College Football Week Eight Projections! Will Your Team Come Out on Top?

WhatIfSports.com will preview a week of the college football season each day for 15 days, including projected scores from 10,000 simulations for all FBS games and updated standings as of that week. Once we have reached the end of the season, we will present our projected bowl matchups with results.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of Aug. 1, 2009. A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program with Gridiron Dynasty.

For more information on how we generate the results and the definitions of Absolute and Expected Records, click here.

To hide the details, click here.

Each regular season FBS game is simulated 10,000 times. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game.

The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1 percent win is different than a 99 percent win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account.

We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we don't expect any to do so.

Also, since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage.

We are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008. Once this step is complete, we make our modifications for 2009 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by the conference of the home team and then winning percentage of the home team, with the score reading the visitors first followed by the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95 percent chance of winning, that means that it won at 95 percent or more of the 10,000 simulations.

Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. James Madison vs. Maryland), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week Eight (10/24/09).

Game of the Week: No. 19 TCU 24 (6 - 1) @ No. 24 BYU 22 (6 - 2)

The Mountain West has three top 25teams in TCU, BYU and Utah. That can be good and bad. The good news is that there are three teams from the non-BCS conference that could make some noise nationally. The bad news is that they could all beat up on each other to the point where none of the teams can make a BCS bowl game.

TCU is the conference's best chance, but the Horned Frogs are going to have to go undefeated to make a BCS bowl. TCU plays at middle-of-the-ACC teams Clemson and Virginia, yet its true test will be this game in Provo against the offensively powerful BYU Cougars.

Senior quarterback Max Hall, junior running back Harvey Unga and senior tight end Dennis Pitta may be among the nation's best at their positions, but the rest of the BYU team is full of uncertainty. Four new starters on the offensive line will have to contend with Jerry Hughes and the vaunted TCU defense.

Advantage TCU. It may not be a pretty game that endears the country to the conference, but TCU should pull off the important victory. The Horned Frogs win 57.1 percent of the time and by an average score of 24-22.

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
Clemson @ Miami (FL)	55.1	12-16
Florida State @ North Carolina	37.9	17-14
Maryland @ Duke	24.6	23-17
Georgia Tech @ Virginia	5.0	34-8
Iowa State @ Nebraska	95.0	14-42
Texas A&M @ Texas Tech	95.0	13-42
Colorado @ Kansas State	45.5	16-17
Oklahoma State @ Baylor	11.3	43-27
Oklahoma @ Kansas	5.0	45-23
Texas @ Missouri	5.0	44-14
Connecticut @ West Virginia	95.0	6-29
Louisville @ Cincinnati	74.8	19-32
South Florida @ Pittsburgh	58.1	16-19
Akron @ Syracuse	44.9	22-21
Minnesota @ Ohio State	95.0	7-29
Indiana @ Northwestern	85.4	7-22
Iowa @ Michigan State	17.3	18-10
Illinois @ Purdue	5.0	33-9
Penn State @ Michigan	5.0	31-9
Southern Methodist @ Houston	95.0	13-48
Tulane @ Southern Miss	95.0	8-41
UCF @ Rice	82.4	11-26
UAB @ Marshall	52.2	21-24
Tulsa @ UTEP	24.9	33-27
Boston College @ Notre Dame	94	7-28
Wake Forest @ Navy	59.1	15-20
Rutgers @ Army	5.0	32-8
Buffalo @ Western Michigan	87	13-28
Kent State @ Ohio	66.1	15-23
Temple @ Toledo	55.8	15-18
Central Michigan @ Bowling Green	33.2	23-19
Ball State @ Eastern Michigan	20.6	24-15
Northern Illinois @ Miami (OH)	13.6	24-11
Air Force @ Utah	74.8	16-28
San Diego State @ Colorado State	73.8	17-27
TCU @ Brigham Young	42.9	24-22
UNLV @ New Mexico	38.2	22-20
Oregon State @ USC	95.0	9-45
Washington State @ California	95.0	4-52
UCLA @ Arizona	90.4	9-28
Arizona State @ Stanford	59.1	18-24
Oregon @ Washington	5.0	37-10
Arkansas @ Mississippi	95.0	14-43
Auburn @ LSU	95.0	8-49
Tennessee @ Alabama	95.0	8-28
Louisiana-Monroe @ Kentucky	69.4	9-18
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina	38.9	12-11
Florida @ Mississippi State	5.0	59-6
North Texas @ Troy	95.0	9-35
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee	95.0	8-26
Florida International @ Arkansas State	69.8	14-24
Florida Atlantic @ Louisiana-Lafayette	58.5	20-25
Idaho @ Nevada	95.0	7-50
Louisiana Tech @ Utah State	16.6	27-16
Fresno State @ New Mexico State	15.3	26-12
Boise State @ Hawaii	5.0	38-13

