College Football Week 11 Projections

See Who's Working Towards The BCS

WhatIfSports.com will preview a week of the college football season each day for 15 days, including projected scores from 10,000 simulations for all FBS games and updated standings as of that week. Once we have reached the end of the season, we will present our projected bowl match-ups with results.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2009. A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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For more information on how we generate the results and the definitions of Absolute and Expected Records, click here.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 10,000 times. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1 percent win is different than a 99 percent win). Since the favored team does not win every game , the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we don't expect any to do so.

Also, since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage. We are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule as well as adjusted team and player ratings from 2008. Once this step is complete, we make our modifications for 2009 based on returning starters , expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by the conference of the home team and then winning percentage of the home team, with the score reading the visitors first followed by the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95 percent chance of winning, that means that it won at 95 percent or more of the 10,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. James Madison vs. Maryland), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 11 (11/14/09).

Game of the Week: #26 Notre Dame 18 @ #40 Pittsburgh 17
Admittedly, this is not a great week for college football, but that shouldn't downplay the potential importance of this game on the BCS bowl picture. Notre Dame's schedule shapes up well for the Fighting Irish to be favored in every game except at home against USC. Obviously, 11 wins would get the team into a BCS game, but so may 10 or even 9. The game at Pittsburgh is the second toughest on the season for Notre Dame and it comes late enough in the season where the teams will know how much it means. In fact, with Pitt contending for a Big East crown, it could be that the winner of this game makes a BCS bowl and the other does not. Notre Dame has ten starters back on Charlie Weis' offense, while Pittsburgh has one of the top defenses in the Big East. In the matchup of strength vs. strength, Jimmy Clausen and company come out ahead - barely. The Fighting Irish triumph 59.1 percent of the time and by an average score of 18-17.

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
Miami (FL) @ North Carolina	56.1	12-15
Boston College @ Virginia	41.9	12-13
Clemson @ North Carolina State	25.6	19-12
Florida State @ Wake Forest	16.3	24-12
Virginia Tech @ Maryland	10.3	28-11
Georgia Tech @ Duke	5.0	34-10
Texas A&M @ Oklahoma	95.0	8-59
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State	89.0	28-47
Nebraska @ Kansas	59.8	27-33
Colorado @ Iowa State	37.9	23-21
Missouri @ Kansas State	5.3	34-14
Texas @ Baylor	5.0	43-15
Syracuse @ Louisville	82.7	12-28
South Florida @ Rutgers	53.2	21-23
Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh	40.9	18-17
West Virginia @ Cincinnati	13.3	31-17
Indiana @ Penn State	95.0	7-42
Northwestern @ Illinois	95.0	9-33
South Dakota State @ Minnesota	95.0	7-33
Michigan @ Wisconsin	78.1	13-26
Iowa @ Ohio State	68.8	13-21
Michigan State @ Purdue	9.3	18-6
Tulane @ Rice	83.7	14-30
East Carolina @ Tulsa	41.5	24-23
UAB @ Memphis	41.2	25-24
UTEP @ Southern Methodist	23.6	29-20
Southern Miss @ Marshall	8.3	31-15
Houston @ UCF	5.0	38-11
Delaware @ Navy	95.0	9-37
Virginia Military @ Army	74.4	9-18
Toledo @ Central Michigan	83.4	14-28
Temple @ Akron	63.8	15-22
Ohio @ Buffalo	43.5	17-16
Ball State @ Northern Illinois	37.5	21-19
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan	6.0	33-13
Bowling Green @ Miami (OH)	5.0	29-9
UNLV @ Air Force	84.7	18-33
Utah @ TCU	57.1	15-19
Wyoming @ San Diego State	45.5	16-17
Brigham Young @ New Mexico	5.0	37-13
Stanford @ USC	95.0	9-51
Washington @ Oregon State	95.0	9-37
Arizona State @ Oregon	91.4	11-31
Arizona @ California	88.0	11-29
UCLA @ Washington State	5.6	24-8
Auburn @ Georgia	95.0	7-38
Louisiana Tech @ LSU	95.0	10-40
Tennessee @ Mississippi	93.7	12-34
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt	86.0	8-19
Troy @ Arkansas	66.4	19-27
Alabama @ Mississippi State	5.0	39-7
Florida @ South Carolina	5.0	54-6
North Texas @ Florida International	87.4	9-27
Western Kentucky @ Louisiana-Monroe	79.4	8-22
Louisiana-Lafayette @ Middle Tennessee	57.8	16-20
Arkansas State @ Florida Atlantic	26.6	26-18
Idaho @ Boise State	95.0	7-47
Fresno State @ Nevada	87.7	16-36
New Mexico State @ Hawaii	66.4	16-23
San Jose State @ Utah State	52.5	14-16

