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UFC on Fox 15: Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions

Sean SmithApr 16, 2015

Even though it lost Yoel Romero in a middleweight bout with fellow contender Ronaldo Souza, UFC on Fox 15 still brings several intriguing matchups to Newark, New Jersey, on Saturday.

Most notably, elite 185-pounders Lyoto Machida and Luke Rockhold will meet in a contest that could produce the next middleweight title challenger behind Vitor Belfort. The clash between Machida and Rockhold will serve as the weekend's main attraction in the MMA world.

Souza remains on the card and will compete against Chris Camozzi. It's an unattractive rematch, but at least fans will get to see Jacare in action again.

A featherweight bout between Cub Swanson and Max Holloway should help with the disappointing absence of Romero. With Felice Herrig and Paige VanZant also set to appear on the main card, UFC on Fox 15 should still be a solid event.

With another UFC event approaching, here is a look at the current odds, via Odds Shark, and predictions for every main card matchup.

Felice Herrig (+130) vs. Paige VanZant (-160)

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Following a loss to Randa Markos on The Ultimate Fighter 20, Herrig rebounded against Lisa Ellis in her UFC debut. With wins over Heather Clark and Jessica Rakoczy, Herrig has shown she can be one of the best at 115 pounds, but her setbacks against top competition have led some to question her motivation.

At 21 years old, VanZant is one of the most promising strawweights around. In five pro bouts, she has only lost to Tecia Torres. A knockout win over Kailin Curran earned VanZant her shot at Herrig, which provides her an opportunity to become a legitimate title threat.

Both Herrig and VanZant have suffered decision losses to Torres, and neither has beaten a currently ranked strawweight. So, they are at similar ability levels, but the younger VanZant appears to be improving much more quickly than Herrig, who has three times as many MMA appearances.

It's going to be a close one and should go to the scorecards, but I'll take youth over experience in this situation.

Prediction: VanZant

Play: 1 percent bankroll on VanZant

Cub Swanson (-160) vs. Max Holloway (+130)

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In November, Swanson saw a six-bout winning streak come to an end in decisive fashion against Frankie Edgar. So close to a title shot before that loss, Swanson will now look to get another streak started against Holloway.

Since losing to Conor McGregor, Holloway has won five in a row. Most recently, the Hawaiian defeated Cole Miller in a decision. He's still looking for a win over a ranked featherweight, but Holloway's streak has earned him a chance to pick up that key victory against Swanson.

Aside from his knockout loss to Jose Aldo during his WEC days, Swanson has always been held back by his defensive wrestling. Holloway isn't a big threat to score many takedowns, so Swanson matches up well against his opponent at UFC on Fox 15.

Holloway rarely goes down easily, but he's going to have a tough time pulling off the upset this weekend. Swanson should be a step ahead in all areas and will get back into the win column.

Prediction: Swanson

Play: 1 percent bankroll on Swanson

Ronaldo Souza (-1400) vs. Chris Camozzi (+750)

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Initially scheduled to meet Romero at UFC on Fox 15, Souza is now set to rematch Camozzi. It's a bout that makes little sense considering how easily Souza defeated Camozzi in May 2013, but it was one of the few options the UFC had on short notice following a Romero injury.

With a split-decision loss to Rafael Natal in September, Camozzi was released from the UFC roster. Since then, he has picked up two wins, enough to earn him another shot with the world's top MMA promotion. He'll likely have to take a beating from Souza to get his foot back in the door, but Camozzi should get at least a few more chances to compete inside the Octagon by stepping up.

At UFC on FX 8, Souza ran through Camozzi en route to a submission win. It's hard to envision the rematch playing out much differently. Souza is a huge favorite, but one could argue he's still being undervalued in a matchup he should win without question.

Prediction: Souza

Play: 5 percent bankroll on Souza

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Lyoto Machida (+130) vs. Luke Rockhold (-160)

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In December, Machida rebounded from a loss to middleweight champion Chris Weidman with a knockout victory against C.B. Dollaway. Now 3-1 at 185 pounds, Machida appears to have taken a step forward by dropping down in weight after seeing his career stall a bit in the light heavyweight class.

Since being knocked out by Belfort, Rockhold has picked up three straight stoppage wins against ranked middleweights. Machida will be a step up in competition, but Rockhold has proved he's one of the best and most well-rounded competitors at 185 pounds.

While Rockhold's stand-up ability has become good, he hasn't faced an opponent with Machida's unique striking. With some of the more underrated defensive wrestling around, The Dragon does have the takedown defense to force Rockhold into a stand-up bout.

This matchup should be tightly contested no matter where it ends up, but Machida should win by shutting down takedowns and picking his shots when standing.

Prediction: Machida

Play: 1 percent bankroll on Machida

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