Week 8 Standings

Conference	Team	Abs Record	Exp Record
Atlantic Coast	Georgia Tech	6 - 2	6 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Florida State	7 - 0	5 - 2
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina State	6 - 1	5 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Virginia Tech	6 - 1	5 - 2
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina	5 - 2	5 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Maryland	5 - 3	5 - 3
Atlantic Coast	Clemson	4 - 3	4 - 3
Atlantic Coast	Wake Forest	2 - 6	4 - 4
Atlantic Coast	Duke	3 - 4	3 - 4
Atlantic Coast	Miami (FL)	3 - 4	3 - 4
Atlantic Coast	Boston College	2 - 6	3 - 5
Atlantic Coast	Virginia	2 - 5	2 - 5
Big 12	Oklahoma State	7 - 0	6 - 1
Big 12	Texas	7 - 0	6 - 1
Big 12	Oklahoma	6 - 1	6 - 1
Big 12	Texas Tech	6 - 2	6 - 2
Big 12	Kansas	6 - 1	5 - 2
Big 12	Baylor	5 - 2	5 - 2
Big 12	Nebraska	4 - 3	5 - 2
Big 12	Kansas State	4 - 4	4 - 4
Big 12	Missouri	3 - 4	3 - 4
Big 12	Iowa State	2 - 6	3 - 5
Big 12	Colorado	3 - 4	2 - 5
Big 12	Texas A&M	0 - 7	2 - 5
Big East	West Virginia	7 - 0	7 - 0
Big East	Rutgers	7 - 0	6 - 1
Big East	Pittsburgh	7 - 1	6 - 2
Big East	South Florida	5 - 2	5 - 2
Big East	Cincinnati	4 - 3	4 - 3
Big East	Connecticut	3 - 4	3 - 4
Big East	Louisville	2 - 5	3 - 4
Big East	Syracuse	1 - 6	2 - 5
Big Ten	Penn State	8 - 0	7 - 1
Big Ten	Iowa	7 - 1	7 - 1
Big Ten	Ohio State	7 - 1	6 - 2
Big Ten	Northwestern	6 - 2	6 - 2
Big Ten	Illinois	5 - 2	5 - 2
Big Ten	Wisconsin	5 - 2	4 - 3
Big Ten	Michigan State	4 - 4	4 - 4
Big Ten	Michigan	3 - 5	4 - 4
Big Ten	Minnesota	3 - 5	4 - 4
Big Ten	Purdue	2 - 6	2 - 6
Big Ten	Indiana	1 - 7	2 - 6
Conference USA	Southern Miss	7 - 1	7 - 1
Conference USA	Houston	6 - 1	5 - 2
Conference USA	East Carolina	5 - 2	5 - 2
Conference USA	Tulsa	5 - 2	5 - 2
Conference USA	UTEP	3 - 4	3 - 4
Conference USA	Memphis	2 - 5	3 - 4
Conference USA	UAB	2 - 5	3 - 4
Conference USA	Marshall	4 - 4	3 - 5
Conference USA	Rice	2 - 6	3 - 5
Conference USA	Southern Methodist	2 - 5	2 - 5
Conference USA	Tulane	1 - 6	2 - 5
Conference USA	UCF	1 - 6	2 - 5
Independents (FBS)	Notre Dame	6 - 1	5 - 2
Independents (FBS)	Navy	5 - 3	4 - 4
Independents (FBS)	Army	2 - 6	3 - 5
Independents (FBS)	Western Kentucky	0 - 7	1 - 6
Mid-American	Western Michigan	8 - 0	6 - 2
Mid-American	Ball State	7 - 1	6 - 2
Mid-American	Central Michigan	5 - 3	5 - 3
Mid-American	Ohio	5 - 3	5 - 3
Mid-American	Northern Illinois	3 - 4	4 - 3
Mid-American	Temple	3 - 4	4 - 3
Mid-American	Kent State	4 - 4	4 - 4
