Is Mississippi State RB Josh Robinson Being Overlooked in 2015 NFL Draft?
Josh Robinson—the 5'8", 217-pound bowling ball of a running back from Mississippi State—might just have a case for being the most overlooked ball-carrier in the 2015 NFL draft.
Such a claim is largely dependent on the trust in a newly available set of statistics from one of the leaders in football analytics. Otherwise, Robinson has been most commonly found outside the top 10 players in a loaded incoming class at the running back position.
Lance Zierlein of NFL.com rates Robinson as his No. 22 running back. Bleacher Report's Matt Miller placed him at the 12th-best back following the NFL combine. Dane Brugler of CBS Sports ranks Robinson at No. 18.
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But an eye-opening collection of statistics might be strong enough evidence that Robinson is being criminally undervalued ahead of this month's draft.
Pro Football Focus is now a widely used and highly respected football statistics site. The growing team at PFF pours over hours and hours of NFL game tape, assigning individual grades to every play of every game while also developing a number of unique analytical tools for NFL teams, media and fans.
The site is now diving head-first into the college game, starting an endeavor that could be a game-changer for the largely traditional-viewed NFL draft.
At the very least, PFF's recent look at the running back position should open some eyes on what Robinson can provide at the next level.
The Mississippi State product surprisingly ranked second among draft eligible players in PFF's "Elusive Rating," a signature stat that helps strip away other contributing factors to a running back's success and highlights a player's individual running ability. Missed tackles forced and yards after contact weigh heavily into the rating.
Robinson, who forced 58 total missed tackles and averaged 3.54 yards after contact, finished behind only Georgia's Todd Gurley in the stat. Many consider Gurley to be the best running back in the draft class.
| 2014 | 190 | 1203 | 11 | 6.3 |
| 2014 | 28 | 370 | 1 | 13.2 |
The elusiveness shown by Robinson didn't just come against poor competition. He also finished second in Eeusive rating against Power Five conferences, breaking 39 of his 58 tackles and still averaging over 3.5 yards after contact versus the biggest schools.
Those who have studied his tape don't believe the college production will transfer.
"Robinson appears to be lacking an NFL burst and the shiftiness needed to create more yardage for himself on the second level," Zierlein wrote, noting a lack of "differentiating talent."
The analysts at CBS Sports were even less convinced of Robinson's ability to break tackles or create extra yards in the NFL:
"Lacks great speed and elusiveness to string together moves. Not an overly creative runner and needs a hole. Powerful for his size but may lack power to break a lot of tackles at the next level. Not going to dazzle with his moves or breakaway speed.
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Yet many of the same things could have been said about the likes of Maurice Jones-Drew or Mike Tolbert, and both have gone on to produce very successful and productive NFL careers. Neither are perfect comparisons to Robinson, but it's not difficult to say that his ceiling is some kind of hybrid of the two players.
Also, the numbers at PFF might dispel the idea that Robinson isn't much of a breakaway threat.
Against Power Five opponents, Robinson produced 13 runs over 15 yards. Those 13 attempts resulted in 413 total yards, or 46.1 percent of his 895 rushing yards against Power Five competition. His percentage ranked sixth among running backs.
This isn't to say Robinson is going to be a home run hitter at the next level. He likely won't be, but breaking off big chunks of yards is more than just pure speed. Robinson appears to have the vision and second-level agility to find open spaces and make a man miss after breaking through the line of scrimmage—two vitally important traits for creating runs over 15 yards.
Jones-Drew—a 5'7" and 210-pound back—still broke off 51 carries over 20 yards and 15 over 40 during his NFL career.
It's possible Robinson's ability as a pass-catcher is being undervalued as well.
His 2014 season saw him catch 28 of his 39 targets for 370 yards. According to PFF, Robinson ran routes on 266 of his snaps, giving him a yard-per-route-run ratio of 1.39. He ranked ninth among draft-eligible running backs. Other big names, such as Melvin Gordon and Gurley, did not crack the top 10.
PFF's YPPR stat helps provide context to the simple volume numbers in the passing game. Catching passes and racking up receiving yards can often be tied to opportunity. Robinson often made the most of his chances.
Draft analysts seem to agree on his pass-catching abilities.
"Steady threat out of the backfield as pass-catcher," Zierlein wrote. "Soft hands to secure the throw and is ready to run after catch."
But there's more to becoming a three-down back in the NFL than just catching the football. Pass blocking is often a stumbling block for young players, and it appears Robinson has a ways to go in this ever-important area.
He finished in the bottom 10 for pass blocking efficiency, another one of PFF's signature stats. It looks at pressures allowed over the number of blocking snaps played to give a player's efficiency in protecting the quarterback.
Over just 53 pass-blocking opportunities, Robinson allowed six pressures, including two sacks and three quarterback hits. Repeating those numbers at the next level would be a quick way for Robinson to find himself without a job long term.
Then again, his sample size from 2014 is a small one. And his squatty, thick frame would seem to lend itself to stepping up and halting a pass-rusher, given an NFL team is prepared to work with him in the area. Identification and awareness in the passing game are oftentimes as important to being a top blocker as the physical side of the equation.
In his prime, Jones-Drew was one of the best pass-protecting running backs in the game. Again, the comparison isn't a perfect match, but it's not unreasonable to think Robinson could have a similar impact in the right situation.
There is certainly a danger in overvaluing the stats provided by PFF, especially given the necessary projection needed from the college to professional game. Traits that allow for massive success at the collegiate level don't always transfer over. Robinson might have been perfectly suited to be a handful at Mississippi State, and it's equally possible he's not slated for NFL dominance.
Then again, football is still football—regardless of level—and the sport will always be about tackling and blocking. Robinson clearly proved himself to be an elite player in making the tackling aspect difficult on the opposition.
His low center of gravity, powerful legs and agile feet give him a real chance to continue making tackling a nightmare in the NFL. Teams will want to clean up his problems in pass protection, but the production value and Jones-Drew comparisons are attractive assets to his draft stock.
Robinson might still be a forgotten man in this year's running back class, but the beauty of the NFL and the draft is that all it takes is one opportunity for a player to transcend draft position. The Mississippi State bowling ball will get his chance to make teams regret overlooking him.
Zach Kruse covers the NFL for Bleacher Report.
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