College Football Week 12 Projections: Who Will Be Fighting For BCS Positions?

WhatIfSports.com will preview a week of the college football season each day for 15 days, including projected scores from 10,000 simulations for all FBS games and updated standings as of that week. Once we have reached the end of the season, we will present our projected bowl match-ups with results.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of Aug. 1, 2009. A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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For more information on how we generate the results and the definitions of Absolute and Expected Records, click here.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 10,000 times. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game.

The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1 percent win is different than a 99 percent win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we don't expect any to do so.

Also, since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage. We are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008. Once this step is complete, we make our modifications for 2009 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by the conference of the home team and then winning percentage of the home team, with the score reading the visitors first followed by the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95 percent chance of winning, that means that it won at 95 percent or more of the 10,000 simulations.

Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. James Madison vs. Maryland), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 12 (Nov. 21, '09).

Game of the Week: #7 LSU 27 @ #8 Mississippi 32

LSU may be ranked ahead of Mississippi as our seventh best teamin the country, but games against Florida, at Georgia, at Alabama and at Mississippi may give LSU more losses than its ranking would indicate.

In addition to their prolific offense led by junior quarterback Jevan Snead, Ole Miss also brings with them a strong defensive unit that is stingy against the run.

LSU's offense relies on the ground game with a mobile quarterback and a stable of good running backs, while the defense is probably weakest at safety. Homefield advantage is obviously going to play a role as well. Ole Miss is just a bad matchup for LSU. The Rebels win 55.1% of the time and by an average score of 32-27.

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
North Carolina State @ Virginia Tech	93.7	9-30
Virginia @ Clemson	92.4	8-24
Duke @ Miami (FL)	91.0	8-27
Maryland @ Florida State	84.7	12-30
North Carolina @ Boston College	10.6	19-8
Colorado @ Oklahoma State	95.0	9-54
Iowa State @ Missouri	95.0	17-45
Kansas @ Texas	95.0	15-47
Kansas State @ Nebraska	95.0	9-36
Baylor @ Texas A&M	5.0	38-15
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech	5.0	43-21
Louisville @ South Florida	87.4	14-31
Rutgers @ Syracuse	5.0	32-11
Minnesota @ Iowa	88.0	11-27
Purdue @ Indiana	44.2	15-14
Wisconsin @ Northwestern	20.6	22-14
Penn State @ Michigan State	16.9	22-11
Ohio State @ Michigan	5.0	30-8
Memphis @ Houston	95.0	14-46
UAB @ East Carolina	88.0	13-30
Southern Methodist @ Marshall	77.1	13-26
Tulsa @ Southern Miss	66.8	24-32
Tulane @ UCF	60.1	12-17
UTEP @ Rice	53.2	26-29
Connecticut @ Notre Dame	81.4	9-22
Eastern Michigan @ Toledo	79.4	11-25
Northern Illinois @ Ohio	67.8	14-22
Akron @ Bowling Green	65.4	19-27
Kent State @ Temple	47.8	17-18
Central Michigan @ Ball State	33.6	23-19
Buffalo @ Miami (OH)	14.6	21-9
San Diego State @ Utah	95.0	9-38
Air Force @ Brigham Young	71.4	23-33
Colorado State @ New Mexico	36.2	22-20
TCU @ Wyoming	5.0	30-9
Arizona State @ UCLA	37.2	16-14
Oregon @ Arizona	34.2	25-21
California @ Stanford	9.3	32-14
Oregon State @ Washington State	5.0	41-9
Chattanooga @ Alabama	95.0	3-52
Florida International @ Florida	95.0	4-60
Kentucky @ Georgia	95.0	6-36
Mississippi State @ Arkansas	85.7	12-28
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee	74.1	8-18
LSU @ Mississippi	55.1	27-32
Florida Atlantic @ Troy	78.4	16-30
Louisiana-Monroe @ Louisiana-Lafayette	75.7	15-25
Army @ North Texas	35.9	17-14
Arkansas State @ Middle Tennessee	21.3	22-14
Hawaii @ San Jose State	59.8	15-20
Louisiana Tech @ Fresno State	38.9	21-18
Boise State @ Utah State	5.0	34-12
Nevada @ New Mexico State	5.0	41-13