Week 11 Standings

Conference	Team	Abs Record	Exp Record
Atlantic Coast	Georgia Tech	9 - 2	9 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Virginia Tech	9 - 1	8 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Florida State	10 - 0	7 - 3
Atlantic Coast	Clemson	6 - 4	7 - 3
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina	7 - 3	7 - 3
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina State	7 - 3	6 - 4
Atlantic Coast	Maryland	5 - 5	5 - 5
Atlantic Coast	Miami (FL)	5 - 5	5 - 5
Atlantic Coast	Duke	4 - 6	4 - 6
Atlantic Coast	Wake Forest	2 - 9	4 - 7
Atlantic Coast	Boston College	3 - 7	3 - 7
Atlantic Coast	Virginia	2 - 8	3 - 7
Big 12	Texas	10 - 0	9 - 1
Big 12	Oklahoma	9 - 1	9 - 1
Big 12	Oklahoma State	9 - 1	8 - 2
Big 12	Kansas	8 - 2	7 - 3
Big 12	Texas Tech	7 - 3	6 - 4
Big 12	Baylor	7 - 3	6 - 4
Big 12	Missouri	5 - 5	6 - 4
Big 12	Nebraska	4 - 6	6 - 4
Big 12	Colorado	5 - 5	4 - 6
Big 12	Kansas State	4 - 7	4 - 7
Big 12	Texas A&M	1 - 9	3 - 7
Big 12	Iowa State	2 - 9	3 - 8
Big East	West Virginia	10 - 0	9 - 1
Big East	Rutgers	9 - 0	7 - 2
Big East	Pittsburgh	8 - 2	7 - 3
Big East	South Florida	5 - 4	6 - 3
Big East	Cincinnati	6 - 4	6 - 4
Big East	Connecticut	3 - 6	4 - 5
Big East	Louisville	3 - 7	4 - 6
Big East	Syracuse	1 - 9	2 - 8
Big Ten	Ohio State	10 - 1	9 - 2
Big Ten	Penn State	10 - 1	9 - 2
Big Ten	Iowa	9 - 2	9 - 2
Big Ten	Illinois	8 - 2	8 - 2
Big Ten	Wisconsin	8 - 2	7 - 3
Big Ten	Michigan State	7 - 4	7 - 4
Big Ten	Northwestern	6 - 5	6 - 5
Big Ten	Michigan	4 - 7	5 - 6
Big Ten	Minnesota	4 - 7	5 - 6
Big Ten	Purdue	2 - 9	2 - 9
Big Ten	Indiana	1 - 10	2 - 9
Conference USA	Houston	9 - 1	8 - 2
Conference USA	Southern Miss	8 - 2	8 - 2
Conference USA	East Carolina	7 - 3	7 - 3
Conference USA	Tulsa	6 - 4	6 - 4
Conference USA	UTEP	6 - 4	5 - 5
Conference USA	Marshall	5 - 5	4 - 6
Conference USA	Rice	4 - 6	4 - 6
Conference USA	UAB	4 - 6	4 - 6
Conference USA	Memphis	2 - 8	3 - 7
Conference USA	Southern Methodist	2 - 8	2 - 8
Conference USA	Tulane	1 - 9	2 - 8
Conference USA	UCF	1 - 9	2 - 8
Independents (FBS)	Notre Dame	9 - 1	7 - 3
Independents (FBS)	Navy	7 - 4	6 - 5
Independents (FBS)	Army	3 - 7	3 - 7
Independents (FBS)	Western Kentucky	0 - 10	1 - 9
Mid-American	Western Michigan	10 - 1	8 - 3
Mid-American	Ball State	8 - 2	7 - 3
