Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox Odds & Predictions: August 26th 2009

Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox o9.5 (-110 odds)
Wed August 26th 2009 7:10p
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I’ve never been crazy about backing a pitcher who is coming off a lengthy stint on the disabled list and today will be no different.

Tim Wakefield makes his first start in more than a month as the Red Sox host the White Sox. The 43-year old knuckleballer is back after suffering from lower back and leg problems. Those are the types of injuries that are tough on young pitchers but are magnified when you’re the age of Wakefield.

Wakefield comes in with a season record of 11-3 and an ERA of 4.31. His career numbers against Chicago are less than impressive. He’s 7-11 with a 5.11 ERA but has won three of his last four starts against the Chi Sox.

The White Sox will send Gavin Floyd to the hill as he looks to improve on his 10-8 record and 3.98 ERA. Floyd is 2-0 with a 5.74 ERA lifetime against the Red Sox.
Boston has taken the first two games of this four-game series by scores of 12-8 and 6-3. The Red Sox are 9-0 to the OVER when favored, 11-1 to the high side when favored and 14-2 to the over when favored.

Over their last ten games the Boston pitching staff has been rocked. Their ERA is 6.47 and opposing batters are feasting to the tune of an even .300 average. During that stretch the over is an impressive 7-3. The White Sox have actually pitched better over that same period (4.12 ERA) but their hitting just .259.

I’m banking on both bullpens being a little tired heading into tonight’s game. With Wakefield on a pitch count tonight we could see the Red Sox sooner rather than later.

Boston still leads the wild card race by 1.5 over Texas while Chicago has lost three straight to drop into a second place tie with the Twins. Both teams are 4.5 games behind the front-running Tigers.

Wakefield will be rusty and likely to give up a few runs early. The key will be Floyd and the Red Sox ability to get to him. I say ride the strong trend: when favored Boston has been favored they’ve been a pretty reliable OVER machine.