Week 12 Standings

Conference	Team	Abs Record	Exp Record
Atlantic Coast	Virginia Tech	10 - 1	9 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Georgia Tech	9 - 2	9 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Florida State	11 - 0	8 - 3
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina	8 - 3	7 - 4
Atlantic Coast	Clemson	7 - 4	7 - 4
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina State	7 - 4	6 - 5
Atlantic Coast	Miami (FL)	6 - 5	6 - 5
Atlantic Coast	Maryland	5 - 6	5 - 6
Atlantic Coast	Duke	4 - 7	4 - 7
Atlantic Coast	Boston College	3 - 8	4 - 7
Atlantic Coast	Wake Forest	2 - 9	4 - 7
Atlantic Coast	Virginia	2 - 9	3 - 8
Big 12	Texas	11 - 0	10 - 1
Big 12	Oklahoma	10 - 1	10 - 1
Big 12	Oklahoma State	10 - 1	9 - 2
Big 12	Baylor	8 - 3	7 - 4
Big 12	Kansas	8 - 3	7 - 4
Big 12	Missouri	6 - 5	7 - 4
Big 12	Nebraska	5 - 6	7 - 4
Big 12	Texas Tech	7 - 4	6 - 5
Big 12	Colorado	5 - 6	4 - 7
Big 12	Kansas State	4 - 8	4 - 8
Big 12	Texas A&M	1 - 10	3 - 8
Big 12	Iowa State	2 - 10	3 - 9
Big East	West Virginia	10 - 0	9 - 1
Big East	Rutgers	10 - 0	8 - 2
Big East	Pittsburgh	8 - 2	7 - 3
Big East	South Florida	6 - 4	7 - 3
Big East	Cincinnati	6 - 4	6 - 4
Big East	Connecticut	3 - 7	4 - 6
Big East	Louisville	3 - 8	4 - 7
Big East	Syracuse	1 - 10	2 - 9
Big Ten	Ohio State	11 - 1	10 - 2
Big Ten	Penn State	11 - 1	10 - 2
Big Ten	Iowa	10 - 2	10 - 2
Big Ten	Illinois	8 - 2	8 - 2
Big Ten	Wisconsin	9 - 2	8 - 3
Big Ten	Michigan State	7 - 5	7 - 5
Big Ten	Northwestern	6 - 6	6 - 6
Big Ten	Michigan	4 - 8	5 - 7
Big Ten	Minnesota	4 - 8	5 - 7
Big Ten	Purdue	3 - 9	3 - 9
Big Ten	Indiana	1 - 11	3 - 9
Conference USA	Houston	10 - 1	9 - 2
Conference USA	Southern Miss	9 - 2	9 - 2
Conference USA	East Carolina	8 - 3	8 - 3
Conference USA	Tulsa	6 - 5	7 - 4
Conference USA	Marshall	6 - 5	5 - 6
Conference USA	UTEP	6 - 5	5 - 6
Conference USA	Rice	5 - 6	5 - 6
Conference USA	UAB	4 - 7	5 - 6
Conference USA	Memphis	2 - 9	3 - 8
Conference USA	Southern Methodist	2 - 9	3 - 8
Conference USA	UCF	2 - 9	3 - 8
Conference USA	Tulane	1 - 10	2 - 9
Independents (FBS)	Notre Dame	10 - 1	8 - 3
Independents (FBS)	Navy	7 - 4	6 - 5
Independents (FBS)	Army	4 - 7	4 - 7
Independents (FBS)	Western Kentucky	0 - 10	1 - 9
Mid-American	Western Michigan	10 - 1	8 - 3
Mid-American	Ball State	8 - 3	7 - 4
Mid-American	Central Michigan	8 - 3	7 - 4
Mid-American	Northern Illinois	5 - 6	6 - 5
Mid-American	Ohio	8 - 3	6 - 5
Mid-American	Bowling Green	7 - 4	5 - 6
Mid-American	Akron	6 - 5	5 - 6
Mid-American	Kent State	5 - 6	5 - 6
Mid-American	Buffalo	4 - 7	5 - 6
Mid-American	Temple	4 - 7	5 - 6
Mid-American	Toledo	4 - 7	5 - 6
Mid-American	Eastern Michigan	0 - 11	2 - 9
Mid-American	Miami (OH)	0 - 12	1 - 11
Mountain West	TCU	11 - 0	9 - 2
Mountain West	Utah	9 - 2	9 - 2
Mountain West	Brigham Young	8 - 3	8 - 3
Mountain West	Air Force	9 - 3	8 - 4
Mountain West	Colorado State	5 - 6	5 - 6
Mountain West	UNLV	5 - 6	4 - 7
Mountain West	San Diego State	3 - 8	4 - 7
Mountain West	New Mexico	3 - 8	3 - 8
Mountain West	Wyoming	3 - 8	3 - 8
Pacific-10	USC	10 - 0	9 - 1
Pacific-10	California	10 - 1	9 - 2
Pacific-10	Oregon State	9 - 2	8 - 3
Pacific-10	Oregon	9 - 2	8 - 3
Pacific-10	Arizona	6 - 4	6 - 4
Pacific-10	Stanford	6 - 5	6 - 5
Pacific-10	Arizona State	5 - 6	5 - 6
Pacific-10	UCLA	4 - 7	4 - 7
Pacific-10	Washington	1 - 9	2 - 8
Pacific-10	Washington State	0 - 11	1 - 10
Southeastern	Alabama	11 - 0	10 - 1
Southeastern	Florida	11 - 0	10 - 1
Southeastern	Mississippi	10 - 1	10 - 1
Southeastern	Georgia	8 - 3	8 - 3
Southeastern	LSU	8 - 3	8 - 3
Southeastern	Tennessee	7 - 4	7 - 4
Southeastern	Arkansas	7 - 4	6 - 5
Southeastern	Vanderbilt	6 - 6	5 - 7
Southeastern	Kentucky	3 - 8	4 - 7
Southeastern	South Carolina	3 - 8	4 - 7
Southeastern	Auburn	3 - 8	3 - 8
Southeastern	Mississippi State	2 - 9	3 - 8
Sun Belt	Troy	8 - 3	7 - 4
Sun Belt	Arkansas State	8 - 2	6 - 4
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Lafayette	6 - 5	6 - 5
Sun Belt	Middle Tennessee	7 - 5	6 - 6
Sun Belt	Florida International	6 - 5	5 - 6
Sun Belt	Florida Atlantic	3 - 7	4 - 6
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Monroe	3 - 8	3 - 8
Sun Belt	North Texas	1 - 11	3 - 9
Western Athletic	Boise State	10 - 1	10 - 1
Western Athletic	Nevada	10 - 1	9 - 2
Western Athletic	Louisiana Tech	7 - 4	7 - 4
Western Athletic	Fresno State	6 - 5	6 - 5
Western Athletic	Hawaii	4 - 7	5 - 6
Western Athletic	Utah State	5 - 6	4 - 7
Western Athletic	San Jose State	3 - 7	3 - 7
Western Athletic	New Mexico State	2 - 9	3 - 8
Western Athletic	Idaho	0 - 11	1 - 10

A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at [e-mail]. Thanks!