What Michigan State Must Improve to Beat Ohio State, Seize Big Ten in 2015
Odds Shark lists Ohio State as a 4-1 favorite to win the 2016 College Football Playoff, in part because the Big Ten, unlike the SEC, Pac-12 and Big 12, sports no other team among the top seven favorites.
The Big Ten team with the best chance of beating OSU, Michigan State, lost by 12 points at home to the Buckeyes last season, and next year must travel to Columbus.
Sparty handed Ohio State its first loss of the Urban Meyer era in the 2013 Big Ten Championship Game. After three years, it is still the only Big Ten team that knows the taste of Meyer's blood.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
But, as last year's meeting made painfully clear, it has a long way to go before it can reassume the Big Ten throne.
Here's where it most desperately needs improvements:
Pass Defense
It's alarming how fast this secondary went from strength to weakness.
One year after fielding the "No Fly Zone," a secondary replete with NFL talent, the Spartans allowed a staggering number of big plays.
| 227.3 (61) | 24 (110) | 15 (114) | 7 (105) |
Next year, the Spartans lose All-Big Ten defensive back Kurtis Drummond and projected first-round NFL draft pick Trae Waynes. In other words, a secondary that already struggled to contain big plays loses by far its two best weapons for containing big plays.
Who steps up to replace them?
At safety, Montae Nicholson and RJ Williamson seem locked into starting roles. The (much) bigger questions lie at cornerback.
Former starter Darian Hicks, whom Big Ten Wide Receiver of the Year Tony Lippett replaced in the starting lineup, must put last year behind him and regain the form he showed last offseason. Sean Merriman of BTN.com named Hicks the star of last year's spring game, and Hicks flashed potential at the start of the season too. His struggles seemed more than anything like a mental block.
Elsewhere, Sparty could use a smooth transition to cornerback from Demetrious Cox, who converted after spending his first two seasons at safety.
Fortunately, Cox found the perfect mentor in former teammate Darqueze Dennard, the 2013 Jim Thorpe Award recipient as the best defensive back in college football.
"I've already hit up Darqueze," Cox said in November, when he first learned of his position change, according to Joe Rexrode of the Detroit Free Press. "Like, 'Look, if you've got time, we're working out this summer.' And he's all for it, he's excited."
Last year, in the 49-37 home loss to the Buckeyes, Michigan State allowed six consecutive touchdown drives. Not all included big plays—in fact, many were methodical—but the pretense of the big play, which MSU knew it struggled to defend, loosened the defense so much that Ohio State looked like the Green Bay Packers.
Next year, it has to get better.
Connor Cook's Consistency
Connor Cook played an average game against Ohio State last season. He played a spectacular game in the 2013 Big Ten Championship.
Guess which game the Spartans won?
Cook is one of the best quarterbacks in college football, but he's not one of the most reliable. His accuracy, footwork and throwing motion vary from one snap to the next, which leads to inconsistent results.
Cook stands out most with intangibles: with his will to win and leadership qualities. It's not every quarterback who plows through a safety to set the tone against his school's biggest rival:
But it's also not every quarterback—or at least not every quarterback with first-round NFL potential—who infuriates evaluators with bad decisions, poor mechanics and occasional ugly plays:
There is no way—n.b., no way—Michigan State beats Ohio State unless Cook plays like an NFL quarterback. The Spartans lose their top two running backs (Jeremy Langford, Nick Hill) and receivers (Lippett, Keith Mumphrey) from 2014, so Cook must bear an even bigger load.
Ohio State's defense made Marcus Mariota look average in the CFP National Championship. All Cook has to do is outperform the 2014 Heisman Trophy winner—and to do it in The Horseshoe, no less.
Will it be easy? No. Is it likely? Not really.
But is it possible?
Cook is one of the only players for whom the answer is yes.
Defensive Identity
The 2014 Spartans weren't soft. That word has never been used, and never will be used, in reference to a Mark Dantonio-coached team.
But the 2014 Spartans were comparatively soft, albeit against the impossible standard of 2013. They didn't protect the middle of the defensive line, and they tackled inconsistently at every level.
The loss of Pat Narduzzi, one of the best defensive coordinators in college football, hurts. Narduzzi spent 11 seasons under Dantonio and won the 2013 Broyles Award but left this winter to become the head coach at Pittsburgh.
How will his co-replacements, former linebackers coach Mike Tressel and former defensive backs coach Harlan Barnett, restore the Spartans' defensive identity? It sort of got away from them last season—and that was with Narduzzi storming the sideline.
A defensive line led by Shilique Calhoun, Lawrence Thomas, Malik McDowell and Demetrius Cooper is big, strong and nasty enough to combat Ohio State's offensive line. That group can hang with anyone.
The real questions lie at linebacker, a historically strong position for the Spartans that last year suffered a drop-off.
Who replaces Taiwan Jones up the middle? How is tackling? Can he set the defensive temperature at 100 degrees Fahrenheit the same way Max Bullough, Greg Jones, et al. have in the past?
This defense wasn't mean enough to beat Ohio State last season.No defense was mean enough to beat Ohio State last season (unless you want to count Virginia Tech's).
To stop Ezekiel Elliott in Columbus, the Spartans must play like bullies, must be the hammers instead of the nails.
Otherwise, that game could get ugly.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
