in UFC.
Kaufman won both prior bouts; the first in 2007 by technical knockout, the second in 2012 by majority decision. As FoxSports.com's Damon Martin points out, the third meeting between the rivals has all the making of an instant classic:
For bettors this seems an easy decision.
Kaufman touts two wins against Davis for good reason. Per UFC.com, she lands 7.1 significant strikes per minute to Davis' 4.98. She's at a disadvantage in takedown average, but she touts 100 percent accuracy and defends 85.71 percent of the opposition's attempts.
To further throw things in Kaufman's favor, keep in mind the globe hasn't seen Davis since a dreadful loss at the hands of Ronda Rousey in just 16 seconds last July.
While not an amazing payout, Kaufman is the obvious choice.
John Makdessi (-150, 2-3) vs. Shane Campbell (+140, 7-5)
A showdown between John "The Bull" Makdessi and "Shaolin" Shane Campbell makes for quite a sound set of entertainment given the two's love for standing in and delivering strikes no matter what.
Campbell is the underdog here, and perhaps for good reason with Saturday being his UFC debut. Still, he's an elite kickboxer with three consecutive TKO victories to his name and a handful of submission wins, showing he can work the mat if things go there.
Makdessi is an elite striker who lands at 48.08 percent accuracy, but recent fights showcase his deficiencies when he cannot just overwhelm the opposition. Look at his bout against Alan Patrick at UFC 169, where the opposition kept at range and peppered him with shots before punishing him in the clinch en route to the unanimous decision.
Given his background and track record, Campbell can do much of the same. Look for him to keep Makdessi at bay and take this one on the scorecards.
Quinton Jackson (-245, 20-49) vs. No. 12 Fabio Maldonado (+225, 9-4)
Everyone has to know Rampage is easy money, right?
The 36-year-old superstar rides a three-fight streak into Saturday, a return to the UFC after some successful time in Bellator. UFC president Dana White wouldn't throw such a major draw into an impossible situation upon his return to the promotion.
Said opponent is Fabio Maldonado, who is 1-1 over the course of his last two. On paper, he seems a sound opponent for Jackson, landing almost 61 percent of his significant strikes and connecting on 5.92 per minute, according to UFC.com.
One problem—Maldonado stands in and takes multiple shots on the chin just to achieve those averages. Against Jackson, the approach just won't work.
Still, White told ESPN's SportsCenter why the two will put on a show, per Nancy Gay of UFC.com:
"We’ll find out on Saturday night. The thing that Rampage always brings is intensity. He comes in and he tries to finish you. I love that about him. And he’s taking on Maldonado, another guy who is a finisher and loves to stand, loves to trade toe-to-toe. And those are always really fun fights.
"
Jackson has plenty left in the tank when matched with such an opponent. As he continues to show each time out, his jaw is unflappable and his strikes devastating.
Look for Jackson to take advantage of Maldonado when he attempts to stand in and trade blows. In his return bout, Jackson won't let somebody beat him at his own game.
Odds via OddsShark.com as of April 25 at 7 a.m. ET. Stats and info via UFC.com, unless otherwise specified.
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