Mid-American	Akron	4 - 3	3 - 4
Mid-American	Bowling Green	4 - 4	3 - 5
Mid-American	Buffalo	3 - 5	3 - 5
Mid-American	Toledo	2 - 6	3 - 5
Mid-American	Eastern Michigan	0 - 7	1 - 6
Mid-American	Miami (OH)	0 - 8	1 - 7
Mountain West	TCU	7 - 0	6 - 1
Mountain West	Utah	6 - 1	6 - 1
Mountain West	Brigham Young	5 - 3	6 - 2
Mountain West	Air Force	6 - 2	5 - 3
Mountain West	Colorado State	4 - 4	4 - 4
Mountain West	San Diego State	3 - 4	3 - 4
Mountain West	Wyoming	2 - 5	3 - 4
Mountain West	UNLV	4 - 4	3 - 5
Mountain West	New Mexico	2 - 5	2 - 5
Pacific-10	USC	7 - 0	7 - 0
Pacific-10	California	6 - 1	6 - 1
Pacific-10	Oregon State	6 - 1	5 - 2
Pacific-10	Oregon	6 - 1	5 - 2
Pacific-10	Arizona	5 - 2	5 - 2
Pacific-10	Stanford	6 - 2	5 - 3
Pacific-10	Arizona State	4 - 3	4 - 3
Pacific-10	UCLA	2 - 5	2 - 5
Pacific-10	Washington State	0 - 7	1 - 6
Pacific-10	Washington	1 - 7	1 - 7
Southeastern	Florida	7 - 0	7 - 0
Southeastern	Alabama	8 - 0	7 - 1
Southeastern	LSU	6 - 1	6 - 1
Southeastern	Mississippi	6 - 1	6 - 1
Southeastern	Georgia	5 - 2	5 - 2
Southeastern	Tennessee	4 - 3	4 - 3
Southeastern	Vanderbilt	5 - 3	4 - 4
Southeastern	Arkansas	3 - 4	3 - 4
Southeastern	Kentucky	2 - 5	3 - 4
Southeastern	South Carolina	3 - 5	3 - 5
Southeastern	Auburn	2 - 6	2 - 6
Southeastern	Mississippi State	1 - 7	2 - 6
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Lafayette	5 - 2	4 - 3
Sun Belt	Troy	5 - 2	4 - 3
Sun Belt	Middle Tennessee	5 - 3	4 - 4
Sun Belt	Arkansas State	4 - 2	3 - 3
Sun Belt	Florida Atlantic	3 - 3	3 - 3
Sun Belt	Florida International	3 - 4	3 - 4
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Monroe	1 - 6	2 - 5
Sun Belt	North Texas	0 - 8	1 - 7
Western Athletic	Boise State	6 - 1	6 - 1
Western Athletic	Nevada	6 - 1	5 - 2
Western Athletic	Louisiana Tech	5 - 2	5 - 2
Western Athletic	Fresno State	4 - 3	4 - 3
Western Athletic	Hawaii	3 - 4	3 - 4
Western Athletic	New Mexico State	2 - 6	3 - 5
Western Athletic	San Jose State	2 - 4	2 - 4
Western Athletic	Utah State	3 - 4	2 - 5
Western Athletic	Idaho	0 - 8	1 - 7

A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Ever wanted to be in be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynastyfrom WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that. From recruiting and running practice to gameplanning and scheduling - it is all under your control. Start at DIII and try to work your way up to winning the DI championship at your favorite school.

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at [e-mail]. Thanks!