Gridiron Preview: Michigan State Vs Notre Dame (9/19/2009)

ND should not lose 3 years in a row to MSU.  This will be a tough game to win, despite it being played in the shadow of Touchdown Jesus and the loss of key players at skill positions for MSU.  Dantonio's 3rd year looks to be much less tumultuous than Weis' third year, despite the losses in the skill positions at MSU.  The road team has won 7 of the last 8 games in this series.  

The MSU game will be a tougher game than any game on ND's schedule besides USC.  It's a bad matchup for ND, despite the losses of Ringer and Hoyer -- reasons being their experience at secondary and on defense, and their propensity to run the ball well under a solid coach, Mark Dantonio.  In 2009, ND needs to prove it can stop teams who run the ball well, they have certainly not proven this the last 2 years.  

To replace Hoyer at QB, MSU has two options: one being an Oklahoma transfer (Nichol) who has not played a snap in a real game at QB, but is an older mature guy who has had time to learn the offense.  He left Norman, OK because of some no-name QB, Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford beat him out at starter.  Nichol might have a lot of upside.  Cousins wasn't highly recruited, but saw some time last year and completed 32 of 43 passes (74%).  Hoyer was adequate and his numbers were average at best, and MSU relied exclusively on their very solid run game, so both of these QB's, Cousins and Nichol, can probably at minimum approach Hoyer's level of production.  

Sparty returns 7 starters on offense.  3 returning OL, but they lost both guard and tackle on the right side (Martin and Miller).  Supposedly they have some nagging injuries on the OL this spring and fall, which is a positive for ND's tireless blitzing schemes.  MSU returns 3 receivers who caught 36 passes or more in 2008 (Dell, Cunningham, White), so they spread the ball around pretty well too.

Ringer was without question a stud workhorse... there are 4 backs vying for the starting job, including soph Glenn Winston who served 4 mos jail time in the offseason for an off campus fight that seriously injured an MSU hockey player.  Besides Winston, two highly touted freshman 4-star recruits, Caper and Baker (4.4s 40 times), are vying for the job.  A frosh starter has the potential to bode well for opposing team blitzes, but they will likely be very solid running the ball again this year, and it may present opposing defenses with a more balanced attack than last year.

The defense finished 7th in BigTen vs the pass last year and 7th overall, but those numbers are deceiving because of the big numbers Ohio State, and Penn State put up against them.   8 starters return on defense  -- including two stud linebackers: pre-season Big Ten Defensive player o the year Greg Jones and Sparty's 2nd leading tackler from 2008 LB Eric Gordon.   The high motor freak Greg Jones (#53) started as a freshman and soph, first team All Big Ten last year, led the team in tackles.  MSU also has a very deep & experienced secondary -- 8 players who have started at least one game in the secondary are back.  DE Trevor Anderson had 8 sacks last year and is back as a junior.

MSU has an easy schedule this year.  Last year they were crushed by Ohio State, Penn State, and lost in the Capital One bowl to Georgia.  They do not play Ohio State this year, and the non-Conf opponents besides ND are in the MAC (Central and Western Michigan) plus Montana State.  If ND can beat them, it will likely be a win against a 9+ win, bowl eligible team, who will likely finish in the top 3 in the BigTen.

ND must prove it can stop the run, and that they can have a balanced attack against a very solid, well coached and experienced defensive unit to win this game.  A must win game for Weis will be a hard fought victory.

Prediction:

Sparty: 24   Irish: 27