Mid-American	Central Michigan	7 - 3	6 - 4
Mid-American	Ohio	7 - 3	6 - 4
Mid-American	Akron	6 - 4	5 - 5
Mid-American	Bowling Green	6 - 4	5 - 5
Mid-American	Northern Illinois	5 - 5	5 - 5
Mid-American	Kent State	4 - 6	5 - 5
Mid-American	Temple	4 - 6	5 - 5
Mid-American	Buffalo	3 - 7	4 - 6
Mid-American	Toledo	3 - 7	4 - 6
Mid-American	Eastern Michigan	0 - 10	2 - 8
Mid-American	Miami (OH)	0 - 11	1 - 10
Mountain West	TCU	10 - 0	8 - 2
Mountain West	Brigham Young	7 - 3	8 - 2
Mountain West	Utah	8 - 2	8 - 2
Mountain West	Air Force	9 - 2	8 - 3
Mountain West	Colorado State	4 - 6	4 - 6
Mountain West	San Diego State	3 - 7	4 - 6
Mountain West	UNLV	5 - 6	4 - 7
Mountain West	New Mexico	3 - 7	3 - 7
Mountain West	Wyoming	3 - 7	3 - 7
Pacific-10	USC	10 - 0	9 - 1
Pacific-10	California	9 - 1	8 - 2
Pacific-10	Oregon State	8 - 2	7 - 3
Pacific-10	Oregon	8 - 2	7 - 3
Pacific-10	Arizona	6 - 3	6 - 3
Pacific-10	Stanford	6 - 4	6 - 4
Pacific-10	Arizona State	4 - 6	5 - 5
Pacific-10	UCLA	4 - 6	4 - 6
Pacific-10	Washington	1 - 9	2 - 8
Pacific-10	Washington State	0 - 10	1 - 9
Southeastern	Florida	10 - 0	10 - 0
Southeastern	Alabama	10 - 0	9 - 1
Southeastern	Mississippi	9 - 1	9 - 1
Southeastern	LSU	8 - 2	8 - 2
Southeastern	Georgia	7 - 3	7 - 3
Southeastern	Tennessee	6 - 4	6 - 4
Southeastern	Arkansas	6 - 4	5 - 5
Southeastern	Vanderbilt	6 - 5	5 - 6
Southeastern	Kentucky	3 - 7	4 - 6
Southeastern	South Carolina	3 - 8	4 - 7
Southeastern	Mississippi State	2 - 8	3 - 7
Southeastern	Auburn	3 - 8	3 - 8
Sun Belt	Arkansas State	7 - 2	6 - 3
Sun Belt	Troy	7 - 3	6 - 4
Sun Belt	Middle Tennessee	7 - 4	6 - 5
Sun Belt	Florida International	6 - 4	5 - 5
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Lafayette	5 - 5	5 - 5
Sun Belt	Florida Atlantic	3 - 6	4 - 5
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Monroe	3 - 7	3 - 7
Sun Belt	North Texas	1 - 10	3 - 8
Western Athletic	Boise State	9 - 1	9 - 1
Western Athletic	Nevada	9 - 1	8 - 2
Western Athletic	Fresno State	6 - 4	6 - 4
Western Athletic	Louisiana Tech	6 - 4	6 - 4
Western Athletic	Utah State	5 - 5	4 - 6
Western Athletic	Hawaii	4 - 6	4 - 6
Western Athletic	San Jose State	2 - 7	3 - 6
Western Athletic	New Mexico State	2 - 8	3 - 7
Western Athletic	Idaho	0 - 11	1 - 10

A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at [e-mail]. Thanks!